In all seriousness, no pharma will pay more than a 100% premium give or take a bit. That makes a max offer at less than 1 billion. If there is a buyout offer, we will not hear about it because it won't be entertained at these levels.
Always, I certainly agree and I believe they will succeed. I'm nearly certain. But it hasn't happened until they accomplish it. That's one of the advantages shorts have--things are slow moving in bio.
We cannot count on Zika to drive share value. If you look up and down the MB, that is the main theme. I want to see 3112 results. 3100 starting p3, hiv results, and a large number of other SIGNIFICANT results. Please forget Zika. Itll happen whenever it does. This is only benefiting swing traders.
Yes I recall your post. I expected some to jump in but wasn't expecting Sanofi to do so this quickly. I suspect they had already made up their mind but were waiting for the right time--WHO announcement-- to do so (positive PR).
Happy to hear that oh_my_dear. I truly do hope that all of the real longs will be rewarded one day and one day soon. There are 3 things today may have represented: 1) Addition of Sanofi to the Zika vaccine chase; 2) bad market day with IBB down nearly 3%; and 3) Profit taking. When all was said and done, we held up pretty damn well. GL
Certainly not discounting that. If funding is covered, I think they'll be able to demonstrate a very fast response time. That exposure would be priceless.
If you believed INO would go up every day because of Zika, then you were sorely mistaken. I believe today's drop was due to Sanofi's announcement that they will develop a Zika treatment. The immediate reaction IMO was that INO would lose the battle against Sanofi. Although I disagree with that notion, Sanofi does have a major advantage---funds. They can use whatever funds they want to develop their treatment. I'm not certain that INO will do the same. They will likely depend on grants. I've written this in 2 other posts that I remember: keep your eyes on the central theme. Zika is just in the periphery.
Yags, I would say 1) past failures, and 2) that the efficacy signal came through exploration of the stroke dataset. It is fair to do that in p2 to clarify the appropriate endpoints for 2b or 3, but there is no slam dunk that p3 will be successful. Bio's have been revalued so it'll be hard to gain traction with this sentiment.
We should not get caught up with Zika. Yes, it's nice to get a little attention, but that attention can be a negative when the problem isn't deemed that important any longer (i.e. see Ebola). What we should grasp is the big picture. And the big picture is absolutely huge. GL longs!
Sorry if I misstated, but I was referring to post-p1 safety trials. Could be an interesting debate at that point if the virus is still a major threat.
You are correct. In reality you vaccinate women of child bearing age. Probably not important in the rest of the population. I would argue that vaccinating infected pregnant women would actually be a situation where benefit outweighs risk.
Simple, you make sure they're not pregnant.
But all kidding aside, vaccinating a pregnant woman is different than vaccinating everybody else. Pregnancy changes the immune system so that the fetus is not attacked by T cells. All in all, changes in local immune responses, that is in the uterine mucosa, and changes in peripheral immune responses are seen.
If a vaccine works in non-pregnant individuals, that doesn't mean that the immune response will be adequate in pregnant women. Perhaps this is a job for low dose IL12 or another activator? This will be interesting.
Soupmister. I don't know all of the companies you've referenced. I'll take a look. I see your point. As an aside, this is the first time I've seen Inovio move with hype. It didn't participate so much during the Ebola crisis. The company actually has an amazing pipeline. If it were up to me, I wouldn't want this kind of stock attention.
Thank you vinosolano. Wise words.
If you look at the 1 year chart, it has spent most of its time between 7-9. This drop to 5 is an anomaly due to intense biotech weakness during this market pullback. The current price is still very cheap. Inovio has an extremely large pipeline and many announcements are expected in the coming weeks to months. I don't care what you do. It's not my money. Many shorts, particularly in bio, don't even do simple DD before they short it. This is not very smart in this case.
If I wasn't young, I don't think I could handle the volatility here. I'm still worrying that we're moving too fast and based on momentum/speculation. Not exactly a fundamental rise; then again we didn't have a fundamental decline. This company is still extremely undervalued.
We can completely speculate on why the delay for p3. It could be positive. It could be as simple as administrative choice, late data collection. I'd like to think it's much more than that. I'd like to see the CIN weapon a little stronger and I'm hoping that's the end result. I would bet a 3112 combination for HPV/CIN would be with Medi once again. It's too hard to separate out indications for the same drug IMO.
They probably cant use 3112 without altering the agreement with Medi. Remember, they also have 2 other IL's sitting on the sidelines. Not sure if data on those will be extensive enough to allow for p3 use. Lets wait and see. Itll be interesting