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Alcatel-Lucent Message Board

allen_cogsdale 16 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 15, 2014 2:05 PM Member since: Feb 26, 2010
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  • allen_cogsdale by allen_cogsdale Sep 15, 2014 2:05 PM Flag

    IBB and NBI both down over 2%
    AVEO is up and has broken through the downward trend line

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Just now looking at ALU MB

    by allen_cogsdale Aug 20, 2014 1:14 PM
    allen_cogsdale allen_cogsdale Aug 20, 2014 5:20 PM Flag

    Yep.A few comments.
    Your posting history is 3 weeks long.You have rambled about nothing.
    You are a MB troll.
    I am giving my opinion.I do not promote myself as an expert.
    When ALU went to $3.50 on 4/15 and back over $4.00,I said it would retest it's lows.....but not this low.The MB dismissed me.
    ALU is in better shape now than it was at it's higher prices a year past.
    It was over valued at the time with the same mkt cap as JNPR which has been profitable.
    I pointed that out then that it was over valued and due for correction.
    IMO,it is under valued now due to short selling.
    Keep in mind the plethora of announced contracts.
    The mkt has over reacted.
    The announcement of repurchasing their patent portfolio will reverse the slide......IMO.
    Last but not least,my core purchases of ALU have been primarily in 12/12 and early 2013.
    My average is $1.44 with a 124% return at this point.I have also locked in profits but only to invest in a different stock that I think will do well..............not due to lack of faith in ALU.
    On your posts,you say you do not own ALU stock.
    Don't you have anything better to do with your time than to troll?
    I am sticking with $6.00....or better... by Q4 E/R.
    My other prediction is that you are anstodt and have trolled this MB under a few dozen aliases.

  • allen_cogsdale by allen_cogsdale Aug 20, 2014 1:14 PM Flag

    ALU is making steady long term progress and I am still optimistic at ALU being $6.00 plus by Q4 E/R.
    Keep in mind that ALU increased in price and value 4.75 times in less than a year.
    At that point it was over valued.
    Now it is undervalued.
    FWIW....I have noticed the MB idiot named snap,snap,chop,chop(anstodt,meriamur...etc.) cluttering up the board
    Nothing to offer except unwarranted fear.
    Others might do well to place anstodt on ignore pronto.......chop,chop.
    There is less drivel that way and it is possible a MB poster could post something of value

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Has Got To Be The Most Hated Stock On Wall Street

    by gp5561 Aug 8, 2014 1:46 PM
    allen_cogsdale allen_cogsdale Aug 8, 2014 2:00 PM Flag

    I have a 131% return at these current prices from buying in late 2012 and early 2013.
    My average is $1.44...........I am quite content.
    Pretty good return for less than two years holding it..
    Prices go up.Prices go down.
    When the price goes down because of fundamental execution flaws,there is a problem.
    ALU is performing very well with debt reduction and staggering of maturities at lower rates on the B/S.
    Meanwhile the income statement is showing constant margin improvements.
    Add the innovation that is and will keep improving from Bell Labs....higher margins on the income statement
    In time the price will catch up with the "shift" plan.
    If you are here for a fast buck ,go elsewhere.
    If you are an investor,be patient.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • You were bullish on ALU.......now bearish.
    You are an amateur momentum trader.....not an investor.
    ALU will do quite well............IMO at least $6.00....maybe more by Q4 E/R announced on 2/15.
    The shift is effective....the mkt had a knee jerk reaction which will correct itself.
    You have already sold your 7K shares(wow....a huge investment).
    BTW...the purpose of investing is to get in at the bottom and exit at the top.
    I will keep my ALU portfolio for several years...it will be a long ride upwards
    Time for you to leave this MB.You are creating clutter but also quite amusing.
    Goodbye....check back in a few qtrs

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Tomorrow is green

    by allen_cogsdale Aug 5, 2014 7:55 PM
    allen_cogsdale allen_cogsdale Aug 5, 2014 11:18 PM Flag

    Wireless....what you say separates us from the bobbos on this board.
    I am a long term investor in ALU and believe it will do quite well.
    Fear (bailing out at stop losses) and greed(buying at the top with sellers remorse)....these separate investors from momentum players.
    Do your research and believe in the company's product.As i mentioned...my average is @ $1.38.....should be lower but I was keeping my core holdings.
    I had a sizable loss from Jan -May 2012.
    Keep the faith and be rewarded.
    I have never had doubts about ALU's viability since the GS loan.ALU is in better shape now than it was in on 9/13 at the same price yet fair weather traders are panicking.
    I am still thinking it will be well above $6.00 on Q4 E/R

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Tomorrow is green

    by allen_cogsdale Aug 5, 2014 7:55 PM
    allen_cogsdale allen_cogsdale Aug 5, 2014 8:19 PM Flag

    When ALU hit $3.50,I warned that it would retest the low when it was at $4.00
    Somebody asked if I was from Novia Scotia
    I did not see the price going here.
    It is at the bottom trend line......will it retest lower...not sure.
    My average is $1.38.I believe I will ride it out
    Do you believe in Alu?

  • allen_cogsdale by allen_cogsdale Aug 5, 2014 7:55 PM Flag

    This separates the momentum players from investors who believe in ALU
    $4.69 was over bought.
    This current price is oversold
    EOM

  • allen_cogsdale by allen_cogsdale Aug 5, 2014 10:05 AM Flag

    No negative news on ALU.....just the major indices
    Anybody would be a fool to sell at this price.
    It's a chance to reload.....not unwind your position.
    Believe in the product you have invested in

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Too many idiot MB posters that clutter up the board.
    Some are informative.Some opinion.Some research.Some craving attention.
    I do not understand why others still respond to andstodt,meredith,sflegends etc..all the same poster.
    Hit the "ignore" flag...other aliases pop up
    I still have my position from 12/12.....some buying and selling between.
    ALU is in the infancy of the macro third wave up.
    That is all I need to know.
    FWIW..........roughly $8.00 within a week after Q4 E/R reported on 2/15.
    That is @ six months from now.A double.
    Believe in the product you invest in,hold the core for a few years or more.
    You will do well.
    ALU will outperform.
    Of course .....JMHO

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Turnaround on Mon

    by allen_cogsdale Jul 19, 2014 12:09 PM
    allen_cogsdale allen_cogsdale Jul 19, 2014 3:01 PM Flag

    FWIW.....several days to possibly reach $1.50....retest the lows..($1.20).....in a few weeks,the upward trend starts again

  • allen_cogsdale by allen_cogsdale Jul 19, 2014 12:09 PM Flag

    Possibly up @ $1.50.(watch the MACD).....will retest the lows after that but will have a positive MACD convergence and the BB's will tighten up by then......ready for 2nd run but at least 10-14 days away

  • Reply to

    It all comes in waves

    by trademar Jul 13, 2014 10:48 PM
    allen_cogsdale allen_cogsdale Jul 14, 2014 12:35 AM Flag

    It is all about wave patterns.
    ALU has bottomed out....end of the macro 2nd wave down which started on 12/13.
    The macro 3rd wave up is starting.
    $8.00/share within a week after Q4 E/R to be announced on 2/15

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • allen_cogsdale allen_cogsdale Jul 11, 2014 4:27 PM Flag

    At $3.46,it is still a hammer and the close did not break through the BB's.
    It is possible for ALU to retest the low on Mon.....but it will close above the low bollinger band.
    Meanwhile...the BB's are tightening,there is a huge positive convergence and within seven business days ALU will break hard to the upside.
    Not JMHO....but a fact

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • They have no message or agenda.The fools on this board claim to be shorting but are watching from the sidelines doing their best to get attention through scare tactics.Kind of sad to be so clueless isn't it?
    The big boys are creating this and they are not posting on this MB.
    ALU broke through the bottom BB,but at the end of the day will close above in the high $3.40's...maybe $3.50.
    ALU should throw a hammer which is an important reversal signal.
    Regardless,the down trend is over at a bottom of $3.40.
    I had thought support to be $3.50 but ALU is showing a hugely positive MACD convergence from the $3.40 low.
    That is the end of the macro 2nd wave down which has ruled since 12/11/13.
    The macro third wave is coming up and ALU will reach $8.00 plus by Q4 E/R to be reported on 2/15.
    Remember that since the 12/11/13 down trend that ALU has easily beat Q4 and Q1 estimates(restructuring charges not showing the full impact of the shift plan) and the shift will continue to accelerate and debt restructuring will continue to place less pressure on cash flow.
    $3.40 is the low which is still not a bad return for those who bought in before/right after the GS loan.
    FWIW,I backed up the truck then,have bought and sold,with my core purchases still intact plus adding a little more and still have a return of 147% at the current price of $3.45.Not a bad return for 18 months.This return will look great on Q4 E/R
    ALU will continue to amaze to the upside over the next several years.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ALU has been in a down trend since 12/11/13.The trend line touches the 200 day MA @$3.94 which ALU must break through to be officially out of it's downward slump.
    In actuality,ALU bottomed at $3.48 on 4/15 (end of macro 2nd wave down).
    4/16 was the beginning of the macro 3rd wave,although the price retested the previous low on 6/20.
    The price tested the 200 day MA several times and broke through on 6/10 to retest the 4/15 low again on 6/20 which was a huge positive.
    Keep in mind that ALU handily beat expectations on Q4 and Q1 and will continue to do so for the next several years.
    The strength of the 3rd wave will catapult the price because of short sellers who will continue to get burned.
    Once more....$8.00 plus by Q4 E/R to be announced in 2/15 would not surprise me

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

ALU
3.03-0.07(-2.26%)Sep 30 4:01 PMEDT

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