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Qiagen NV Message Board

alienvapor 67 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 24, 2015 10:11 AM Member since: Mar 18, 2006
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  • alienvapor alienvapor Jul 24, 2015 10:11 AM Flag

    or is he the bag

  • Reply to

    HUM discount to merger price

    by rlbeard6734 Jul 12, 2015 7:24 PM
    alienvapor alienvapor Jul 24, 2015 9:48 AM Flag

    Did you buy CI this morning? Spread looks good.

  • alienvapor alienvapor Jul 22, 2015 8:21 AM Flag

    Notice the 1.96 in the 6mg/kg group. ARIA was high also meaning raising dose past 6mg kg is limited.

    A similar relationship was seen on two measures of cognitive function. On the Mini Mental State Examination, a 30-point scale based on a survey, patients in the placebo group worsened by an average of 2.81 points at 52 weeks. Clinical decline on the MMSE in the treatment arms was 2.18 points in the 1 mg/kg, 0.70 in the 3 mg/kg, 1.96 in the 6 mg/kg arm (that’s not in line with the other results) and 0.56 in the 10 mg/kg arm. That was statistically significant for the 3 mg/kg and 10 mg/kg doses, but not for the others.

    On the Clinical Dementia Rating-Sum of the Boxes, a 30-point scale, patients in the placebo group worsened by an average of 1.87 points at 54 weeks compared to 1.72 in the 1 mg/kg group, 1.37 in the 3 mg/kg group, 1.11 in the 6 mg/kg group and 0.63 in the 10 mg/kg treatment arm.

  • alienvapor alienvapor Jul 22, 2015 4:39 AM Flag

    if either the 3 mg or 6 mg dose indicates conclusive efficacy it's major since it doesn't look like they'll be able to use the 10 mg dose.

    Or will they be able to use the 10 mg dose?

  • alienvapor alienvapor Jul 22, 2015 4:25 AM Flag

    I agree now after reassessing the situation. It is a true binary event.

    The 10 mg dose had side (serious) effects and because of the size ot the trial the 3 mg dose results can't be trusted to conclusively show efficacy.

    In between will no doubt be sell the news.

  • alienvapor alienvapor Jul 21, 2015 4:19 PM Flag

    Schmidt noted that Biogen's March Phase 1b results were "impressive" but the 6mg cohort "had not yet differentiated itself from placebo." He also suggested that he lacks the "conviction to recommend investors play this potential binary event."

    Sounds like even good data is priced in and that 6mg hasn't shown anything so far which certainly doesn't give a lean towards the data will be good. Just the opposite.

  • Reply to

    hum/aet merger

    by rlbeard6734 Jul 10, 2015 3:02 PM
    alienvapor alienvapor Jul 21, 2015 11:02 AM Flag

    Before you leave can you give the bull case for HZNP? I have been interested in the stock since 18 but didn't pull the trigger. Obvious my research was inadequate.

  • Reply to

    hum/aet merger

    by rlbeard6734 Jul 10, 2015 3:02 PM
    alienvapor alienvapor Jul 20, 2015 2:37 PM Flag

    OT You guys looking into BIIB at all?

  • Reply to

    hum/aet merger

    by rlbeard6734 Jul 10, 2015 3:02 PM
    alienvapor alienvapor Jul 19, 2015 8:06 PM Flag

    The majority have less benefits, higher premiums, sometimes ridiculously higher, huge deductibles, a smaller network sometimes losing their old doctors entirely. It's just a fact rbeard, not anecdotal evidence although it is nice to hear of someone who actually benefited from Ocare without getting huge subsidies. It's why they illegally keep shifting the date for the law affecting the largest population, past where it will have an effect on the 2016 elections. The premiums will keep going up and they will keep expanding the number of sponges.

    Pesotrader is right that prices are rising, but it's not a pressure because they illegally shifted the dates to 2016 that would have devastated the Dems.

  • Reply to

    hum/aet merger

    by rlbeard6734 Jul 10, 2015 3:02 PM
    alienvapor alienvapor Jul 18, 2015 3:27 AM Flag

    Yeah, it's going to cause a lot of pain and bankruptcies for the poor. Maybe I don' t understand how well the poor are shielded from making their deductibles, since the primary goal was to steal from the middle class and give some people a total free ride, but 4 to 5k and expanding deductibles will put a lot of households under for the ones not totally shielded or when an instance happens where they aren't shielded. Many won't go to the doctor because they can't meet their deductibles.

    Its a horrible law that hurts a hell of a lot of people, benefits the insurance companies and will collapse under its own weight. California is outraged that AET raised rates 20%. Oregon told insurers to raise rates because they knew that they would be on the hook for any amount the insurance companies lost. The rate increases will continue and the Dems may actually suffer a little, but they were smart by changing the law and the dates that would enact the law for most Americans. So in the long run, it will have little effect whether they merge because the law demands too many expensive treatments for favored constituents and will expand to include many more poor and those previously uncoverable.

  • Reply to

    hum/aet merger

    by rlbeard6734 Jul 10, 2015 3:02 PM
    alienvapor alienvapor Jul 17, 2015 12:04 PM Flag

    Part of the reason is I could see multiple and lengthy delays on the antitrust review considering that there are so many big players.

  • Reply to

    hum/aet merger

    by rlbeard6734 Jul 10, 2015 3:02 PM
    alienvapor alienvapor Jul 17, 2015 12:02 PM Flag

    I found your advice interesting on the mnk buyout of QCOR, noting that you have followed or experienced the spread on many of these buyout mergers.

    I want to buy some options on this buyout and was wondering what you feel the timeline will be for the significant dates, When do you think is the latest or earliest they will give a decision on the antitrust? I'm pretty sure they'll ask for more time to review the deal and Hum should go down sharply and shortly. Any general opinions on stock price with the date would be nice. Jan calls or not a good inflection point?

    My guess is that Obama wants universal health care so this will get expedited as it is a step in that direction, but it's hard to know the whims of a dictator.Papa Duck isn't always rational.

  • alienvapor by alienvapor Jul 15, 2015 11:16 AM Flag

    While his premise was entirely logical. Who would give up all that money? He needs to get a mea culpa out.

  • alienvapor by alienvapor Jul 2, 2015 2:30 AM Flag

    One of the shorts has mentioned the ALL data stat of only 8.5 months of overall survival. With people talking a cure, this appears to be a refutation of bringing people back from the dead.

    Someone want to give a short tutorial on what the first and dominant stats to look at in these trials? I thought a CR complete remission would mean cancer free, indicating for most intents and purposes a "cure" with the overall survival rate skyrocketing. I can't seem to get the handle on what to key on and it's keeping me from a thorough understanding that I need. Any nuances or trivialities that give insight would be appreciated.

    Thanks.

  • alienvapor alienvapor Jun 30, 2015 2:22 AM Flag

    looks like your bank account will be zero before that happens stock rigger

  • Having trouble accessing Xavier's presentation today. Anyone else having any luck?

  • Reply to

    Stunner - 45% anti-sickling hemoglobin at 6 months!

    by dhm3159 Jun 13, 2015 2:43 PM
    alienvapor alienvapor Jun 15, 2015 2:03 AM Flag

    It's either a headfake but the alternative reasons are myriad for it not being a headfake. This time of the year is traditionally biotech and stocks in general selloff. At some point there will be a pretty sharp correction in biotech and i haven't seen leadership by biotech as of late. A basket I follow haven't responded well.

  • alienvapor by alienvapor Jun 15, 2015 1:55 AM Flag

    When will we get an update? Main price driver. That might have been part of the disappointment.

  • Reply to

    Stunner - 45% anti-sickling hemoglobin at 6 months!

    by dhm3159 Jun 13, 2015 2:43 PM
    alienvapor alienvapor Jun 14, 2015 11:07 AM Flag

    I bought six, but I'm expecting them to expire worthless. More of a hedge so i could take profit on some shares. But I did get some AUG 250's. If they want to move this up they'll start the buyout talk.

    I think they are moving out of biotech..

    Really can't go against George of the jungle being that he's a friend to you and me. So I'll buy back in if it's sell on the news.

  • alienvapor alienvapor Jun 13, 2015 11:02 PM Flag

    I've changed my mind. My guess is that they won't be able to ignore the SCID results, at minimum for a pretty good sized pop in the morning.

    Look what they did to AGIO on great news. If they can make more money selling off that's the direction Blue is taking. Nice thing is they have sold BLUE down. Actions of mms are often contrary before a big event.

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