Everything you have said on this board could be replaced by a "STOP SIGN" so there is nothing to learn from your posts so far.
Demonstrate that you are smarter than a "hunk of metal on a stick" and I would be interested. Otherwise, your empty warnings are just "constant negative noise".
I thought the bashers say that LOW VOLUME on the upside is bad.
Now they say that HIGH VOLUME is bad too? Hmmm.
I am surprised (and pleased) to see INTC above $28 BUT I cannot figure out any public news "why". It looks like the "big boys" know something and you were "Putin'ed" and left out of the meeting. Sorry about that, but it seems like they made a correct decision.
However, Intel finishing at $28 is a guess I would also make just because $28 is an option strike price that will attract it. Option trading strike price gravity is a theory of mine. I am going to call it "DYNAMIC MAXPAIN". Notice that trading stalled at $28.00 strike + 22 cent dividend.
It happens every April. Employee option awards vest and there is always someone on this board who thinks that "vesting" and the resulting tax withholding is a sale and tries to convince others.
I can locate about 5,000 SOLD shares total that were sold in APRIL and 520 shares in MAY. 5,500 shares total.
MAY SALES: 520 shares SOLD
May 19, 2014 JAMES RENEE JOOfficer 520 share REAL SALE
TAX SALE ONLY
May 16, 2014 KRZANICH BRIAN MOfficer 1,080 share SALE: vesting option tax liability
May 16, 2014 KRZANICH BRIAN MOfficer 2,069 shares "BUY" ... BK still owns. Basis changed to market.
TAX SALE ONLY
May 16, 2014 JAMES RENEE JOOfficer 541 share SALE: vesting option tax liability
May 16, 2014 JAMES RENEE JOOfficer 1,061 shares "BUY" ... Renee still owns. Basis changed to market.
APRIL SALES: 3,749 shares SOLD
Apr 25, 2014 HOLT WILLIAM MOfficer 3,749 share REAL SALE
Apr 24, 2014 HOLT WILLIAM MOfficer 3,895 share SALE: vesting option tax liability.
Apr 24, 2014 HOLT WILLIAM MOfficer 7,644 shares "BUY" ... Holt still owns. Basis changed to market.
Apr 25, 2014 KILROY THOMAS MOfficer 3,749 share SALE: vesting option tax liability.
Apr 24, 2014 KILROY THOMAS MOfficer 7,644 shares "BUY" ... Holt still owns. Basis changed to market.
APRIL SALES: 2,059 shares SOLD
Apr 25, 2014 JAMES RENEE JOOfficer 2,059 share REAL SALE.
Apr 24, 2014 JAMES RENEE JOOfficer 4,862 share SALE: vesting option tax liability.
Apr 24, 2014 JAMES RENEE JOOfficer 9,541 shares "BUY" ... Renee still owns. Basis changed to market.
Apr 24, 2014 SMITH STACY JOfficer 4,979 share SALE: vesting option tax liability.
Apr 24, 2014 SMITH STACY JOfficer 9,541 shares "BUY" ... Stacy still owns. Basis changed to market.
Apr 24, 2014 BRYANT ANDY DOfficer 4,875 share SALE: vesting option tax liability.
Apr 24, 2014 MELAMED ARTHUR DOUGLASOfficer share SALE: vesting option tax liability.
Apr 24, 2014 MELAMED ARTHUR DOUGLASOfficer 7,252 shares "BUY" ... Renee still owns. Basis changed to market.
tiglet2l .... Wallis made a wrong prediction in Aug 2013. It was not the first nor will it be the last for him or anyone else who makes predictions based on assumptions. However, I am not sure what that has to do with my post.
If Intel zooms directly to $30, I will have been wrong and .... I guess you can repeatedly post my wrong expectations too. I would much prefer you to add own your assumptions and calculations to the board discussion to add content.
There is $946m worth of Intel 2005 Junior subordinated convertible debentures due 2035 at 2.95% outstanding. Those have a conversion price (page 82 of 2013 10k) of $28.90 which is adjusted down for dividends above 10 cent (the 2005 dividend rate). The current conversion price is $28.65, SO .... when Intel gets to $28.65, there will be hedge funds with convertible bonds that will provide 33 million shares they can short.
I think (unless there is some news) that $30 is not imminent and there will be some grinding through that $28.50 level.
Above $28.65, they can short (or short equivalent) the stock against the bonds with the bond income and cover on the dips.
IMO, $30 will not be easy without some news .... like a Covello capitulation or ....
After some more reading, I don't if the 32 hours is correct. I copied it from an material but .... that seems too good to be true. One descript of the reference design said it used a 32Watt hour battery and there might be some confusion.
There is JUL 19th monthly option activity. A trader appears to be SELLING the $27 PUT options and BUYING the $26 .... BULL PUT SPREAD where they expect the price to finish above $27 and are buying the $26 as insurance on the downside. They are pocketing 30 cents per share at a risk of $1 if INTC drops. So far today, they have traded 7,000 to 8,000 contracts.
7,000 contracts ..... pocketing $210,000 while risking the $790,000.
That seems like a "big boy" betting on INTC above $27 through the summer.
But only 32 hours of battery life ....Llama Mountain
Today’s Llama Mountain prototype presented at Computex is an ultra-thin Windows 8.1 computer shoved into a tablet.
Because of the small size of the motherboard, the 12.5-inch tablet can house more batteries. The board is flanked by two batteries that give the device 32 hours of battery life. The tablet without the keyboard is 670 grams and is 7.2mm thick. It’s thinner than an iPad air but running Windows 8.1 Pro.
Based on only empirical events, one possibility and/or example would be BMO Capital Markets. They downgraded Intel at exactly the point a very large option trade (1mill contracts+), failes to deliver spiked and large volumes pointed to an organized trade.
Intel declared is Q3/2011 dividend on 9/22/2011.
Intel when ex-dividend on 11/3/2011.
November 2, 2011, the day before ex-dividend, during market trading hours BMO Capital analyst covering Intel downgraded Intel.
BMO Downgrades Intel, Upgrades ARM Holdings; All About Servers...
November 2, 2011 2:38 PM EDT
An analyst at BMO Capital, Ambrish Srivastav, downgraded Intel to Market Perform Wednesday morning, while at the same time upgrading ARMH.
DATE #FailsToDelverShares Price
20111024 10,142 $24.04
20111025 6,571 $24.59
20111026 494,407 $24.63
20111027 11,606 $24.70
20111028 4,898 $25.13
20111031 .... 38,499 .... $24.98
20111101 ... 10,596,564 .... $24.54 NOTICE on 11/1 the fails to deliver jumps from 38k to 10.5mil.
20111102 .... 11,131,138 .... $23.89 ... then BMO Downgrades Intel, Upgrades ARM Holdings
20111103 .... 40,200 .... $23.85
20111104 27,971 $24.20
20111107 869,091 $23.74
20111108 264,647 $24.28
20111109 45,231 $24.75
20111110 80,461 $23.84
20111114 86,637 $24.85
Date Close Volume Change
7-Nov-11 $24.28 51,137,900 $0.54
4-Nov-11 $23.74 46,476,000 $(0.46)
3-Nov-11 $24.20 58,297,700 $0.35
2-Nov-11 $23.85 56,626,000 $(0.05)
1-Nov-11 $23.90 68,002,400 $(0.64)
31-Oct-11 $24.54 43,121,800 $(0.44)
28-Oct-11 $24.98 44,897,400 $(0.15)
27-Oct-11 $25.13 84,559,200 $0.43
26-Oct-11 $24.70 58,249,900 $0.07
25-Oct-11 $24.63 60,939,200 $0.04
24-Oct-11 $24.59 138,273,600 $0.56 increased volume
21-Oct-11 $24.03 123,273,100 $0.42 increased volume
20-Oct-11 $23.61 88,682,000 $(0.63)
19-Oct-11 $24.24 139,956,200 $0.84 increased volume
18-Oct-11 $23.40 85,272,200 $0.12
17-Oct-11 $23.28 47,936,100 $(0.22)
It seems (from their phone call) that the products were for mid- to low-end smartphones so I am not sure how much IP will go with it. I was expecting Intel to focus on parts with higher value. Being a big core person, I am still struggling to understand the jargon and products of the baseband, modem, .... .
Goldman Sachs increased their total number of shares by 8.8mil shares to 32.3mil shares in Q1.
Institution.................Portfolio Position ... Filing Date ....Total Shares ...Value ......Change in Shares
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC/ 38 - 2014-03-31 32,317,436 $834,242,000 8,834,723
"The last recession was not a "financial panic"."
All financial panics meet the test for a "recession" but not the reverse. It was a "financial panic" that resulted in the sudden drop in value of market capital of all homes and stock markets. The financial panic of 2008 generated a world wide recession.
All the things you suggest, were a factor but were not the key factors.
"The term financial crisis is applied broadly to a variety of situations in which some financial assets suddenly lose a large part of their nominal value."
for some more bond arbitrage info search for
convertible bond arbitrage wiki
Insidermonkey shows that Oaktree Capital Management hedge fund owns $85m worth of Intel Convertible bonds. It does not say whether they are 2005 or 2009 (different conversion price). $85m translates into 85,000 bonds and will translate using the $21.77 price give 46 shares per bond. These bonds translate into 3.5m to 3.9m shares.
Oaktree is not always on the right side of the law. ..
"In 2005 the Securities And Exchange Commission ordered Oaktree to pay a fine, interest, and disgorge profits after the SEC ruled they had "sold securities short" before the five legal business days after a public offering pricing had gone public. "