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Research and Analysis
"Dead $$$ that's all this stock is"
If you are standing with your back to the future and comparing today with 10 years ago, then "yes".
If you are taking advantage of the dividends and option premiums and low BETA, trading range, then "not so much".
Intel should finish near $26.50 unless the market sells off. $26.50 is the nearby strike that the market has Intel orbiting.
I probably would not even consider taking a new position until after ex-divdend and the post ex-dividend sell off. The ONLY way I would buy today would be .... a BUY-WRITE trade. Buy shares and sell something like a JULY $25 covered call to protect for the downside drop. There is a 28 cent premium and you get the 22 cent divdend for a 50 cent return on $26.50 in 3 months. .50/$26.50 = 7.5% annualized.
7.5% "income" with 20% downside protection is a little better than the "FILTH" you talk of.
How to these 3 companies performance today relate to the "PC upgrade" story? or Intel? Just curious about what the point was.
From Forbes article ...
"Of course, there is a large overlap between the old XP population and those likely to buy a new PC anyway, but even assuming two-thirds of them are double-counted, that’s still an extra 67 million units."
The author discounted the 200m by 2/3 down to 67m machines that would be incremental. If one assumes that 50m are incremental upside candidates for Intel, then a $100 ASP would indicate a $5b one time, upside for Intel. Lots of assumptions but the $5b can be moved up/down as assumptions are adjusted.
The dividend adjustment will be incorporated for Monday at opening but I know that Schwab usually trades most of the day without the adjustment showing up in its INTC price. .... ie "unchanged price" will look like a 22 cent loss.
I would expect unusually low BETA trading tomorrow with the strike prices having some extra attraction. Narrow trading range. Since the option premium is the highest at the strike, the option market maker tends to execute a majority of the limit trades near the strikes.
What I find interesting to watch is the option premium as the market closes. The premium shifts almost 100% into the put and 0% in the calls.
The RECORD DATE (T+3) where they take the shareholder list is 5/7.
Tomorrow is "T".
"After the close of business on the day before the ex-dividend date and before the market opens on the ex-dividend date, all open good-until-canceled limit, stop, and stop limit orders are automatically reduced by the amount of the dividend, except for orders that the customer indicated "do not reduce." This is done because the dividend payout will decrease the value of the company, as it comes directly from the company's reserves. At the market opening on the ex-dividend date, the stock will trade at a lower price, adjusted for the amount of the dividend paid. If a corporation is distributing something other than a cash dividend, such as rights or warrants, then the relevant date is called an ex rights date, or ex warrants date, etc."
..... or ....
3. INTC finishes at $26.50 independent of what the COMP does because today establishes the shareholder of record list for the dividend. INTL goes ex-dividend on Monday and the option market maker is preparing for the dividend arbitragers.
I would expect INTC finish within cents of $26.50 today.
Geo-political risks ... Ukrainian unrest and potential sanction escalation impact. Iran or North Korea do something dumb.
one you would like .....
Value Stock ETFs See Big Inflows in April. Those "value" stocks
Larger, cheaper stocks were spared. Many even prospered in April. Intel Corp., Cisco Systems Inc., International Business Machines and Hewlett-Packard Co. all delivered market-beating gains.
1,700 $26.50 put contracts expire today.
21,000 $26.50 put contracts expire next Friday
both are weekly series but the next week's are after the stock is adjusted down for dividend.
The majority holder for today's puts is likely the option market maker and smaller retail wrote them and they are happy.
In addition to the 90k .....
20k Jan 2015 $18 and 20k more $15
11k Jan 2016 $18 calls
The deep in the money calls have near zero premium. Nov 2011 there was 650k deep ITM call contracts.
IMO, it is part of some arbitraging strategy.
Today the stock has the 22 cent dividend.
Today, the call holder will lose rights to the dividend at the close.
Today, the put holder will gain the price drop caused by the dividend adjustment at the close.
Exercise the 9mill shares today.
Take the dividend.
Exit using the higher target calls that you sold for a premium ... like at $25 or $24 ...
Steal the 22 cent dividend from someone and exit for a short gain.
NOTE that if anyone sold a covered call and it now is deep in the money and has near zero premium, they are subject to early exercise.
Watch for large blocks to cross the tape near or after the close as the option exercises are settled.
Watch for the high volume trading and notice that the lower strike should not affect open interest but the higher strike ones will.
IMO, it is neutral and strictly an arbitrage play. I think it is the reason for the low INTC BETA. It does mess up the technical and ...
Someone is putting pressure on the option market maker.
At the instant of market close, value shifts from call options to put options and from the shares.
They look for and establish the capability to enter and exit the stock with a locked in profit.
It could also be a short who does not want to pay the dividend and will acquire the shares to cover shorts and then start shorting again tomorrow.
After you have described your problem, you have seemed to describe a problem that I have seen on a Dell Pro 8 too. I daughter was using it at home and then when she powered it on In a restaurant, had wifi problems.
It seems like the local retail wifi hotspots are being overwhelmed by devices. It almost seems like there are too many devices for it to lease valid IP addresses that work with their net supplier.
Webcast through the Intel Investor Relations website. It looks like Tuesday 10am PT.
If the announcement were "big", wouldn't there be different presenters? Two VP's are participating.
Intel and Google Press Briefing
05/06/14 -10:00 AM
Speaker: Navin Shenoy, VP and GM, Mobile Computing Group
Also presenting is Caesar Sengupta, Vice President, Product Management at Google
butane is right about the adaptor.
You may have to solve the problem for your future laptop too. Many of the new thin, full sized laptop designs don't have the wire ports either. The new Ultrabook spec doesn't seem to leave room for any of the full size connectors other than possibly USB. Micro and nano version connectors are much more common.
I am still trying to train my brain to use the mouse-finger combo .... I am too lazy to disturb my keyboard-resting hands.
"4 false, pc sales are declining this year, anyways i was talking a little more long term...."
Not really .... It really depends on at least two "assumptions" you are making. You are using numbers from IDC/Gartner who have changed the definition of the "PC" several times in the last couple of years and will likely again.
1. How you "define" as a PC. IDC and Gartner, who are used for all the numbers, are defining anything with a detachable keyboard as a "tablet" if you are using the numbers that are originally source from IDC and Gartner.
2. Whether the IDC and Gartner numbers are accurate. Intel stopped giving PC CPU forecasts about 4 years ago because the IDC and Gartner numbers were low, AND the companies had no way of tracking or estimating the builds.
Well .... he was right. A couple shares did trade at $25.99 before INTC moved back up. In a down market INTC is unchanged (ex-dividend adjusted) when the market is generally down. I am surprised that INTC is so strong today. It usually sells off.
The NASDAQ Composite is what I was using and it was red when I posted and is currently red 0.05% ... near unchanged. I think you are looking at the NASDAQ 100 which is a little more green than the NASDAQ composite today. .
The DJI was/is red.
The SP500 was/is red.
So, AE, can you describe the "error or two in the article" that the monk is referriing to?