Why don't you guys trade a pair,
Long Joy at 15x eps or any other European companies geared to the miners' Capex/Opex, such as Flsmidth, Outotec, Metso (a fair chunk of paper capex here), possibly Atlas Copco, or even small UK listed Fen ner (one word), who is tremendously geared to the coal industry, trades at 11.5x eps and has not reset market expectations yet?
I bought some as well yesterday for a long-short pair. Order intake and end-of-year backlog a tad better than Barclay's estimate. EPS 2013 revised downwards by 7%, current PE of 8x gives a safety net.
I'm short Fen ner listed in London (conveyor belt, geared to the coal market), which has lower margins, lower ROCE, is more expensive (11x) and has not fully reset market expectations down for 2013.
It is also only marginally cheaper than two other large European companies geared to maintenance & expansion mining CAPEX that are diversified away from coal.
Two directors sold some shares in November as well.