The Intel Adjusted Price on Nov 21, 2012 was $18.05.
Today's price of $33.40 is 85% above that $18.05 price.
Doesn't seem like he is either "dumb" or a "liar" to me. Seems like he could be understating my returns since Nov. 21, 2012.
IMO, using the ADJUSTED PRICE which incorporates dividends is OK since the dividends are in my pocket. He could have been clearer about what he meant by "UP".
" .... and the call contracts forced the price down."
My thinking is .... a large volume of say JAN $15 call options could be BOUGHT or SOLD or a trading mix with a net buy/sell.
Buying a deep call forces the OMM into a proxy buy/cover the equivalent shares.
Selling a deep call forces the OMM into a proxy sell/short the equivalent shares.
The culprit starts long/short/no position and ends up with a long/short/no position. I just cannot tell where he starts and where he ends. ("he" could be multiple connected or unconnected players).
I have thought that the goal was to arbitrage dividends because the constant Intel trading at the STRIKE+DIVIDEND price level, but it could be someone short to neutralize the cost of paying the "IN LIEU OF" DIVIDEND charges.
It makes my head hurt.
The increase in short interest from 137m (10/15) to 204m (10/31) is really stunning but I am not sure how much Rasgon's 11/3 downgrade of Intel by $1 had to do with it. IMO, it had nothing to do with the short interest and had more to do with the 387k call contracts traded on 11/4 just before Intel went ex-dividend. I would expect a big drop on 11/25 when the data through 11/15 is released.
As for Intel saying anything about Rasgon, it is not productive to let someone control your behavior and Intel will not let an analyst have that control over them. If the press contacts Intel for comment, Intel would say all they would ... "we see no change from our expectations".
Several years ago, following a good earnings when a slightly up forecast, Covello said (my paraphrase) .... Intel had a good quarter but we disagree with their forecast. Intel management is operating under delusions if they thing they will meet their forecast." The analyst used the word "delusion" ....
People use IDC and Gartner forecasts to calculate Intel earnings EVEN THOUGH the IDC and Gartner numbers have consistently proved less accurate than Intel's.
The article IS a new Reuter's article written by Noel Randewich. Reuters unfortunately used a stock photo of BK when BK gave the CES Keynote in January. They left the CES date on the photo for attribution.
It is a new article.
ARTICLE TITLE AND DATE.
Intel CEO sees China chip partners moving away from rival technology
By Noel Randewich
SAN FRANCISCO Tue Nov 11, 2014 2:08pm EST
CAPTION FOR THE PHOTO .... WITH DATE.
Intel CEO Brian Krzanich delivers his keynote address during the annual Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas, Nevada January 6, 2014.
Credit: Reuters/Robert Galbraith
"You hit the nail on the head"
Whew! I usually hit my thumb!
This 2010 article I looked at has a number of charts with power broken down by subsystem. It is a little dated and some parts have improved more than others but should give a rough idea.
"(typical usage situations)."
A phone or a tablet or a ???
I am not sure what you are thinking of.
A "typical usage" mode for my smartphone is to have the device in my pocket or brief case, when the radio consumes 2/3 of the power. The screen is consuming 0 but I still have to charge that thing.
When I talk on my phone (another typical use for me) the screen is blank and consuming 0 power again.
When I give my phone to the kids for games, I think the CPU, RAM and graphics subsystems are consuming more than the screen.
An area that Russ did not talk about was the other impact areas that having memory be non-volatile of some kind. Instant ON and instant OFF will give the device the user an impression of power and speed far above what he has in his hands.
"hoping for 40 to break even hurts doesn't it?"
I think you are the only one holding since 1999.
That goes a long way explaining why you are angry.
Everyone else here bought long after.
Most bought in the $20 area and are quite pleased. .
Oh .,.... that custom logic thing again. It would be a rare problem where you could collapse 1 hour of computing down into 2 seconds ...1600x. You are only going to get 1600x in the near future IF you are able to tackle the algorithm used too. You won't be able use general purpose computing changes alone.
"if yer a good EE with extensive knowledge about these chips, ..."
I wish you all the success you deserve, but I think I will pass on the challenge.
"This stock seems to be very sluggish but is near always controlled by various options trading."
Intel was on the WSJ Buy on Weakness list today. I did not think it would drop back to $33.00 strike + dividend today but it made it.
Both are correct.
The law says 30 minutes UNLESS there is sufficient liquidity in the stock. If the stock is liquid (trades $1m daily) then the 10 minute rule applies.
"Timing. Repurchases cannot occur as the opening transaction reported in the consolidated system or near the close of trading because trades at those times tend to have a disproportionate influence on the direction of trading.26 Previously, no Rule 10b-18 repurchase could occur during the last 30 minutes of trading, regardless of the liquidity of the market for the security being repurchased. The amended timing condition permits repurchases of securities that meet certain liquidity requirements until 10 minutes prior to the scheduled close of trading. To qualify, the stock must have an average daily trading volume during the four weeks prior to the repurchase (ADTV)27 of at least $1 million in value and a public float value of at least $150 million. Repurchases of all other eligible securities must continue to adhere to the 30-minute limit"
"Like say, Intel asking the MM to deliver say 100 or 300 million shares. "
If you ask the Intel Investor Relations contact OR read about the Lehman Bros lawsuit against Intel, you would know that Intel does not buy shares in the open market nor do they request anything of the MM. The Lehman lawsuit descriptions match what the Intel IR rep says .... Intel contracts with an agent to purchase shares for them. Intel does not buy shares themselves. The contract with the agent has always said "volume weighted" shares. That means that it is in the Intel hired agent's best interest to get the shares at a bargain price and then charge the volume weighted price to Intel.
I think it is also illegal for a company or agent to trade in its own shares during the first and last 10 minutes of the market.
"AnyBuddy else experiencing excessive heat issues with that flaky i7 on long running programs, huh? "
So, you think "long running programs" generate more heat than short ones? 8-) Alright ..... Please step away from the hardware ..... slowly now ...... no sudden moves.
Which "flaky i7" are you talking about? Can share the i7 product number? There are several versions of i7.
"Even a large fan doesn't do the friggin job."
Was the large fan in the same room?
Did you have the computer cover removed?
How many feet in diameter was the fan?
"Any INTC genius know if friggin Broadwell chip has that same issue, huh?"
What heat issue?
"The real numbers will come out over the next couple of years."
The numbers will continue to come in starting next week and then the big discussion will be between "published rates" and "counterfactual rates" (the rates if the government did not get involved). There will be some early distortion in the rates caused by states not adopting Medicaid expansion and hospitals and doctors having to make up for the increased number of uncovered who will not be able to pay their health bills. Society will bear the cost either directly or indirectly. These programs are not black or white but will have problems. The current Congress was motivated to amplify problems and minimize successes rather than to make it work in their attempt to kill it.
"My opinion is that ObunglerCare has no chance of "bending the cost curve". It will do what most government controlled programs do- ration and dole out to favored groups."
I am not sure who you think the "favored groups" are other than people who have no health coverage today. They already affect your rates today because their costs are folded into today's medical costs. They postpone preventive care and their emergency care costs are folded into your rates. The Walmart health care subsidy is one example.
Anyway, good luck.
It is usually pretty easy to tell when I am stating my "opinion" and when I am stating what I think is a "fact". The rate changes I quoted from the Chicago Tribune and I think those numbers are fairly accurate.
I can change my opinion as a result of reasoned arguments. Name calling and insults have very little positive influence. You seem intelligent and articulate enough to make your case with out them.
I hope I am wrong but ....
It is my opinion (JMO) that there will be substantial time invested in the "impeachment process". I don't think that "prospects of success" will change the direction any more than the likelihood of House success when they voted repeatedly for Obamacare defunding.
I expect (JMO) that there will be ACA defunding, voter right "protection" or "women's health" amendments attached to every bill sent to the president for his signature. I expect that many will be vetoed because of these amendments. I expect increased difficulty in getting appointments confirmed. I hope you are right and I am wrong but I am extremely pessimistic.
"The Republicans plan to legislate for the next two years."
I agree with you. 8-)
"Democrats will vote against good legislation that the people want and Obumbler will veto it all."
I agree. There will not be 100% agreement on what is "good legislation". BOTH parties will not always be right.
... and I agree ... the President will veto more bills in the next two years than Congress sent to him during all of the last two years.
"In 2016, we will have a bigger wave election "
2016 will be interesting. The party in power has been evicted for the last several elections. The party coming in has incorrectly assumed that their success was a vote of confidence for them.
" ... and maybe the end to the socialist wing of the Democrat Party that is now running the country into the ground."
Both parties are guilty of crimes against the people.
The buyback in Q3 affected the EPS by about 1 cent.
- cost of dividend payments on retired shares
+ interest income on the buyback money if kept in the bank.
? affect on EPS estimates by analysts who considered the buyback in their estimate calculations.
The Q3/2014 Intel earnings were $3.317B.
The Q3/2014 fully diluted shares was 5,045,000,000.
The Q2/2014 fully diluted shares was 5,123,000,000.
The forecast Q3 EPS estimates were $0.65.
The $3.317b on those Q3 5,045,000,000 shares is $0.657482656 (extra digits are mine) and everyone rounded to $0.66.
The Q3 $3.317b income on the Q2 5,123,000,000 shares generates an EPS of $0.647472184 (extra digits are mine).
The buyback seems to INCREASE the EPS by a $0.01 or by 1 cent.
"LOL. I cant wait for impeachment talk to start when most American see a huge increase in their health premiums on 1/1/2015. "
The Republicans will not need any reason to start the impeachment process. The impeachment process will consume the time normally used to govern without angering the voter base. Impeachment has become a planned governing strategy and it will consume most of the next two years. Misinformation works.
The Chicago Tribune just published Illinois (after election) rates for 2015.
November 7, 2014 8:22pm
Premiums for the lowest-cost options in the most popular group of plans will rise 2.6 percent on average statewide, although rates for those so-called silver plans will vary widely, from a decrease of 5 percent to an increase of 12 percent, the Illinois Department of Insurance announced Friday.
Rates for the lowest-cost plans, called bronze, will increase 11 percent on average.
SuperComputing Conference & Expo - New Orleans, November 16-21, 2014
Product announcements likely: Silvermont core version of Xeon PHI and systems. One from SCI based on Haswell Xeon.
12/02/14 Credit Suisse Technology Conference
Speaker: Renée James, President of Intel Corporation
12/03/14 Nasdaq Investor Program in London
Speaker: Hermann Eul, GM & VP of Mobile Communications Group
"It has been well documented that they thought he just had the flu."
8-) Yes. Otherwise, the hospital might be legally and financially liable for their decision as negligent. You can believe the hospital's story 100% and that is OK with me. I believe their story less than 100% because the resulting negligence lawsuits would be very expensive.
"I suspect you are showing a liberal, Northeast bigoted attitude against Southerners with that statement."
No. Do you believe the hospital's version of events 100.00%? I doubt it. BTW, my comment had nothing to do with North or South. It was just a comment on a possible motive other than "we thought this guy just had the flu" after he told them he had been to Ebola-ville.
"If your insurance premium didn't go up, it is probably because you are getting a big subsidy- aka welfare. "
No. I pay taxes and benefit financially from all the tax cut legislation. Flat rates and 0% increases are not going to be as uncommon as you would like. I think I dated the Oct 20th information and since open enrollment starts next week 11/15, we will get more answers.
"The Obama regime has told the insurance companies to use unrealistic assumptions in their pricing and if they turn out to be wrong, they will be adjusted."
True .... "if the rates turn out to be wrong". So you think that all the insurance and health businesses involved .... colluded to underprice their rates and everyone kept the secret? When was the last time that any secret like that was kept?
"I wouldn't brag about the Oregon ACA experience. The last I heard, they never did get their website to work and had to give up on it."
I wasn't bragging about the Oregon ACA experience. I was simply quoting facts from a FORBES article. 8-) The rates that the Oregon (and other states) insurance companies "publish" are slightly different than whether the Oregon website works or not. The INSURANCE RATES for Oregon are expected to drop. The website will either be fixed or abandoned.
"Wait until Jan 1 2015 when most Americans, young & old, will realize their health premiums just jumped without much notice. "
You are probably right. A number of them will realize how Obamacare is throttling rate increases in states that adopted it and will have some hard questions for their officials.
The data, as of Oct 20th, indicated a 6% average increase. The rates in Oregon are even decreasing.
The changes are not uniform but most of the larger increases (more than 10%) are in states that did not adopt Obamacare. The higher rates in those states will have to make up for increased uncollectible bills from patients who are not covered by Medicaid. With more uninsured people, the doctors, hospitals and clinics have a higher percentage of non-collectable bills .... higher operating costs.
The Texas hospital that treated the Ebola patients is on the hook for most of the $millions cost of that effort. That may have been why they discharged patient #0 .... no health insurance coverage.
My health insurance rate is unchanged for the first time I can ever remember.
" Unfortunately, there is no 'must have' wearable yet."
IMO, they are here and their value is just sinking in. Health monitoring is big.
How about a wrist band or ear plug that measures your temperature and transmits that temperature to doctors monitoring you for Ebola 100 times a day instead of manually measured?
The cost of missing a manually measured temperature change is very expensive.
How about outfitting the large percentage of a small country (Liberia) to control a major outbreak? The cost of the devices ($20 to $30 for non-connected devices) vs cost of waiting until infected.