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Intel Corporation Message Board

alexander.dumbass 326 posts  |  Last Activity: 3 minutes 54 seconds ago Member since: Nov 27, 2010
  • alexander.dumbass alexander.dumbass Jun 4, 2014 9:29 AM Flag

    There is $946m worth of Intel 2005 Junior subordinated convertible debentures due 2035 at 2.95% outstanding. Those have a conversion price (page 82 of 2013 10k) of $28.90 which is adjusted down for dividends above 10 cent (the 2005 dividend rate). The current conversion price is $28.65, SO .... when Intel gets to $28.65, there will be hedge funds with convertible bonds that will provide 33 million shares they can short.

    I think (unless there is some news) that $30 is not imminent and there will be some grinding through that $28.50 level.

    Above $28.65, they can short (or short equivalent) the stock against the bonds with the bond income and cover on the dips.

    IMO, $30 will not be easy without some news .... like a Covello capitulation or ....

  • alexander.dumbass alexander.dumbass Jun 3, 2014 2:35 PM Flag

    "Smart money is short."
    Best oxymoron of the day.

  • Reply to

    Intel Core M - Looks Awesome

    by mega.hurts Jun 3, 2014 10:54 AM
    alexander.dumbass alexander.dumbass Jun 3, 2014 1:17 PM Flag

    Very good!
    After some more reading, I don't if the 32 hours is correct. I copied it from an material but .... that seems too good to be true. One descript of the reference design said it used a 32Watt hour battery and there might be some confusion.

  • Reply to

    That's it

    by itakebackmyapology Jun 3, 2014 11:26 AM
    alexander.dumbass alexander.dumbass Jun 3, 2014 12:03 PM Flag

    There is JUL 19th monthly option activity. A trader appears to be SELLING the $27 PUT options and BUYING the $26 .... BULL PUT SPREAD where they expect the price to finish above $27 and are buying the $26 as insurance on the downside. They are pocketing 30 cents per share at a risk of $1 if INTC drops. So far today, they have traded 7,000 to 8,000 contracts.

    7,000 contracts ..... pocketing $210,000 while risking the $790,000.

    That seems like a "big boy" betting on INTC above $27 through the summer.

  • Reply to

    Intel Core M - Looks Awesome

    by mega.hurts Jun 3, 2014 10:54 AM
    alexander.dumbass alexander.dumbass Jun 3, 2014 11:50 AM Flag

    But only 32 hours of battery life ....Llama Mountain

    Today’s Llama Mountain prototype presented at Computex is an ultra-thin Windows 8.1 computer shoved into a tablet.

    Because of the small size of the motherboard, the 12.5-inch tablet can house more batteries. The board is flanked by two batteries that give the device 32 hours of battery life. The tablet without the keyboard is 670 grams and is 7.2mm thick. It’s thinner than an iPad air but running Windows 8.1 Pro.

  • alexander.dumbass alexander.dumbass Jun 3, 2014 10:32 AM Flag

    Based on only empirical events, one possibility and/or example would be BMO Capital Markets. They downgraded Intel at exactly the point a very large option trade (1mill contracts+), failes to deliver spiked and large volumes pointed to an organized trade.

    Intel declared is Q3/2011 dividend on 9/22/2011.
    Intel when ex-dividend on 11/3/2011.
    November 2, 2011, the day before ex-dividend, during market trading hours BMO Capital analyst covering Intel downgraded Intel.

    BMO Downgrades Intel, Upgrades ARM Holdings; All About Servers...
    November 2, 2011 2:38 PM EDT
    An analyst at BMO Capital, Ambrish Srivastav, downgraded Intel to Market Perform Wednesday morning, while at the same time upgrading ARMH.

    DATE #FailsToDelverShares Price
    20111024 10,142 $24.04
    20111025 6,571 $24.59
    20111026 494,407 $24.63
    20111027 11,606 $24.70
    20111028 4,898 $25.13

    20111031 .... 38,499 .... $24.98
    20111101 ... 10,596,564 .... $24.54 NOTICE on 11/1 the fails to deliver jumps from 38k to 10.5mil.
    20111102 .... 11,131,138 .... $23.89 ... then BMO Downgrades Intel, Upgrades ARM Holdings
    20111103 .... 40,200 .... $23.85
    20111104 27,971 $24.20
    20111107 869,091 $23.74
    20111108 264,647 $24.28
    20111109 45,231 $24.75
    20111110 80,461 $23.84
    20111114 86,637 $24.85

    Date Close Volume Change
    7-Nov-11 $24.28 51,137,900 $0.54
    4-Nov-11 $23.74 46,476,000 $(0.46)
    3-Nov-11 $24.20 58,297,700 $0.35
    3-Nov-11 e
    2-Nov-11 $23.85 56,626,000 $(0.05)
    1-Nov-11 $23.90 68,002,400 $(0.64)
    31-Oct-11 $24.54 43,121,800 $(0.44)
    28-Oct-11 $24.98 44,897,400 $(0.15)
    27-Oct-11 $25.13 84,559,200 $0.43
    26-Oct-11 $24.70 58,249,900 $0.07
    25-Oct-11 $24.63 60,939,200 $0.04
    24-Oct-11 $24.59 138,273,600 $0.56 increased volume
    21-Oct-11 $24.03 123,273,100 $0.42 increased volume
    20-Oct-11 $23.61 88,682,000 $(0.63)
    19-Oct-11 $24.24 139,956,200 $0.84 increased volume
    18-Oct-11 $23.40 85,272,200 $0.12
    17-Oct-11 $23.28 47,936,100 $(0.22)

  • Reply to

    Intel Bringing 14nm FinFET to Market

    by wallisweaver May 19, 2014 10:42 AM
    alexander.dumbass alexander.dumbass Jun 3, 2014 9:19 AM Flag

    Samsung should just skip 14nm like they did 20nm and implement 10nm and take the lead. 8-)

  • Reply to

    Broadcom up 10% on baseband sale rumor

    by alexander.dumbass Jun 2, 2014 9:49 AM
    alexander.dumbass alexander.dumbass Jun 2, 2014 10:13 AM Flag

    It seems (from their phone call) that the products were for mid- to low-end smartphones so I am not sure how much IP will go with it. I was expecting Intel to focus on parts with higher value. Being a big core person, I am still struggling to understand the jargon and products of the baseband, modem, .... .

  • alexander.dumbass by alexander.dumbass Jun 2, 2014 9:49 AM Flag

    Hmmmm.

  • alexander.dumbass alexander.dumbass Jun 1, 2014 9:12 PM Flag

    Goldman Sachs increased their total number of shares by 8.8mil shares to 32.3mil shares in Q1.

    Institution.................Portfolio Position ... Filing Date ....Total Shares ...Value ......Change in Shares
    GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC/ 38 - 2014-03-31 32,317,436 $834,242,000 8,834,723

  • alexander.dumbass alexander.dumbass May 31, 2014 9:40 PM Flag

    "The last recession was not a "financial panic"."
    All financial panics meet the test for a "recession" but not the reverse. It was a "financial panic" that resulted in the sudden drop in value of market capital of all homes and stock markets. The financial panic of 2008 generated a world wide recession.

    All the things you suggest, were a factor but were not the key factors.

    wiki
    "The term financial crisis is applied broadly to a variety of situations in which some financial assets suddenly lose a large part of their nominal value."

  • alexander.dumbass alexander.dumbass May 31, 2014 8:08 PM Flag

    for some more bond arbitrage info search for
    convertible bond arbitrage wiki

    Insidermonkey shows that Oaktree Capital Management hedge fund owns $85m worth of Intel Convertible bonds. It does not say whether they are 2005 or 2009 (different conversion price). $85m translates into 85,000 bonds and will translate using the $21.77 price give 46 shares per bond. These bonds translate into 3.5m to 3.9m shares.

    Oaktree is not always on the right side of the law. ..

    "In 2005 the Securities And Exchange Commission ordered Oaktree to pay a fine, interest, and disgorge profits after the SEC ruled they had "sold securities short" before the five legal business days after a public offering pricing had gone public. "

  • Reply to

    Intel currently at the 52 week high.

    by paul.ottelini May 31, 2014 6:43 PM
    alexander.dumbass alexander.dumbass May 31, 2014 7:08 PM Flag

    The AH trading was pretty nice. INTC was pinned at the $27.22 level much of the day with the option market maker likely shorting for hedges but late increased buying chewed through that. 4m shares traded near close and pushed INTC to new high.

    19:53 $ 27.35  100
    19:38 $ 27.36 High 200
    19:38 $ 27.36 High 300
    19:30 $ 27.35  150
    19:30 $ 27.35  200
    18:58 $ 27.32  1,781 - Cancelled Trade
    18:45 $ 27.32  28,100
    18:42 $ 27.34  39
    18:31 $ 27.35  10
    18:20 $ 27.34  300
    18:08 $ 27.35  300
    18:03 $ 27.35  100
    18:03 $ 27.3499  100
    17:43 $ 27.33  100
    17:30 $ 27.35  200
    17:11 $ 27.3093  48,225
    17:05 $ 27.32  100
    16:53 $ 27.32  200
    16:43 $ 27.3173  516
    16:39 $ 27.32  500
    16:37 $ 27.315  9,920
    16:36 $ 27.32  24,187
    16:35 $ 27.32  551
    16:34 $ 27.2335  15,000
    16:33 $ 27.3159  4,710
    16:32 $ 27.3277  8,300
    16:32 $ 27.3124  165,077
    16:30 $ 27.32  497,070
    16:30 $ 27.32  84,416
    16:30 $ 27.32  579
    16:30 $ 27.32  21,055
    16:30 $ 27.32  2,435
    16:30 $ 27.32  3,078
    16:29 $ 27.3129  3,872
    16:28 $ 27.3091  30,200
    16:27 $ 27.32  24,477
    16:27 $ 27.3145  2,297
    16:27 $ 27.3255  2,184
    16:26 $ 27.32  24,477 - Cancelled Trade
    16:26 $ 27.3234  1,600
    16:25 $ 27.3234  57,200
    16:25 $ 27.316  2,098
    16:25 $ 27.324  8,448
    16:25 $ 27.32  24,477
    16:24 $ 27.3166  43,005
    16:24 $ 27.3234  202,550
    16:23 $ 27.3271  68,727
    16:23 $ 27.3129  433,957
    16:23 $ 27.32  1,831
    16:23 $ 27.318  385

  • alexander.dumbass alexander.dumbass May 31, 2014 5:28 PM Flag

    "Shorts are the slum of the earth"
    Active short sellers are more like scavengers. They look for carcasses and swoop in. They detect the corporate walking dead and take action (Enron, Lehmann Bros, Bear Stearns, ....). The dumb shorts think that an alligator is a log. They lose a limb or more and can only make the mistake a couple times before they run out of limbs.

    Selling part of a long position can be viewed as a "proxy short" depending on how bullish someone is.
    Selling an AT THE MONEY Call option is a real "proxy short". The call option seller is betting on a price drop.
    Buying a put option is a "proxy" short. The buyer is expecting the price to drop.

    Intel has had a very good run up. I expect it to pull back and I can chose to act or not on that opinion. I closed out the short put options that I had written. If Intel goes up much more, I will probably write some calls on a portion of my position .... expecting a retrenchment.

  • alexander.dumbass alexander.dumbass May 31, 2014 5:13 PM Flag

    "I can't help but conclude that anyone who wants economic suffering for political reasons is a total and complete pinhead."
    I think that those people are much, much worse than "pinheads". The ones who are guided or manipulated by those people are the "pinheads". "Pinhead" is a measure of intelligence and therefore lack of it.

    "It is difficult to believe anything other than the short crowd has a very significant number of constituents who are pinheads."
    IMO, there is no "short crowd", I think as you mean the term, and I know that is counter to many people. We just have a difference of opinion.

    "The bottom line is that the economy is getting better and the bullish case for the markets and Intel is stronger now than the bear case"
    The economy recovers much more slowly after a financial panic than a business cycle recession. The last several previous recessions have been helped by an increase in the number of state and local employees. This time, the number of state and local workers has been cut. It is complex and those arguing both sides use "counterfactual arguments" that are at best ... educated guesses.

  • alexander.dumbass alexander.dumbass May 31, 2014 3:22 PM Flag

    It would be nice to know what "shorts" think and some of the strategies they use. I think there are two groups of shorts who can stay short for years.

    The funny thing is .... that I have never seen anyone who advocated any reasonable "short strategy". I have seen the silly posts from the "sell now", "get out", "Intel is tanking", "the futures are bloody", ..... "the shorts are piling in" crowd. That is worthless noise. IMO, also, the unsupported "Intel is going $50, $40, $30, ...." is not much more useful beyond just being an opinion.

    #1. Inverse ETF will be short shares.
    There will always be some owner of an inverse ETF of the SP500, Russell or Dow index funds. Forever shorts.

    #2. Owners of the "2009 Junior subordinated convertible debentures due 2039 at 3.25%" can stay short until 2039.
    Owners can short Intel shares against the conversion and lock in a guaranteed profit when Intel reaches a certain price. The current conversion price is $21.77 and drops each dividend more than 14 cents. They get 3.25% interest on the note and a dropping conversion rate. When the yield of the note plus the dropping strike price exceeds the cost of shorting by enough, they can short Intel, lock in guaranteed cash flow from a neutral, risk free position. The current dividend yield is 3.3%. Any guess why their is resistance at the current price? 8-) The $1b of notes converts into about 90m shares.

  • Reply to

    Why is there no short covering

    by itakebackmyapology May 30, 2014 10:21 AM
    alexander.dumbass alexander.dumbass May 30, 2014 10:30 AM Flag

    Jun 6th put options.
    5000 contracts
    They are buying the $27 at 15 cents and selling the $26.50 at 5 cents to defray costs for a 10 cent debit.
    It is a 10 cent bet to make 40 cent max profit on Intel trading below $26.90 before Jun 6th.

    The option market maker has to hedge against getting those 500,000 shares by shorting some Intel shares.
    Arbitraging.

  • Reply to

    Why is there no short covering

    by itakebackmyapology May 30, 2014 10:21 AM
    alexander.dumbass alexander.dumbass May 30, 2014 10:24 AM Flag

    Short interest has declined the last 3 reporting periods.
    Shorts are not piling in.

  • Reply to

    BOOHYEAH INTC !

    by williamdavis960 May 30, 2014 9:41 AM
    alexander.dumbass alexander.dumbass May 30, 2014 10:20 AM Flag

    New 52-week high with no resistance prices above. INTC closes .... guess ... at $27.22 if market stays same.

    INTC still has to chew through the shorting that will happen around $28.90 generated by the 2005 Convertible Notes. The notes convert into 32m shares.

  • Reply to

    INTC printing $27.30...$30 in next 2 weeks

    by backbay_bstn May 30, 2014 9:57 AM
    alexander.dumbass alexander.dumbass May 30, 2014 10:07 AM Flag

    Option activity in OCT $30 calls has been high. 25,000 contracts traded earlier in the week. If you look at Jan 2015, it looks like the 80k+ call contracts point to a CALL SPREAD. The same is true with $30 and $35 strikes. They buy the low strike and sell the higher to offset the cost of the buy.

    I predict a 17.349% probability of Intel printing $30 before OCT 18th at 2:53ET.

INTC
34.7901+0.7301(+2.14%)4:00 PMEDT

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