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Infinera Corporation Message Board

alpha1beta2gamma3 2 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 23, 2015 4:14 AM Member since: Jul 18, 2012
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  • Reply to

    Hitting on all cylinders

    by alpha1beta2gamma3 Oct 22, 2014 5:22 PM
    alpha1beta2gamma3 alpha1beta2gamma3 Apr 23, 2015 4:14 AM Flag

    BAM. The 800+ million year is here. Analyst estimates have been updated. They are now calling for 811 million for 2015 (ex-acquisition). This is stunning. Just a few months ago, the revenue estimate for 2015 was 716. It has risen steadily from 716 - 753 - 785 - 811.

    Moreover, this is profitable growth. Margins are improving.

    My model, from several months ago, which has matched or come close to the company's numbers and did call for 800 several months ago is now on the low side, at 800. Unbelievably good execution by INFN, a nice melding of market and product.

    I have 800 for 2015, 997 for 2016, 1205 for 2017, and 1424 for 2018. This is a simple projection based primarily on current business trends and many things can change.

    The analysts are calling for 950 in 2016.

    I have an underlying revenue growth rate of 24%.

    Though the LH market may mature and the company may not get these growth rates in the outer years, I still think when potential new business is included, this target is certainly not pie-in-the-sky.

    INFN is becoming Applesque. It is growing several standard deviations faster than the overall market and taking a nice chunk of the market's profits. Others are picking at the scraps.

    Likewise, I suspect 24% is the minimal annual price appreciation for the next 3-4 years, assuming today's price is fair. (EPS should grow even faster because of scaling, though annual share dilution of 5% takes a toll. Thus the average revenue growth of 24% becomes a floor.)

    I'd be happy with 24% as a low-end annual appreciation target. At that rate, your money doubles every 3 years.

    I have a feeling, if things fall into place in the metro market, INFN will do much much better.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Hitting on all cylinders

    by alpha1beta2gamma3 Oct 22, 2014 5:22 PM
    alpha1beta2gamma3 alpha1beta2gamma3 Apr 22, 2015 2:19 AM Flag

    Another fabulous quarter. The relatively new CFO is good.

    I had 191 for Q1 from my purely statistical model, a 192 for Q2, and a combined 383 for Q1 and Q2.

    The company generated 187 in Q1 and expects to generate 200 in Q2 for a combined 387.

    So, in effect, right in line with the statistics. (My model is just a projection. It does not include much of their new stuff. So their early new stuff is adding a slight positive outcome bias.)

    My model now predicts 800 for the full year, slightly lower than the previous 806 that it had in January, again without the acquisition, and based only a projection of current trends.

    Estimates for 2015 have ratcheted up, steadily and comfortably from 716 to 753 to 785, as of yesterday. This is certainly going up another 10-20 million at least, ex-acquisition. I want to see an 800+. It will come.

    With revenue estimates steadily rising (and earnings estimates rising even faster), small wonder the stock keeps rising. Its upward trajectory will continue.

    This company is cooking.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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