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Alcatel-Lucent Message Board

allen_cogsdale 29 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 20, 2015 12:46 PM Member since: Feb 26, 2010
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  • Reply to

    new 52 week low

    by ruswise Jan 20, 2015 11:02 AM
    allen_cogsdale allen_cogsdale Jan 20, 2015 12:46 PM Flag

    These guys are playing with fire.
    My guess is the CFO and COO were hired right before or during the time Whitaker had started negotiations with a partner.Maybe positive news is quite a bit away.Who knows?
    I have called a false bottom a few times but this is surely it.
    This is a great buying opportunity.
    One thing seems to be certain.....Kovner has not been buying and this could bode well for news on the horizon.Possibly,the low stock options given to the three new hires will pay off soon.
    Great for buyers...I would not want to be in a short position now.
    At this point,too much risk.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • allen_cogsdale by allen_cogsdale Jan 20, 2015 3:01 AM Flag

    The new CEO has the experience and connections to broker a partnership.A Ganetespib pipeline could be three to six months from fruition.
    2)The new CFO and COO have the experience to master the complexities of arranging a partnership on a contract.
    3)Kovner's expensive investment and pet project is being shaken like a rag doll.
    4)The short sellers are feeding at the trough at a low price after SNTA raised funds from institutions @$4.00/share.
    5)A partnership is the only item that SNTA can control without FDA approval to move the price up
    6)Short sellers will continue to depress the price at their leisure unless positive news is announced
    7)A partnership would squeeze the shorts which are surely not making Kovner happy.
    8)The price is as close to it's 52 week low as ever which means short selling is high.
    The perfect time for a squeeze.
    Obviously a partnership can not be announced until details are finished.I am sure that there are interested investors and as lars and ruswise pointed out,mgmt has expressed an interest in doing this before FDA approval.
    BOTTOM LINE....A partnership is the only thing SNTA can use to control the price without/before FDA approval.
    This would be Kovner's revenge on shorts for making his investment so costly and could explain the sweet heart deals given to the CEO,CFO, and COO......An urgency to keep the price at fair value.
    Otherwise the pigs will feed at the trough at their leisure.
    Tomorrow, Q4 E/R, maybe later than that......it is the one way SNTA can control the price without FDA approval

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    synta

    by dhamel28 Jan 16, 2015 3:19 PM
    allen_cogsdale allen_cogsdale Jan 16, 2015 5:28 PM Flag

    I do not place any credence on a MB poster(especially with a new ID) who states what would be insider knowledge as being a done deal.
    There is no such thing as the law of averages.
    That is just a statistical occurrence.
    IMO,the shorting institutions have large gonads to short the price down to this level for as long as they have.
    SNTA has been on FDA fast track approval for @ six months with other pots brewing.
    I have no idea how long this type approval takes.Does any body want to venture a guess?
    With that being said and asked,positive news could come over the weekend,not until Q4 E/R or even longer than that.
    I am sure mgmt has noticed the price and is busy putting matters in place
    We are all guessing when.
    I do agree that some type of very positive news is brewing.
    IMO SNTA bottomed on 12/16,the price has more than triple bottomed since and the institutions are gambling on being able to unwind their short positions before being squeezed.
    Will the law of averages catch up with them?
    Shorts are working on borrowed time and this is a helluva price to be buying at.
    IMO,stochastics are beat down and SNTA will make another modest uptrend to @ $3.25.
    Remember SNTA raised additional funds @ $4.00.
    Those institutions did not balk at that price

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • allen_cogsdale by allen_cogsdale Jan 15, 2015 6:26 PM Flag

    Not bad though it may look it.
    Obviously the institutions have until early March to unwind their positions,barring news.
    That withstanding,they have time on their side and are,for the time being,the 600 LB gorilla.
    This is institutional short selling for accumulation,not selling due to apathy.
    The potential is there.
    My guess is that tomorrow will be green and the upward trend will remain intact from 1/5/15.
    This may look like deja vu for SNTA but everything signals an upward trend from the MACD to stochastics.
    A little premature but support is here with a low of $2.57 today and resistance appears to be @ $3.25-$3.30 before the end of next week.
    Obviously......JMHO out on the end of a limb

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    balance sheet and losses

    by ruswise Jan 10, 2015 8:52 AM
    allen_cogsdale allen_cogsdale Jan 10, 2015 2:11 PM Flag

    I could not agree more with snt951.
    IMO,SNTA funded as much as they thought they needed @ $4/share and then some.
    Whether there is breakthrough news on ganetespib in the next 2 qtrs (I think there will be)might be irrelevant if partnerships are developed on potential.IMO there will be news to make cash burn an irrelevant event.
    All that is needed is a little positive news.That is certain to happen in the next few quarters

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Signs point towards material event soon

    by lars1551 Jan 8, 2015 5:32 PM
    allen_cogsdale allen_cogsdale Jan 8, 2015 6:35 PM Flag

    There may be a possible reason why Kovner purchased shares on 9/31 but not on 12/31.
    The price was @ the same.
    On the same thought,only news will break this funk but the price will continue to move up.
    SNTA has reached a definite bottom but only because institutions are changing their focus.
    My guess is @ $3.75-$4.00 by Q4 E/R only because the shorting will have eased up.
    The potential and experienced mgmt are in place.
    We can only watch

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • allen_cogsdale allen_cogsdale Jan 7, 2015 6:54 PM Flag

    Triple bottom from mid Oct. with @ 7 retests of the low in the last month
    Positive MACD convergence.
    Institutions have made lots of money on the shorting and buying back at these low levels.
    They are easing out at these levels.
    Only the greedy and inexperienced are still shorting and they will be burned if they hold their positions
    IMO....somewhere @ $2.64,it will retest until stochastics hit @ 20.....then possible resistance @ $3.25.
    It ain't gonna get much cheaper to buy than this folks

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • allen_cogsdale allen_cogsdale Dec 27, 2014 10:36 AM Flag

    I don't think so Lars.
    Whitaker stated at the beginning her goal was to transform SNTA into a world class global oncology company.That means partnerships.........not buyout.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    A little green today...

    by trade4euros Dec 17, 2014 2:28 PM
    allen_cogsdale allen_cogsdale Dec 18, 2014 10:24 AM Flag

    2-3 more days of green
    Resistance @ $3.00.........retest the previous low of $2.52.
    That will be the bottom,then the uptrend starts

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    We are stuck for the moment.

    by eyegeewhiz Dec 17, 2014 11:17 AM
    allen_cogsdale allen_cogsdale Dec 17, 2014 2:00 PM Flag

    richard...you are correct on the 30 day period.
    geewhiz.......if the next major catalyst is in the 2nd half of 2015 why did anybody bother buying earlier?Answer.....you never know when they are going to come out with a surprise announcement.Could be this week......might be a few months.....maybe later than that.Who knows?IMO....the price will be much higher before news comes out.SNTA is beat down on no bad news with great potential ahead.
    If I understand this correctly.....SNTA is beat down because of short selling by institutions.Why should they not start covering for window dressing profits this year.
    I am sure they have losses in other investments to offset profits from SNTA.
    Last but not least.....stochastics are beat down and you would be selling at the bottom.I really do not feel there is more downside but nobody has a crystal ball.
    One last thought...if you sell now and the price takes a jump,you will be buying in at a higher price and you have to pay taxes eventually on a sale so you are just raising your average price and eventually ...if you sell any portion within a year,you will be paying ordinary income rather than capital gains taxes.
    If you decide to sell......it may be prudent to sell a portion rather than all.
    I have a pretty significant loss in SNTA at this point but I believe I will wait it out.
    Everybody has different criteria for selling so good luck on your decisions.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Double Bottom Theory?

    by ccaldridge Dec 16, 2014 8:07 AM
    allen_cogsdale allen_cogsdale Dec 16, 2014 10:57 AM Flag

    I have already been proven wrong about SNTA's low being $2.62 on 11/13
    I am agreeing with you after looking at the 1st few hours of trading today.
    This is the bottom.It is not the time to sell.
    Everybody ,of course,will do what they need to do,but I am in it for the long term,have a decent loss,but am looking out at 6 months plus from here

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    A/H says down 20 cents

    by allen_cogsdale Dec 12, 2014 6:55 PM
    allen_cogsdale allen_cogsdale Dec 13, 2014 12:52 PM Flag

    snt951.....what you need to keep in mind ...there will not only be tax loss selling but profit taking by the institutions for window dressing.
    The profit taking would be short covering although not 100% short covering.
    All that matters is the institutions easing up a bit.
    In addition,the FDA meeting could have a positive spin on it

    Sentiment: Buy

  • allen_cogsdale by allen_cogsdale Dec 12, 2014 6:55 PM Flag

    Pure bullshit.
    It is possible that SNTA may retest.....possibly even $2.75.
    That should be the bottom.
    Still in an uptrend.
    I am beginning to think the 12/11 FDA meeting may give more of a boost than previously thought.
    I guess we will see next week.
    Hope all have a good weekend

  • Reply to

    What is wrong with this stock??

    by raydonovan1 Dec 11, 2014 9:18 PM
    allen_cogsdale allen_cogsdale Dec 11, 2014 11:16 PM Flag

    No way of being certain but I think tomorrow will be green

  • Reply to

    Took the loss

    by leftyspade Dec 11, 2014 3:40 PM
    allen_cogsdale allen_cogsdale Dec 11, 2014 5:56 PM Flag

    One last thought.........IMO there will be positive,though not earth shaking news from the 12/11 meeting with the FDA.
    As I understand it,SNTA was invited by the the FDA for this presentation.
    The pieces will come together in the next few months or sooner.
    The BOD are not novices.They are wisely making decisions and Kovner is in the background because he believes their judgment is sound and he has the staying power and resources to hang with the cash burn......which will not be a problem.He is an investor.This seems to be an excellent team they are placing together.
    IMO....Whitaker was instrumental in finding them
    Short sellers are slowly exiting which is a positive.
    This is a $4.00 stock with no news.
    Of course JMHO.

  • Reply to

    Took the loss

    by leftyspade Dec 11, 2014 3:40 PM
    allen_cogsdale allen_cogsdale Dec 11, 2014 4:20 PM Flag

    Let me see if I got this straight.
    You lost money so you blame mgmt for lack of execution.
    If you made money,you were gonna flip(and congratulate yourself on your stock picking prowess) and go elsewhere....barring a major news event.
    I started buying in August,my average is @ $3.61,I have a pretty decent loss,but I chose to buy SNTA when I did.SNTA sold shares to institutions @ $4.00/share recently @ Aug-Sept
    I do not blame mgmt for my losses.I blame myself for bad timing.
    It is rare to buy at the bottom and sell at the top.
    I do believe I have picked a "Grand Slam" stock with SNTA,Ganetespib and the HSP90 platform.
    SNTA has a very experienced mgmt team and seasoned BOD
    I am a newbie to bio pharm investing....have never invested in a company that has no recorded revenues.
    Serve no wine until it is time.....obviously there is no news at this point and the short sellers are in control.
    That will not always be the case and I can assure you that SNTA will not go below the low of $2.62 set on 10/13.
    Catch you on the flip side.
    Sell and be gone....or start bashing under a different MB ID

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    This is the part I love

    by chrisblade411 Dec 9, 2014 1:43 PM
    allen_cogsdale allen_cogsdale Dec 9, 2014 2:59 PM Flag

    Hate to tell you this but the shorts are completely in control unless there is surprise news.
    Stochastics were beat down and it was time to buy.
    They are covering and also buying .....IMO.
    Possibly it is time for news next week from the oncologic drugs advisory committee..If so I would be surprised and excited..Shorts may have uncertainty over potential news which,if positive,could create a squeeze.
    No need to #$%$ in our pants unless it happens.
    With that being said,SNTA bottomed@ 2 months ago,is easily worth $4.00 just from potential and it is past due time to see upward movement.
    Bottom line.....shorts control unless caught off guard with surprise news but SNTA,at this point,is in a slow uptrend

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • allen_cogsdale by allen_cogsdale Dec 2, 2014 3:16 AM Flag

    It may make slow progress going up barring news.
    All technicals point to am unmistakable uptrend.
    I would be surprised to see the price go much lower than it did on 12/1 and do believe it will be closer to $4.00 by the end of the year.
    There are too many positives in favor of Ganetespib to not think that news is just around the corner.
    Patience.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Where are all the pumpers?

    by guttaman1 Nov 26, 2014 10:25 AM
    allen_cogsdale allen_cogsdale Nov 27, 2014 2:20 PM Flag

    And we will never be able to split the atom or create a bomb that can destroy the Earth several times over.Do a little DD on ganetespib and it's platform.
    Ganetespib attacks the protein in a cell that cancer thrives on to survive
    Funds are good through Q4 2015 E/R......more if necessary.
    IMO...not necessary.
    SNTA will be a $20 plus stock by this time next year.
    Hell......I bet you will be long SNTA too.
    FWIW.....I would not wish on anybody having to spend eternity with Obumma

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    ALGORITHMIC TRADING HAS KICKED IN SHORTS

    by stewart_rose1975 Nov 18, 2014 10:02 AM
    allen_cogsdale allen_cogsdale Nov 18, 2014 10:29 AM Flag

    I am not certain that it was not the mkt makers taking out stop losses
    $3.50 or better looks like the next resistance.
    IMO this is short selling easing up which is not the same as a vindication of Ganetespib.
    That will come later.
    Right now,institutions are easing out at their leisure and locking in long.
    Others that are not seeing the trend change are getting burned
    Barring news....comfortably at $4.00 by mid-late December.
    Obviously there is huge resistance at that level.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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