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Alcatel-Lucent Message Board

allen_cogsdale 41 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 11, 2014 4:27 PM Member since: Feb 26, 2010
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  • allen_cogsdale allen_cogsdale Jul 11, 2014 4:27 PM Flag

    At $3.46,it is still a hammer and the close did not break through the BB's.
    It is possible for ALU to retest the low on Mon.....but it will close above the low bollinger band.
    Meanwhile...the BB's are tightening,there is a huge positive convergence and within seven business days ALU will break hard to the upside.
    Not JMHO....but a fact

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • They have no message or agenda.The fools on this board claim to be shorting but are watching from the sidelines doing their best to get attention through scare tactics.Kind of sad to be so clueless isn't it?
    The big boys are creating this and they are not posting on this MB.
    ALU broke through the bottom BB,but at the end of the day will close above in the high $3.40's...maybe $3.50.
    ALU should throw a hammer which is an important reversal signal.
    Regardless,the down trend is over at a bottom of $3.40.
    I had thought support to be $3.50 but ALU is showing a hugely positive MACD convergence from the $3.40 low.
    That is the end of the macro 2nd wave down which has ruled since 12/11/13.
    The macro third wave is coming up and ALU will reach $8.00 plus by Q4 E/R to be reported on 2/15.
    Remember that since the 12/11/13 down trend that ALU has easily beat Q4 and Q1 estimates(restructuring charges not showing the full impact of the shift plan) and the shift will continue to accelerate and debt restructuring will continue to place less pressure on cash flow.
    $3.40 is the low which is still not a bad return for those who bought in before/right after the GS loan.
    FWIW,I backed up the truck then,have bought and sold,with my core purchases still intact plus adding a little more and still have a return of 147% at the current price of $3.45.Not a bad return for 18 months.This return will look great on Q4 E/R
    ALU will continue to amaze to the upside over the next several years.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ALU has been in a down trend since 12/11/13.The trend line touches the 200 day MA @$3.94 which ALU must break through to be officially out of it's downward slump.
    In actuality,ALU bottomed at $3.48 on 4/15 (end of macro 2nd wave down).
    4/16 was the beginning of the macro 3rd wave,although the price retested the previous low on 6/20.
    The price tested the 200 day MA several times and broke through on 6/10 to retest the 4/15 low again on 6/20 which was a huge positive.
    Keep in mind that ALU handily beat expectations on Q4 and Q1 and will continue to do so for the next several years.
    The strength of the 3rd wave will catapult the price because of short sellers who will continue to get burned.
    Once more....$8.00 plus by Q4 E/R to be announced in 2/15 would not surprise me

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • allen_cogsdale by allen_cogsdale Jun 23, 2014 5:01 PM Flag

    at $3.67 on 6/18.
    A huge spike tomorrow would not surprise me

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    It's a done deal

    by allen_cogsdale Jun 20, 2014 5:23 PM
    allen_cogsdale allen_cogsdale Jun 21, 2014 2:58 PM Flag

    You may be right but I am counting the waves against the MACD.
    The 3rd wave of the 3rd wave down within the macro 2nd wave down was 1/24.
    The end of the macro 2nd wave was 4/15.
    Time will tell

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    It's a done deal

    by allen_cogsdale Jun 20, 2014 5:23 PM
    allen_cogsdale allen_cogsdale Jun 20, 2014 6:39 PM Flag

    anstodt....why did you say you closed your short position yesterday?
    Watch and learn

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • allen_cogsdale by allen_cogsdale Jun 20, 2014 5:23 PM Flag

    The macro 1st wave up started @12/13/12 @$1.13 and ended @12/10/13 at $4.69.
    The macro 2nd wave down started on 12/10/13 and ended on 4/15 @ $3.48.
    The macro 3rd wave started on 4/15.The 1st wave(of 3rd wave) up ended at $4.14 on 5/14 and the micro 2nd wave within ended on 6/20 at $3.48.
    IMO,next week will see a heckuva spike.
    Micro third wave within beginning of macro 1st wave of major 3rd wave up.
    You don't have to understand.
    Just watch

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • That is also called a 2nd wave down from 4/15 to 6/18 within the macro 3rd wave.
    The macro 2nd wave down was 12/10/13 to 4/15/14.
    Alu will never touch this low again unless the bottom drops out of the mkt

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Seems like easy money but we will see

    by allen_cogsdale Jun 18, 2014 3:20 PM
    allen_cogsdale allen_cogsdale Jun 18, 2014 3:48 PM Flag

    Add to that 30 July calls ..strike..$3.00....price 68 cents

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • 80 July calls.....strike at $2.50.......price....$1.15
    IMO,tomorrow will be a 10 pt day up easily

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    No big deal

    by allen_cogsdale Jun 17, 2014 5:50 PM
    allen_cogsdale allen_cogsdale Jun 18, 2014 1:58 PM Flag

    Today is the last down day for testing the lows.
    Tomorrow is a reversal.
    Ten plus points would not surprise me.
    $8.00 plus by Q4 E/R announced on 2/15

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • allen_cogsdale allen_cogsdale Jun 18, 2014 12:19 PM Flag

    Assuming ALU does not go below it's low of $3.50 on 4/15(I do not think it will) which was the end of the 2nd wave down(2nd wave started at 12/11/13 at $4.69)........ALU is retesting a 2nd wave of a macro 3rd wave........all up from there.

  • allen_cogsdale by allen_cogsdale Jun 17, 2014 5:50 PM Flag

    Many months ago I said ALU would retest it's 4/15 low of $3.50 and then realized I was wrong.
    Many on the MB criticized my thoughts as they should have.
    I thought if it was going to do it,it would have done it well before now and not after so much good news.
    Equity dilution at the expense of debt reduction.A huge positive especially on cash flow.
    ALU has broken through the trend lines,but has not broken down.
    A major positive is that the 50 day MA has crossed south of the 200 day MA.
    This is no death cross because everything is positive.
    This signifies the cross over into a macro third wave.
    One thing I have noticed in Elliot Wave is that for one wave to complete it's cycle into the next,there is a crossover such as on 1/25/13.Despite that ALU went into a swoon from 1/25/13 to 5/8/13,the 50 day MA never crossed south of the 200 day MA......until now......close to the end of the second wave down.
    Third wave coming up.It dwarfs the first wave completely and lasts many years longer.
    The PPS has tested or broken the 200 day MA @5-6 times since 4/15.
    ALU is wound tighter than a spring and will break through resistance @ $4.01 in a very short period.
    Optimists will want to believe me.The bashers will say it's in a death spiral.
    The next few years will be significant.
    $8.00 plus by Q4 E/R announced on 2/15.
    High teens/low twenties announced on 2/16.
    Buy when others are selling when there is no bad news....just a correction....W Buffett.
    This will be the beginning of the third wave up

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Thoughts on ALU

    by allen_cogsdale Jun 6, 2014 4:33 PM
    allen_cogsdale allen_cogsdale Jun 11, 2014 10:50 AM Flag

    This area ($3.87) should be support
    Resistance.....$4.04.
    Still think breakout to the upside could be @ 5 business days.
    ALU should be green tomorrow

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • allen_cogsdale by allen_cogsdale Jun 6, 2014 4:33 PM Flag

    Right now ALU is caught between trend lines that are creating a pennant shaped flag.
    The bottom line of support is @ $3.88.
    The top line of resistance is @ $4.04.
    It has been in a down trend since 12/11/13 at $4.69
    IMO,ALU will not break to the downside but to the upside.....hard.
    Beginning of the macro third wave up.
    Time period.....somewhere @ 7-9 business days or less.
    Obviously it will require news or the mkt will show that the trade off of equity dilution at the expense of debt reduction is very positive.(Big dogs barking and buying).......AND this frees up ALU's patent portfolio.
    The key is to set Bell Labs loose for R&D innovation while equity dilution improves cash flow.
    $8.00 to $10.00 by Q4 E/R announced in 2/15.
    Get it while you can.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    SHIFT PLAN “SELF FUNDED”

    by jacdurkin Jun 4, 2014 4:26 PM
    allen_cogsdale allen_cogsdale Jun 4, 2014 4:34 PM Flag

    Jac.....You are a fool.Equity ,despite dilution,is better than debt that has a payment schedule.
    For the time being,interest expense maturities are being drastically cut as substitution for payment to GS.
    In case you do not have an MBA..or GED.....that contributes to positive cash flow.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    It is possible that ALU could

    by allen_cogsdale Jun 3, 2014 11:04 AM
    allen_cogsdale allen_cogsdale Jun 3, 2014 4:22 PM Flag

    This is the fifth time AlU has touched or broken the 200 day MA(now at $3.82) since 4/15 at $3.50
    $6.00 within 6 months............$8.00 plus by Q4 E/R

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    It is possible that ALU could

    by allen_cogsdale Jun 3, 2014 11:04 AM
    allen_cogsdale allen_cogsdale Jun 3, 2014 4:18 PM Flag

    ALU should close green tomorrow.
    Price will hit @ $4.06....in a week or less.....retest @ $3.85.
    I am looking for a breakout to the upside(from the last six month downtrend) in @ 14 days or less

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    It is possible that ALU could

    by allen_cogsdale Jun 3, 2014 11:04 AM
    allen_cogsdale allen_cogsdale Jun 3, 2014 12:28 PM Flag

    The bond issuance was a knee jerk reaction creating fear from dilution which will be later seen as a positive for liquidity and reducing debt payments.
    Last time Combes issued stock to increase liquidity,the mkt initially responded negatively then positively.The mkt is foolish to second guess Combes motives.He is Superman with vision.
    About two weeks and ALU will break out of it's downtrend since 12/13

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • allen_cogsdale by allen_cogsdale Jun 3, 2014 11:04 AM Flag

    go to @ $3.82.The price will then reverse to @ $4.06.
    ALU wil follow this pattern LOWER highs and HIGHER lows.....remaining in the trend lines for @ 2 more weeks....then break out to the upside in @two weeks for the first time since 12/10 @$4.69.
    Once ALU breaks out,the 2nd macro wave down is through.
    ALU will get traction and start moving much faster than the period from 7/14----12/14.
    IMO,ALU can reach @ $6.00/share in 6 months or less and $8.00 by Q4 E/R announced in 2015

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

ALU
3.46-0.07(-1.98%)Jul 11 4:02 PMEDT

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