"Can marco tell yaz what it will be, before it is, or what?"
"marco" has predicted ALL 42 of the last 8 down days.
Trying to figure out "supply" is difficult if all you use is the RETAIL BOX version of the CPU. SkyLake requires a new 1151-pin motherboard so an individual retail box CPU is useless by itself.
Knowing this, I suspect retailers are marking up the RETAIL BOX CPU prices so they can make their motherboard+CPU+"whatever" combo pricing appear more attractive. When they artificially inflate the price of the boxed CPU (for combo pricing), they affect the Ashraf/AnandTech CPU box pricing graphs.
IMO, neither Ashraf nor AnandTech knows the answer and we will find out 1/14/16 at 2:00 PM PT during the Intel earnings call.
TUESDAY, there will be some pre-show activities:
WHAT: Intel CEO Brian Krzanich will deliver the pre-show keynote address. He will highlight the key trends accelerating the next wave of computing innovation and showcase how Intel technology is reshaping experiences across multiple aspects of daily life.
WHEN: Tuesday, Jan. 5, 2016, 6:30 p.m.
Why do you think November 2015 ARMH press release is important?
No one else in the tech community seems to think this is important. This ARMH Corporate press release did not impress anyone when the 2016-chip was announced early last November and has created no industry noise since.
"I am a little concerned about today's move on low volume"
Seems like INTC is tracking the other semis. I was expecting some strength based on the unwinding of the ALTR arbitrage positions.
Ashraf comes to a conclusion "Demand for this chip-maker's products is apparently so good that the company and its partners are hiking prices".
"although "most graphics card players" have failed to register unit growth in 2015, their revenues are expected to surge "at least 20%" thanks to price hikes."
Curiously, if unit volumes are flat and prices are being raised, doesn't that imply a shortage based on "yield" and "availability" ?
Seems like the same type of conditions that lead Ashraf to proclaim SkyLake had problems due to Intel 14nm yields.
"Sounds like your[sic] worried INTC is going to cut the dividend"
Nope! If I was worried, I would sell.
Your confession and your surrender, however, are accepted.
"Companies only cut the dividend if they need the cash for something else like purchasing other companies"
No. Companies don't cut the dividend to purchase other companies.
Can you name any company that cut a dividend for that reason?
Companies only cut dividends because their financial health has deteriorated.
You are certainly informed enough to know that.
"Could you explain why you think INTC will cut the dividend? "
Intel has a target to return 40% of free cash flow as dividend and they just increased their dividend. That means they have more than 2x headroom on FCF and can see future product and revenue stream that supports that increase. Intel would probably pay dividends beyond 100% of FCF temporarily rather than cut the dividend.
A "dividend cut" comment today has no basis in fact.
"Very astute observation."
I think your analysis is much more astute.
The QQQ ETF started in March 1999 and was the probable buyer of most of the shares that were "bought" during the bubble peak. Probably the biggest source of buyers during the bubble were the shorts who were forced out and had to cover shorts at the peak.
If you look at the INTC chart during that bubble peak period, it has the classic form of a short squeeze. That is why the drop was so dramatic.
IMO, INTC is not going to double nor is INTC going to drop by half ... unless the same happens to the general market. The "buy" vs "sell" bickering on the board can be ignored without any loss of information.
"It is going to dip below $33 after big rally this morning...I wanna get in at $32 or lower..."
Dipping below $33.00 today is unlikely and acquiring at or below $32.00 depends on the direction of the general market.
IMO, the technical charts for Intel are being messed up by the ALTR acquisition. You have merger arbitraging that is generating extra selling pressure on Intel, balanced with the buying of ALTR. With the Chinese approval this morning, the ALTR purchase is expected to close on Monday. I would not be surprised with some additional downward pressure until then.
"The "first derivative" is still positive but the "second derivative" negative."
This will certainly make everything "clear" for them.
8-) lol ... thumbs up
ARMH hit a new 52-week high on Feb 18, 2015 when it traded above the then current 52-week high of $50.20. That was more recent than 719 days ago. 10 months since Feb. is about 300 days.
ARMH went on to hit a series of new 52-week highs following that Feb 1th 52-week high.
ARMH has not exceeded its all-time high of $55.26 in 719-days is an accurate way of saying it.
Maybe that explains the hugely, fantastical, dramatic, substantial, sizable, marked, appreciable, significant, notable, noteworthy, remarkable, extraordinary, exceptional, phenomenal PLUNGE in the market !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!
The EC passed law: companies who breach privacy will be fined up to 4% of their revenues. Do you think that might be why MSFT (Bing), GOOG, FB, .... might be weak?
Hmmmmmmmmm? I dare you to do some research or did you already get snookered?
My! My! Overwhelmed with panic? 8-)
Did we gets some margin calls????
"Shortage" makes for better click-bait. 8-) This is the second or more articles that Ashraf has written on this topic in the last week or so. I tend to agree with you.
I think the supply is also appears distorted because Intel may be limiting retail box quantities and steering volumes into the tray quantity buyers. I am not sure how Intel prices their RETAIL box versus their tray pricing but I assume Intel will charge more for a 3-year warranty and the packaging.
The SkyLake CPU requires a new motherboard because Intel moved the VR external to the motherboard.
The CPU also requires DDR4, which few people will have laying around.
My 6700k system ships today as scheduled.
"When Intel reaches near $38 again which will be its 52 week high"
When Intel reaches near $38 again, it will be the highest since January, 2001 .... a couple weeks short of a 15-year high.
"HAHA! NIce dance, old man. "
You have more experience than I do old timer.
Never argue with stupid people,
they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience.