maybe they get back 500 million from ABX and move on ......
very dissapointed about the vale deal.... they paid 1.9 billion and didnt get any production for it... very very dissapointed....
The Sudbury and solobo produced 9100 ounces of gold and delivered lol 831 ounces big freakin miss !! So much for the " great assets" these two mines are lol 1.9 billion for these low performers is ridiculous... In total these numbers were well below my expectations !! Love the model and have been a cheerleader to say the least but am very disappointed indeed !! Total of 12+ thousand ounces produced but not delivered that's 19 + million in revenue missed not to mention the underperformance of the hudbay deal !! I can go on and on just very disappointed
8.9 million silver equivalent ounces .41 earnings .09 dividend... came to this number using partner filings and average estimates of last years production....
earnings wont be a big upside surprise but at these levels most is pretty much factored in. I think continuing to add at these levels will be highly profitable by years end.... Once again looking for .40 earnings and an .08 cent dividend... on 8 million ounces...
yes earning will disapoint.... However just like how you know this so do the professionals... stock is already reflecting negative opinions... i think they come in at .40 cents on 8 million ounces and an .08 cent dividend... keep in mind they are forcasting for a 14% production increase this year so that softens the blow somewhat of lower silver.... just my opinion.... i will be buying on any earnings softness
Easy with the POS... have you not seen what the dollar yen did at 2:00 this afternoon ? i am assuming you didnt otherwise you wouldnt have posted what you did.... Yes earnings will be light and even dissapoint but this is a great company and at a great price... i say they come in around .40 cents on 8 million ounces sold..... .08 cent dividend.... i will be buying on any decline....
for the quarter... one variable i cant account for is the VALE production and profit margin... so i am going with 8 million ounces at a 30avg with a 61% margin... anything less will see sub 40 cents earnings... while i am very bullish on the company i think the earnings may not suprise on the upside.... still long and will be buying more as i have in the past... gonna ride this train for a long while...
Keep in mind that almost all the silver that SLW gets is on a byproduct basis, meaning that unless mines stop producing the primary metal usually gold silver as a byproduct would still be contractually sold to SLW. I suggest looking at each stream and realizing that the price of gold is more of a problem to production than silver...
This is just my opinion but while we are witnessing what i think is global deflation central banks have no choice but to continue in even bigger ways to try and reflate by creating inflation, in this environment metals usually do well (albeit in the past year and a half they have trended lower) as far as SLW is concerned i think that they have been lumped up with the traditional miner as they have a unique buisness model yet have a fraction of the risks that a traditional miner have. The fixed investment and long life spans of each stream is where the strength of SLW stands. After its initial upfront payment SLW has the right to buy cheap production for in most cases in excess of 25 years. Its valuation is most definitely associated with the price of silver and rightfully so, for every dollar in price silver adds SLW adds 33.5 million in revenue (per 33.5 mil ounce quidance for this year) and conversely should the price of silver decline by a dollar it has the negative effect of 33.5 million dollars in revenue so naturally SLW is tied to the price of silver. It is my opinion however that at the current price its relatively undervalued, i come to this conclusion because of the strong margins SLW achieves through its low purchase price. As far as modeling is concerned i have also been trying to model revenue and earnings and the way i do it is looking at each stream and following those companies as close as possible since SLW reports last after it streams have reported it gives you some insight into the amount due SLW, the problems i run into is the difficulty in calculating "produced but not yet delivered" production this is the wildcard for me each and every quater... Hope you have better luck modeling than i do, in closing i think this company has a great model insuring profit present and future, limited risk exposure while enjoying the rewards of higher silver prices. Good luck !!!
my point is that buying silver today for example is either because you believe price is going higher or to preserve your wealth. as SLW generally tracks silver you can buy a silver tracker with a dividend for less than what one ounce of silver will cost you and without a premium.... If silver moves up 10% your physical will be roughly break even whereas SLW will most certianly be up and you get the dividend. All i am saying is that for less than the price of an ounce you can get your hands on a share of a dividend paying company which will benefit from a higher silver price is all... If it doesnt make sense to you thats fine but at these prices youre getting SLW at a discount versus silver itself...
Point #1 SLW is trading for less than the cost of one ounce of silver, it pays a dividend and is highly profitable not to mention if you believe in higher silver prices in the future SLW should deliver a leveraged return to silver.
Poing #2 Buying physical right now is going to cost you a very high premium.... lets say physical is trading at a 10% premium (small in comparison to where premiums really are but for arguments sake lets say 10%) by buying SLW instead you have already cushioned yourself by 10% as that would be the waisted premium paid for physical... Hence in closing if one is looking to buy say 100 ounces of physical its going to run at least $2650 where it will only be worth after purchase roughly 2400 so why not just buy SLW with the 2650 which gets you roughly 110 shares for the same price and a 10% cushion over physical....
Roy i hope you are not pulling my leg, please remember to follow up with your own homework as well my posts are based on widely available info and should be confirmed by anyone reading it, i suggest you go to the SLW site and read the terms of the Pascua lama stream to confirm...
I differ on your view that it will not have a great impact on SLW.... Naturally Pascua lama is a huge deposit and SLW 25% stake would definitely impact its growth in the years to come ... However i still believe that Barrick moves forward with the project as they have pumped a great deal of money into it already. The way i see it, SLW has a long term option on production with very little financial downside, should the project go thruough great for SLW if not we get most of the cash back to allocate elsewhere....
I think you need to read the terms of Pascua lama a bit better and stop reading misleading articles from silver doctors..... The deal terms are as follows should barrick not fulfill terms of completion by a certain date barrick has to give SLW 650 million minus credits already recieved from the other barrick mines... I dont know where they get barrick owes SLW 200 million ounces from ... Silver doctors is way off base here .. if you doubt what i write look for yourself on the SLW site under streams !! you will see it in plain english.... I am and have been very bullish on SLW just dont like the misleading info floating around.....
LOL your broker is only bout two weeks and 20percent late on that call.... continue to hold as the worst case scenario SLW gets back the 650 mil minus some credits.... best case Pascua lama comes online and we get a large amount of cheap silver... Without pascua lama SLW will do 33.5 million ounces this year alone that equates to roughly half a billion in profit... i would suggest holding and adding more down at these levels...
and expects to sell an additional 1 million ounces by august... PPP primero mining news release says they have already achieved the 3.5 million ounces quota for SLW and will be selling a million ounces by august which means slw already has gotten the 3.5 million ounces and will recieve an additional 1 million ounces by mid august this is great news as i suspect SLW will sell more than the 33.5 million ounce quidance this year... take a look at primero filing symbol PPP.....
think it turns around late in the day options and the gdx are weighing as well... a share is worth less than an ounce of silver with a dividend and earnings...
stock is cheap.... i have been taking a beating like everyone else but have faith in a strong buisness model and cheap source of supply considering they buy silver for less than $6 an ounce and gold between 400- 500 an ounce... even if Pascua lama never comes online this company will still earn 500 million this year...
only 1 has a stated production cost of 1156.00 per ounce and that is for 110,000 ounces... Barrick has 19 other mines producing roughly 7,000,000 ounces ranging in cost from as low as 282 an ounce to 978 an ounce even at current prices they are very profitable 2 billion plus in the bank and a current PE below 7 the sotck is cheap on every metric... hold your nose and buy for the long run..... you will be highly rewarded