What is your favorite site to get your "futures information"? I check Bloomberg and they never seem to match the data you post. What site do you use?
"Sell 1/2 and take a chill pill. BTW, Bobby was me professor @ veritas et lux, and I got an A."
Already sold 1/2 and no need for the "chill pill".
I thought Prof. Shiller taught PHd level courses. Which course did you take from him?
"OMG, HUGE plunge in Futures. Large down day tomorrow"
Hmmm ... you are easily spooked.
Futures are currently unchanged and have been unchanged all evening. Are these the "futures" you are seeing?
Dow Jones Indus. Avg -2.00
S&P 500 -0.50
NASDAQ 100 -0.75
Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings ratio
Shiller said CAPE at 26 was extreme. 3 years ago
Shiller said that CAPE at 23 was extreme.
Shiller ALSO said that the CAPE smoothed for earnings was within normal range. The CAPE model was established from data from the "steel industry" era that does not hold today with expanded FED balance sheet.
"Sounds like something a pinheaded hedge fund might think is a good idea"
It also sounds like something a regular hedge fund would do too. 8-) It also sounds like it could be an insurance company or pension plan.
5,000 contracts at a 70 cent debit implies (if it was a single investor) they were using $350,000 of their cash and margin headroom for the 500,000 shares.
There could also be other parts of a combo trade to lower the $350,000 cost and that is likely.
There is some put option trading in the Sept monthlies. 6,000 $35.00 put contracts and 5,000 $33.50 put contracts appears to be a BEAR PUT SPREAD where they are buying the $35 and selling the $33.50 put contracts. Seems like they are paying 70 for an expected $33.50 Intel close on Sep 20th.
One guess might be an expected sell off after IDF and IFA2014.
A 70 cent bet to make $1.50 that appears to encourage the option market maker to short some shares to hedge his holding.
"What's INTC done lately, huh?"
During the last 5 days, Intel has outperformed the market.
A "5-day" window IS "lately".
"marco the genius :-) Alex_dumb_bum, you take stuff two seriously."
You think I take you seriously? 8-)
Don't worry. I don't.
"Well, well, here we are again."
.... can you explain what you mean by "again"?
Intel has substantially outperformed the market since Q4/2012.
5 day chart ... INTC outperformed market by 1%
1 month chart ... INTC outperformed market by 0.5%
3 month chart ... INTC outperformed market by 20%
6 month chart ... INTC outperformed market by 35%
YTD chart ... INTC outperformed market by 25%
1 year chart ... INTC outperformed market by 30%
Home builders were "high flyers" today
The market was up about 1% and Goldman Sachs bashed the semis (SOXX).
Compare with TXN who closed unchanged.
Some closing quotes .....
ITB was up 2.0% (DJ home construction ETF)
IHB was up 1.83% (home builders)
IBB was up 1.06%
DJI was up 1.07%
COMPX was up 0.97%
SP500 was up 0.85%
INTC was up 0.80%
SMH was up 0.42%
SOXX was up 0.40%
TXN was up 0.0%
Seems like a "frontal attack" on semi conductors did not work too well for him so he downgraded the whole SOXX and gave all his negatives. Intel is 9.5% of the SOXX. The SOXL, SOXS, ..... so all the sympathetic negative trading affects Intel.
The PUT/CALL ratio is currently 1.78 and normally is expected to be in the 0.50 range. Option activity does not seem to be very large but the 5,000 contract put option series (2015) are all in the $30 to $28 range. The trading behavior implies PUT buying so it appears to be cheap insurance for a big sell off.
Day range: $33.97 - $34.30
Bounced off $34 OPTION STRIKE area and chugged back up to STRIKE + DIVIDEND.
PUT/CALL option ratio is currently 1.40 which indicates 3x as many put options as "normal".
I suspect that the INTC should fall in line with the market and be up .... as soon as it breaks the $34.22 related arbitraging.
"motivation for smartphone theft will decrease sharply when the ASP's of smartphones drops below $200 and even further when they drop near $100. "
Yep! That will change the risk/reward ratio and make the thefts and especially armed robberies really drop.
"where does the kill switch stop?"
There is an interesting article from SFWEEKLY "The Life of a Stolen Phone" which was taken home by a BART cop. The article points out incentives that cause the theft rate to rise ... increased revenue/profits for everyone in the industry. The phone is typically the link to the person's account, personal information, .... and the other devices are (I think) IO ports through the smartphone nearby. They don't have as much personal information that makes the ID vulnerable.
The hard wired kill switch is just a way to lower the market value of the stolen device so they are not taken. I doubt that the mandated hard wired kill switches will become a universal answer.
CLIP ... incentives ....
"The manufacturer profits by hawking a replacement phone; the carrier profits double, by locking the crime victim into a new contract, then opening an account with whomever ends up with the stolen phone. Telecom companies even profit from the specter of phone theft, by selling expensive insurance policies to protect their users."
It will be interesting.
Premiums on health insurance exchanges are forecast to rise nationally by an average of 7.5 percent next year, according to a new analysis (Health Research Institute at Price Waterhouse Coopers). It would have been smaller but some states will be hit with larger increases to cover failure to expand Medicaid coverage. However, when the "we did not expand Medicaid" states start publishing their increases, the 7.5% is likely to increase.
The $716 billion cut from Medicare they moved to cover Medicaid expansion will be used to pay Medicaid costs ONLY in states that expanded.
States that did not expand will see drop in Medicare funding and increased non-payment problems. Premiums will go up to cover the increased medical bill non-payments.
It looks like a 5% increase if your state adopted Medicaid expansion and 10% increase if your state did not expand. Many of the non-expanding states have not published their new figures yet, so Indiana has the largest increase so far.
Oregon -2.5% DROP.
California +4% increase.
Indiana +15.4% increase. (highest so far reporting rate changes for 2015)
University of Toronto, Andres Lozano gave a very interesting TED TALK on the use of deep brain stimulation for treating Parkinson's, depression and shaking symptoms. Bio solutions are making stunning progress. He was able to control the symptoms of a young boy with dystonia which had twisted his body to the point where he was only able to crawl on his stomach.
Yesterday, Intel had a HIGH/LOW of $34.23 / $33.74
Today's HIGH/LOW range so far is $34.21 / $33.71.
A high of STRIKE ($34.00) plus DIVIDEND, to
a low of STRIKE ($33.50) plus DIVIDEND.
IMO, the option market maker continues to trade to prepare from the quarterly "arbitrage attack". This last quarter he had to absorb 1.2mil contracts which is the size of liquidity he has to deal with. This drains the BETA and causes the Intel trading price support/resistance points.
Intel has always been tinkering with Biometrics, but Otellini accelerated this effort years ago. The collections of companies are starting to coalesce into real products that make a difference.
The Michael J. Fox Foundation and Intel Join Forces to Improve Parkinson's Disease Monitoring and Treatment through Advanced Technologies
Intel Newsroom on Aug 13, 2014 9:15:02 AM
Intel acquiring gesture recognition start-up InVision Biometrics
Intel acquires Idesia Biometrics
Biometric Gun Safety at Your Fingertips
Boulder, Colorado, student and Intel International Science and Engineering Fair (Intel ISEF)1 2013 Grand Award winner Kai Kloepfer invents a biometric electromechanical firearm safety solution that identifies a registered user’s fingerprint to permit or deny access to gun operation.
"Stop it, stop it, stop it already, okay? That was Karen's stuff. So she got a little carried away and left a couple or three tiny things out. I betcha yer knot perfect either."
I am NOT perfect, but this was a "newbie" error. If that is "Karen's stuff" then just walk her through the new numbers and see if a "genius" can also be a patient, respectful teacher. She will appreciate it. It is an easy error to make for a beginner.
Intel only traded FIVE days above $140 shortly after the 2:1 split was announced. March 2000. Intel only traded above $130 for 19 trading days: March 17th through Apr. 12th.
Whenever you see someone talking about "INTEL" and "$140 stock price" in the same sentence, you can quickly assume they are inexperienced.
"Yinz dew da math, okay?"
A little. Your math seems correct. "Yinz" seems to have messed up on your facts. Not a big surprise. 8-)
You might want to correct some of your errors if you want it to be more accurate. I included a couple ideas for you, if you want to try making your INTC calculations look worse.
1. Your first error is forgetting to include the 2:1 stock split on July 31, 2000. Since Mar. 2000 shares would be doubled, you can divide the $145.38 by 2 to get the adjusted stock price for comparison. That was a pretty fundamental goof.
Mar, 2000 $72.69 (adjusted down for 2:1 split)
Aug 2014 $33.94
2. If you are going to the trouble of adjusting for the CPI, then you probably should include the $6.594 per share in INTC issued dividends. You probably just want to add the dividends back in but there was likely some income on those that probably matched much of the CPI change.
Mar, 2000 $72.69
Aug 2014 $40.534 (adjusted up for $6.954 in dividends)
3. If you think that anyone who bought in March 2000 still owns shares, then you can make the comparison look worse than a CPI change. Why not compare it to some alternative investment that did really good during that time. Maybe SP500. The SPY closed at $196.76 and in March 2000, SPY was $106.09. Up 90%. Or find the BEST performing stock over that period.
4. There was also $33.506 in dividends issued by SPY, so you can make it even worse, if you chose to go through those calculations.
"$50 per share rather quickly"
It really depends on your definition of "quickly". IMO, STUNNING, surprise news would be required. Otherwise, it will be a slow grind as revenues increase. Think "years".
"Very Nice Dividend Now"
"Now, I can see a Special dividend on the way with all That Cash on hand"
Nope. Won't happen.
They would apply cash toward debt before a one-time special dividend.
"20nm base band"
Does it make sense for the base band to be the first 20nm component?
What can be gleaned from the first 20nm part being a base band component rather than any other part?