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BP p.l.c. Message Board

alpagoode 8 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 12, 2015 2:20 PM Member since: May 5, 2007
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  • Reply to

    Serious Question

    by realitos1 Feb 12, 2015 2:03 PM
    alpagoode alpagoode Feb 12, 2015 2:20 PM Flag

    Don't worry about being politically correct or ruffling feathers. You have answered most of your own questions. This company's stock has happened upon an unsustainable trajectory. I asked many questions when the stock was $290, but failed to act. Now, nearly $100 later, and after yesterday's fiasco of a conference call, I know exactly what to do. And I suspect from the tenor and line of your questioning that you do too.

    Longs have had it good with this company, and other ridiculously valued companies like Amazon and Netflix as well. Great companies with charismatic leaders, but insanely overpriced. It may take the street a while to recognize that the party is over. Unfortunately, the retail investor is always the dumb drunk in the corner who overstays his welcome. In this case, the music will have to be turned off, and so will the lights. One thing I can guarantee you is this will not end well. Tesla will trade below $100......and it may be sooner than you can imagine. Good luck in whatever you decide to do.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    jan 30 $46 puts

    by pebble16x Jan 27, 2015 10:43 AM
    alpagoode alpagoode Jan 27, 2015 11:23 AM Flag

    I am in the same boat. I sold the Jan 30 $47 at $1.10. I am down and concerned. I sold these based on a nice premium, and the fervent belief that tax news combined with favorable earnings (from YHOO and BABA) would easily keep me above my cost basis of $45.90.

    Of course whenever you play an earnings event, anything can happen. An announcement may come after the ER, disappointing investors, and causing a temporary correction below our cost basis. We may get a less than stellar earnings report as well. Finally, Apple (and a host of other important companies) report today and over the remainder of the week, and this could drag down the entire Nasdaq.

    My main concern is the number of companies forecasting a terrible 2015 due to what is happening in the currency markets. Most of the important companies have significant financial interests overseas, and with Europe and Asia struggling, and trying to prop up failing economies, the entire market is readjusting its sights, and the lack of certainty in the markets is what is causing this terrible volatility. In this environment it is tough to sell calls or puts for income.

    Sorry for being so long winded. Here is what I think happens tonight and this week.

    Yahoo has a mixed report, but offsets this with good guidance and a favorable investor-friendly tax plan announcement that galvanizes the stock. I think we can see a minimum 5% to 7% bump in the stock that helps us both collect our premium. Finally, Alibaba beats and guides higher later this week, which would also provide a nice tailwind for Yahoo.

    Good luck:)

    Sentiment: Buy

  • alpagoode alpagoode Jan 7, 2015 3:54 PM Flag

    what can I say? I try to be a wordsmith. And what's wrong with a short (or long) term trading horizon. I am in this to make money. I will hold for a positive result, but I am not Warren Buffett. I don't have that kind of patience. And, no I am not trying to be sanctimonious. My goal is to make money. I have never scoffed at a quick buck if that is in the cards.

  • alpagoode alpagoode Jan 7, 2015 3:44 PM Flag

    gotcha. thanks for the response, and the low volume is actually positive. This suggests there is not wholesale panic, or bad news on the horizon.I do believe most longs are holding at least through ER to see what develops. I am losing my #$%$ right now, but will hold on. I do ultimately believe in a positive outcome at the end of all of this.

  • alpagoode alpagoode Jan 7, 2015 3:30 PM Flag

    Last five trading days from Dec. 31 to now....4.5% pullback according to Yahoo Finance.

    Yes, I do realize the stock should pull back, and these can be healthy during a rally. However, many suggested the stock was still undervalued. Many respected analysts raised price targets to between $55 and $62. Some on this board suggest we could even see $80 at some point if the company executes perfectly.

    The price action looks a little suspect of late, and seems to be one where tutes are looking to dump their stock on the so-called "dumb" money. And yes, I am one of that luckless "dumb" group. I just don't want to get dumped on this time.

    Isn't it odd to you that on a massive market day this stock cannot gain any traction, and every single rally is sold off?

  • The price is getting slammed on a daily basis. What is the plan. I hear a lot about sum of the parts valuations and possible M&A activity, but what is really going on? The price has been unrelenting in its precipitous decline.

  • This sure doesn't resemble the price action of something positive on the horizon. It stinks of a massive selloff in the works. I sure hope it doesn't work out that way, but if MM doesn't deliver, this stock sinks below $40 in a heartbeat.

  • Didn't see a lot of panic here today. Volume was below average (16 million shares vs. a three month average of 23 million). Some may have panicked and sold shares or options, but most are staying the course. Just one man's opinion, but I think many people will be sorry if they sold shares or didn't take the opportunity to add here. Short term swing and day traders may get hurt if they are trying to time this, but if you are long and undeterred, you will see gains (and probably sooner rather than later - as in 3 to 6 months).

    This is not to suggest that we may not see more short term weakness. We could test the $45-$48 range if we see a sustained broad market selloff. Additionally, the stock has a symbiotic relationship with Alibaba, and could fall further as a result of weakness in that company's stock. Today, most stocks dropped quite a bit due to global weakness, oil prices, fund managers rebalancing portfolios, short sellers taking advantage of market weakness, and nervous retailers abandoning their plan (not being critical of them. I've done it many times myself).

    Despite this, the well-documented, long thesis for Yahoo is still in place. Trade around a long position if you must by selling short term calls, but don't let short term volatility keep you from the reward you are so close to.

    Good luck to you. This is just my opinion, and I hope you make money.
    Happy holidays.

    Sentiment: Hold

BP
41.74+0.44(+1.07%)Mar 3 4:05 PMEST

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