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AMCOL International Corporation Message Board

algo41 40 posts  |  Last Activity: 21 hours ago Member since: Jun 12, 2000
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  • Reply to

    tender offer

    by algo41 Mar 27, 2015 9:39 AM

    Steve, I realized my speculations didn't make sense - as you pointed out, they were significantly under-subscribed the last time they did a Dutch auction. Interestingly, I had called the CFO on another small company I have shares in with a question. After clarifying, he asked me how I thought they were doing with their stock buyback (that's what I think he asked). It seemed like an odd question to ask me but he didn't seem confused by my response so I think I heard the question correctly.

  • The more the stock goes up, the more some shorts feel the need to post every 10 minutes. Posts rarely impact stock price, even when they have something new and significant to say. I guess it makes the shorts feel better. And the fact is, if not for tax consequences, I would sell some MCD myself. Maybe all day breakfast can be made to work without causing even worse service.

  • algo41 algo41 Apr 22, 2015 8:53 AM Flag

    Presumably, people think there is going to be a multi-year turn around. Certainly, getting rid of Thompson was a step forward. Still, I cannot begin to understand why price is currently up pre-market on earnings release. Incidentally, franchisee negativity may be solely due to wage increase, and that is many small businesses for you - every dollar in wages feels like a dollar out of owner pockets. (of course, literally it is).

  • Reply to

    Sales Decreased

    by picker1129 Apr 20, 2015 9:17 AM
    algo41 algo41 Apr 21, 2015 3:25 PM Flag

    from ACU 10-k: "Net sales from the date of acquisition through December 31, 2014 attributable to First Aid Only were approximately $10.4 million. Net income from the date of acquisition (june 2) through December 31, 2014 attributable to First Aid Only was $500,000." (12/7)*10.4 = 17.8 mil annual sales estimate for First Aid Only, and 17.8/4 = 4.4 mil quarterly if no seasonality, which is more than increase in US sales of .25*16.1 = 4.0 mil.

    As integration proceeds impact of First Aid Only on profit should only increase.

  • Reply to

    Sales Decreased

    by picker1129 Apr 20, 2015 9:17 AM
    algo41 algo41 Apr 20, 2015 5:39 PM Flag

    Picker, By my notes, First Aid sales in 2013 were 17.4 million. Do you have additional numbers?

  • Reply to

    Sales Decreased

    by picker1129 Apr 20, 2015 9:17 AM
    algo41 algo41 Apr 20, 2015 5:34 PM Flag

    Sales in Canada were down 8% in local currency, hence much more in dollars. Sales in europe were up 14% in local currency, but down 5% in dollars. US sales were up 25%. I think you have a point: they should have reported last year's First Aid sales for the quarter.

  • Volume for this stock always surprises me, and also that there must be many people willing to react so quickly to an 11:00 AM earnings release. Was timing of release expected, and if so, how?

  • Reply to

    Happy Days for us longs

    by goodnicknamesaregone Apr 18, 2015 9:32 AM
    algo41 algo41 Apr 19, 2015 8:45 PM Flag

    For a stock followed by 15 analysts, it is remarkable by how much they have underestimated earnings for the last 4 quarters (cf. Yahoo). Also, I was listening to Squawk on the Street the morning earnings came out, perhaps not attentively enough, but while they mentioned AMD, a much smaller cap stock, CE was apparently not mentioned at all despite such a huge beat.

  • writer thinks TLF is very undervalued. Whether or not you agree, it is worth reading.

  • algo41 by algo41 Apr 17, 2015 1:24 PM Flag

    Disparity between eps increase and net income increase is large. If you look at an additional decimal point, diluted eps went up from 10.7 cents to 11.8 cents, or 10.3%. Basic shares went up 3.1% while diluted went up 7.5%. This discrepancy in part reflects change in stock price: if price goes up, diluted shares go up, and visa versa. On Apr 1, 2014 price was 16.83, and on April 1, 2015 it was 19.25 (when you look at monthly yahoo prices, it gives first day of month rather than last day of month or I would have looked at Mar 31). A positive is that volatility should be dampened, but of course large number of options is a negative, even when awards are reflected in net income.

  • algo41 by algo41 Apr 14, 2015 5:29 PM Flag

    "Accidental Superpower" has some outrageous interpretations, but argues that Canadian laws make it easy for provinces to secede, and that given demographics, Western provinces are going to be increasingly subsidizers of Quebec, and won't put up with it.

  • algo41 by algo41 Apr 14, 2015 5:23 PM Flag

    I know my vote won't really matter, but does anyone have an opinion on whether to vote for or against management? My only grievance is the lack of conference calls.

  • Reply to

    Bet they end up paying $15M?

    by barkingdog78 Apr 1, 2015 10:16 PM
    algo41 algo41 Apr 2, 2015 9:10 AM Flag

    as to "what similar cases", following is from a post on this board on Mar. 3

    "Delilah's, not owned by Rick's, is a strip club in Philadelphia. It is being sued for not paying its dancers wages, calling them "contractors". Dancers actually have to pay $85 for each shift for right to dance (and collect tips). Delilah's has been around a long time."

    Is rick's going to be sued in Texas where they have a number of clubs?

  • Reply to

    tender offer

    by algo41 Mar 27, 2015 9:39 AM
    algo41 algo41 Mar 31, 2015 9:19 PM Flag

    Are they unethical and willing to give poor guidance next qtr. to drive down the stock price? I think it is only a possibility. So do they raise the offer, or try to find something to buy? or even put the company in play, after all the major stockholders rather than the managers are in control. My guess: raise the top price to $43.50.

  • Reply to

    tender offer

    by algo41 Mar 27, 2015 9:39 AM
    algo41 algo41 Mar 27, 2015 1:05 PM Flag

    Thanks, Steve. It seems any of the smaller shareholders can probably sell at 42 today. I wonder if the offer is going to be under subscribed.

  • algo41 by algo41 Mar 27, 2015 9:39 AM Flag

    Not exactly overwhelming. Last time tendering did not work out well, but who knows this time. Does anyone know what the term "affiliates" means in the context of the offer?

  • I note that MCD was up significantly today because of renewed talk of splitting that company into a company that owns its properties and enjoys REIT status and the rest of the company. CBRL could do the same thing.

    A few yeas ago the comparable tax status got out of hand in Canada and they just eliminated it even for companies that already had tax free status (I owned Canadian Oil Sands at the time which lost its tax free status over a transition period).

  • Reply to

    HOKA POKA

    by raskolnikov88 Mar 11, 2015 4:25 PM
    algo41 algo41 Mar 19, 2015 3:42 PM Flag

    Very, You might look at ACU. Lots of options, but I decided it was still a worthwhile stock.

  • Reply to

    10-K is out

    by steve_382n Mar 17, 2015 4:56 PM
    algo41 algo41 Mar 18, 2015 6:39 PM Flag

    I am not happy with their reporting. Some companies reconcile GAAP and non-GAAP eps, and I think they should do the same. Also, they took out over 500k of "other costs" from adjusted EBITDA. That is too large a number not to provide more granularity. If they had conference calls, I presume they would have had to address that.

  • Reply to

    Stock drop continues

    by pezaguy Mar 12, 2015 10:54 AM
    algo41 algo41 Mar 18, 2015 5:56 PM Flag

    Paige, as far as I can see your information about "all the insider selling" is wrong or possibly highly exaggerated. There was a major outside shareholder who sold a significant number of shares some time ago. Would you care to provide some backup? I sold some shares right after the report, and since institutional shareholders are major holders, I am sure they sold a lot. That is different than insiders.