There is obviously a holder of both JMI and ARR that is just dumperooing before the fed meeting. JMI's month end duration (if you really count those #$%$ hedges as having true negative duration; duration that behaves in nature to the fixed rate portfolio.. imo equiv of a unicorn).
There is premium on the 12.50 strike calls. But only for November.. I would be careful holding thru year end, as people are likely to get skittish about distributions and potential cuts.
oh how obscure. I bought (added) OAKS today at 10.52.. Did he happen to pump that one too or something? Either way, at that price.. ancient Mongolian proverb "Like lonely man, it pumps itself"
Wow. I see an offer for 38379DMS0 (really long duration, 4.0% coupon with 28 weighted average life if prepays stay dormant). some #$%$ is trying to get over par for that semi-new issue.
I can't believe people need to read articles explaining information that is already available. Perhaps it made them think of the thought process that says.. even if they cut, they'll still be yielding above peers and at a discount to book.
the grey one will be speaking..
Also if you're confused about WMC being up. It is because of a seeking alpha article. I #$%$ thee not.. Well, the timing fits.
and here is the reason why 0 liquidity can be bad.. This didn't catch my eye until after the close as I put it in my boring portfolio.. I should've taken my own advice and had a random buy order in at 23.93.. which is a 9.4% yield and slightly higher yield to maturity. 24.13 was the VWAP.
should note that the VWAP of most mREITs today was much higher than closing price.. just as yesterday, the VWAP was much lower.. What a bunch of lunatics.
If you look at the most recent short interest data.. and track back to last year.. You'll see a melt up in short interest and a melt down.. As of late, the short interest on stocks like AGNC, MTGE, NLY, WMC... The mREITs with the highest short interest (ORC, JMI, AI) did not go down as much as the rest - despite a number of factors that would suggest all three should've followed suit.
Also of note are CYS, ARR.. They did not follow AGNC/NLY as much - this isn't residual momo from the upgrade from Compass. The only thing that they have in common is that they were the only two who had a sizable uptick in shares sold short.
Also.. overall.. rates going up will be fantastic. libor, treasury.. you name it.. If only to see all the levered momo muppets out there get #$%$ slaughtered as they try for the hardest part of the greater fool game.. Most mREITs (aside from ORC).. have borderline-frivolous 'swap protection'. I think AGNC/MTGE took some off in their tradition of doing things too late. The reality tho is that libor would have to be meaningfully higher for most swaps to be positive carry. One can be swapped up to the heavens and still get a margin call due to the fixed rate securities declining in price. This would come from other levered players, which are not hedged.. selling in their frenzied fashion.
It is nice to see a bit of steepening in the curve. Diff between the 30yr CMS and 5 year CMS.. 1.33 .. today is probably much better. Last year the average was 2.05, before that.. 1.68 (2012),. Got as low as .16bps in 2000.. But that was a 6.93 30yr cms rate and a 6.77 5yr
I digress. Nice to have some vola back.. though the vix was manipuslammed from low 14s to low 13s. I swear vola only goes up so it can go down to boost up stocks.
well, the market doesn't understand much of anything about the mREITs.. they are not exactly mainstream. TWO being what it is and how they are positioned... if things followed logic, it should've been up today.
also of note. I'm not sure this is near capitulation point. So just know it could get ugly. I wouldn't do long/short SDRL/NADL.. but I'm sure a few of you on here would think thats a neat correlation.
they can't disclose info that would give insight (raw data, not opinion based) into their upcoming earnings release. They can talk data about the previous quarter and opine on what they think about the market/rates currently, but they can't say "Our book value is this" or "our asset yield is this" or we took down leverage significantly. and so on..
There is a trade off there.. It would be kind of foolish to come out with a new pfd as opposed to offering oaks-a ATM.. Even the coupon on the supposed oaks-b were lower - depending on the sizing.. it could actually be more due to offering costs and costs over time of having two separate issues.
IVR hinted at a little snip.. PMT is talking right now and as always.. it's sort of painful to hear this guy flex his public speaking skills. He always sounds like he just got done crying. Anyone listen to these besides me?
Do you propose that the government take the war money and instead pay employers to hire? I think that would be called a tax cut and getting rid of our #$%$ up tax code.. and that is a taboo if you're of the chunty liberal variety.. minus the h.
but seriously.. oooh please help us government.. That #$%$ has gotta stop. You may end up blindsided by Atlas dusting you off his shoulder.