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Infinera Corporation Message Board

alpha1beta2gamma3 1 post  |  Last Activity: Jan 23, 2015 1:24 AM Member since: Jul 18, 2012
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  • Reply to

    Hitting on all cylinders

    by alpha1beta2gamma3 Oct 22, 2014 5:22 PM
    alpha1beta2gamma3 alpha1beta2gamma3 Jan 23, 2015 1:24 AM Flag

    Insanely good numbers.

    In my Oct 2014 post, it was pointed out that:

    "Statistically, their 6-period moving average since 2011 can be fitted almost perfectly (R-squared of 99.9%) with a quadratic polynomial. ... they can be expected to do 804 in 2015. That would completely blow away current 2015 estimates of 716."

    Though that statement may have seemed ludicrous at the time, it's not looking ridiculous any more. Currently, estimates for 2015 have ratcheted higher to $753 and it's more than conceivable that it will go up another 20 million, if just for the Q1 2015 update. So we are going to get at least $773 as the estimate for 2015. Now, tack on the momentum off the Q1 2015 numbers (these are continuous variables, after all), and it goes up a further several tens of millions. Suddenly, $804 million is not looking crazy.


    With the Q4 2014 numbers, the model now estimates $806 million for 2015. The breakdown is: $191 for Q1 2015 (this was about what the model projected in Oct, so their estimates in the c. call lend credibility to my model), $192 for Q2, $199 for Q3, and $224 for Q4.

    And REMEMBER THIS IS JUST BASED ON CURRENT BUSINESS. In other words, the new lines are NOT included.

    Thus, estimates are going to soar, well over $806 million. Perhaps another $20 million, to $826 million. This stock is going to take off like a rocket.

    Sentiment: Buy

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