A company this large and diversified should have the free cash flow to survive and grow until the credit crisis is resolved with needing a loan shark deal from Buffet. The fact that they had to accept such egregious terms from Buffet is alarming at the very least. After all, look at the other company that had to accept this crap deal from Buffet.
BIG FLASHING RED FLAG
It's amusing to me to read all of the bashing of shorts on this board by the likes of Thrash, Hillary, and Elvis. The hardest thing to do in investing is shorting. It's is only for experienced investors who have done solid research and have strong stomachs. Yes, stocks can blow up in your face for a quarter or two or even longer. The equity markets are rigged to go up. Shorts are fighting the Wall Street Financial Complex and now the Federal Government as well. Every day, a cavalcade of analysts--paid by investment banks that want to generate banking revenues with secondaries--pound their fists and tell people they must BUY! BUY! BUY! before its too late. And then, when the have exhausted the market of any modicum of upward momentum they short the market and exacerbate the sell-off. We have seen this creation and deflation of asset bubbles time and time again. They did it with MBS's. They were selling this crap paper to pension funds and shorting it at the same time.
Due to the abundance of sanguine propaganda from the Government, Wall Street analysts, Industry Trade Groups and corporations, stocks have detached from the fundamentals. But, the markets and stocks ALWAYS eventually find their way back home to fundamentals.
So, has the market had an amazing rally over the past two quarters? Yes. Has the rally taken SPG up with it? Yes. But secular bear markets are always punctuated with huge violent rallies. This is largely due to the lack of confidence in the market and the large short interest that results from that lack of confidence. Yes, there has been buying out there by the big funds; but much of it was out of necessity to chase performance after getting banged up last year. And, yes, that buying caused further upward momentum by all of the short covering.
Despite the impact these exogenous forces have had on SPG's stock in the short term, none of these things in any way reflect the long term fundamentals of SPG's business--which are horrible to anyone who understands economics or financial analysis. I am sure that most shorts on this board have placed their bets on the thesis that the economic recovery that the markets are expecting in 2010 is not coming--and it's certainly not coming in CRE for years to come. I am firmly in that camp. This means that when the markets finally come to terms with the fact that the economic recovery isn't coming anytime soon, well...you know.
I have not heard one single coherent, logical argument from a long on this board as to why SPG is a good fundamental buy. Asset values are deflating rapidly in CRE. Leverage is through the roof at SPG. They are near a dilution adjusted all time high--when asset prices were 50% higher and the CRE market was on fire. Vacancies are rising as existing leases are being renegotiated at lower prices. And this trend is likely to continue for at least two more years while billions in debt will have to be rolled over at a higher cost of capital.
Yes, shorts have gotten banged up good in the past two quarters. But those shorts with the conviction that they are fundamentally correct will be rewarded when all of this misplaced euphoria comes out of the market and people start focusing on the fundamentals again. Or, maybe before that happens, the Wall Street Financial Complex will simple decide that they cannot make any more money sucking in the lemmings on the way up, so, they will load up on shorts and take it down. But, one of those two things will happen; most likely before the end of the year.
So, as for you short term momentum/technical traders that choose not to focus on the fundamentals, go ahead and try and scalp profits where you can. I, as a short on this stock do not begrudge you for that. But try and act like adults and be respectful of those who are on the other side of a stock with a different thesis and time horizon. In the end, we both may be right.
BAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!! What a dimwit you are! Most of the independent tech media has said that the iphone 5 is the best smart phone on the market. AAPL has proven this weekend (by selling out of the mini in hours) that the low end of the tablet market will soon be theirs. And, this is before they come out with 3g or retina display, so at least two significant product upgrade cycles from here with the mini. AAPL can make their products fast enough. Demand is so strong, AAPL products don't fly off the shelves, the never make it to the shelves!!! They will sell 50 mm iphones this quarter!! This quarter will be the biggest in AAPL's history and the biggest quarter ever reported by a company in the history of companies!!! So, great call numb nuts.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Nice call, moron; and even better grammar. Is this the best the Boston school system can produce? You must have gone to a technical school in Dorchester. Obviously they didn't cover grammar in any of your wood shop classes--let alone financial analysis. You need to get "hooked on phonics" and get back to us in a few years. LMFAO!!
This company clearly has the wind at its back. Great products and the cool factor will keep this company growing at a parabolic pace for some time. This company had some early missteps but Jobs has completely turned this ship around. Talk to any high school student or collage student and ask them whether they would rather have an Apple or a PC--no contest. There is a huge vector change a foot. The new generation and future generations will be buying Apples. It's not just about ipods or iphones, it's everything they do. Do the research. I have gone into a dozen Best Buys in the NY metro area and asked what percentage of total computer sales are Apples. Do you know what answer I get? On average, 30% are Apples!!!! That greatly exceeds their current market share of the PC market. Lay onto this the fact that they are starting to crack the enterprise market due to the disaster of Vista. Also, lay on top of that the booming economies around the world that Apple has barely penetrated yet and you would have to be a complete IDIOT to be short this stock.
Having said this, most of my portfolio is short. I have been an active short seller for 20+ years and have made a lot of money shorting. AAPL is one of my few longs. If you want to short, short homebuilders, mortgage companies, mortgage insurance companies or consumer discretionary stock. Why lay down in front of this bus? I'm sorry, you just have to be stupid.
Google's forward p/e is 30. Apple at a 30 p/e would be selling at $1,500.00 a share. You're only a little more than half way there.
AAPL will be up tomorrow with China Mobile announcement and upwards earnings revisions. Analysts will be up all night tonight adding DoCoMo, China Mobile and a two new phones to their earnings models.
Stevie Cohen, for those of you who know of him, is one of the most successful hedge fund managers in history. He is also one of, if not the, most plugged in guy in the investment game. Do you really think he would have doubled his position in AAPL if he didn't think AAPl was a great investment at this point?
Also, this movement doesn't shake my hand one bit. Look at a chart of AAPL. The price is still within the well established upward channel. This stock may bounce around in the high 340's for a couple of days, but that should be it before it resumes its upward trend. Personally, I think it will be up next week.
They should just put a muzzle over her mouth and a bag on her head. What an annoying #$%$.
The rise in SPG's stock price, as well as the broader market for that matter, has nothing to do with fundamentals. It has been driven by big funds chasing performance and consequently causing a mother of a short squeeze. When the pendulum swings back the other way there will be no fundamental reason for anyone to hold most stocks at these ridiculous levels. Especially ridiculously valued REITs like SPG. Big funds program trading into the IYR (SPG is largest component) to chase performance is a huge part of the run up in SPG and the other IYR component stocks. When the algorithms tell the computers at the big funds to start selling it will already be too late for the retail longs without tight stops to get out with their asses.
As for the retail market, it is a horror show. Yes, mall owners have long term leases so they are insulated to a degree in the short term from the carnage. But we are several years away from a bottom in the market and it will become increasingly more difficult for the Simons to put lipstick on this pig. Existing retailers are going bk, consolidating stores (blockbuster 1000 stores closed recently), and renegotiating leases mid-term. Manhattan is a sh*t show. Empty retail space on every corner. I have lived here for 17 years and have never seen anything close to this. And I'm talking about retailers like Barnes and Noble and Pottery Barn going away, not just the mom and pops.
Commercial real estate historically bottoms two years after unemployment peaks. So, let's say in a best case scenario that unemployment peaks in the middle of 2010. That means that the bottom will be the middle of 2012. But wait, even in that scenario rents will not bounce back immediately. Historically these real estate cycles can take 15 years plus to get from peak to trough and back to the previous peak again. The last real estate cycle in this country took 17 years to do so. So, it is conceivable--and probable-- that that it could take many, many years after the bottom for SPG to be negotiating new leases at the prices of just a few years ago. That gives you a REIT with declining earning for the long term with hard assets that have already been shaved by more than 50% from peak values entering a period where the cost and availability of capital will be extremely onerous. Oh, and don't forget, it's entering this period at near an all time dilution adjusted high.
Under normalized conditions stocks trade at or near all time highs when the prospects for future earnings growth are bright. That is clearly not the case here and these are clearly not normalized market conditions. But, one thing is for certain, at some future point the markets will normalize and stock prices will revert back their historical valuations.
The only thing extraordinary about her is her breathtaking ignorance and the constant Apple Reality Distortion Field she chooses to remain in.
Dude, you must be pretty hard-up if you think she's hot. Better stick to porn.
Mike, your stupidity is truly breathtaking. 6 months, huh? And you posted this back in February. I hope you are only trading a fantasy portfolio or you would truly be broke. And don't give me that BS about your rating again. The only thing you rate well at is being wrong. That has been clearly documented in this thread.
Once again, your twisted sense of logic exposes your instability. It is you who has been a broken clock for the longest time with all of your Pollyanna crap about the U.S. economy. Maybe, eventually, a few years from now, things will start to normalise--if we are very lucky. I'm sure you will then claim victory on all of your Pollyanna optimism even though you will have been wrong for many years.
As for your prediction for an April rally, so what? Even if you happen to be right--by pot luck I might add--bear markets are punctuated with several violent rallies. The market is currently off 53% from its high and will probably be off 60% by the end of March. So, even if the market has a 50% rally in April (which it won't), the market will still be off 40% from it high. Which leaves most of the boomers in the same place they are in now--unable to retire with their 201(k)s. In fact, at a 7% annual rate of return it will take Americans 10 years just to get back where they were before they lost 50% of their assets in the stock market.
So, Mr. Broken Clock, time to stop calling the kettle black.
Laughable. The man is a clown who believes in marginalizing the U.S. to the benefit of the rest of the world. He doesn't understand the first thing about business and the economy. Why would he? His only real world experience is as a "community organizer," LOL
Ha! Same stupid argument from a broken record. There is no evidence that anything less would have been accomplished without economists. On the contrary, more probably would have been accomplished since we would not have been getting incorrect and misleading prognostications from these textbook nerds. As for the six people you cite, LOL, one could pick any major and find a half-dozen high profile people that had that major and then became wildly successful. There is no correlation to economics whatsoever. But you keep thinking that, Sport.
Not surprising that he's better at taking tests than articulating his thoughts.