Well I finally did it. After three years with
WHC, (some of it profitable), I finallly had to get
out. Left at just under 9 and rolled it into an
internet related group. I dont want this to look like and
add for that group so I wont mention them, but lo and
behold four days after I moved those dollars From WHC -
my new stock announced a stock split. Yaba daba do.
Maybe I will come back to WHC - with twice the position
at a lower rate - I still love the idea of them
doing well when all else collapses but - I couldnt
stand looking at the WHC position every day. Took the
loss and went hunting.
Good to see others with notions of diversity out
there. Ive been kicking myself having missed the boat on
a couple of other stocks that I had a hunch about
and upon which I pondered too long. Each one has
performed dramatically in the last months and ive been on
the sidelines thinking. It seems Action is the word
for the day. Just yesterday I heard of another but it
is in the 119 per share range which is a bit higher
than Im used to. it came recommended by a real player
PXCM - its one of those internet thingamajigs. Its no
secret having been one of the top performers of the year
but there is something up in that soup and I may jump
in with a little change just because i enjoy the
thrill of the risk.
Good luch with your ventures
No merc in this persona. You have a great memory,
yep Grandma was loooooooooooon on what would become
Dillard, having been in Holmes since its inception in the
1800's. I dont see how you can glory at the current state
of DDS since over the last years it has dumped 50% .
And since discord is rampant in their ranks. Every ex
dillardite I meet was miserable - and left. Mercantile
stores like dillard are the buggy whip , blacksmith of
the new century - especially when you will soon be
able to buy everything they rep directly from the
manufacturer. Good luck. PS. In the last 12 months my
portfolio(genetics, fuel cells, cell chips, private prisons, and
medical stocks), is up 87% - obviously I own no DDS.
It took great pains to dump DDS four months ago
at a $72,000.00 loss, (we came in in the 40s and
left in the low 20's). But having gotten the DDS
monkey off of our backs it is truly pleasant seeing +
marks next to the value of where we went. See SAWS,
IMDS, BLDP weve made up more than half our loss in the
last two months. DDS is a buggy whip factory DUMP NOW
and DUMP STRONG.
With all this banter about the Wackenhut company
I couldnt help but comment. I purchased Wackenhut
WHC strictly because of contact with Wack employees
at a Job site on which I was the site designer.
These Wack employees were from the security company and
I purchased prison because of the potential
volitility of that industry. I have bought and sold and have
made money. Currently Im in at 15 and 12. Regardless,
the employees that I came into contact with were
happy and very , very specialized experts. Security
system designers for Foreign Embassies and securtiy
staff with super credentials and attitude; Very
specialized security - I cant imagine better credentials than
these guys had - special forces, etc. One would think
that this quality would be "in house" for prison
division also. (Yes I know special forces guys are not in
the prison guard system but a well run company is a
well run company.) Loooonnnngggg on WHC
I have to agree. How could there be a lower end
to this scock. I feel about WHC like I do the New
Orleans saints. I was raised in New Orleans during the
sixties and seventies and I bleed black and gold. They
never win but I love em just the same. WHC on the other
hand have won for me in the past but have
underperformed all of my other stocks - still I love em. My
feeling is that when the dustbowl returns and we are all
packed up and ready to move to where the jobs are - the
only thing that i will possess of any value will be my
shares of WHC. Either that or Ill find myself sitting in
prison in 20 years and voting my WHC proxy. HMMMMMM GO
WACKENHUT. By the way I hear the old man George W is as
healthy as a horse - anyone know how much he is involved
I know that I said I would be gone by
now; I am out of DDS but jsut wanted to report the
local Orlando radio just reported that the Heisman
football player who was nabbed in Dillards weeks ago will
play for FSU in their game this week Against Clemson.
He must donate the clothes in question to a charity
pay a few hundred dollars in court costs, stay away
from Clemson and has a period of probation. Good Luck
with the future and DDS
Well guys and gals its been interesting. Im the
guy whose mother inherited 3111 shares of dds two
years ago and who has been questioning the dramatic 50%
loss in those months from 44 per share to ouch. The
3111 shares was part of a much larger 15 k block which
was part of a much larger portion that our family has
carried having owned a controlling interest in DH Holmes
in New Orleans dating back into the 1800s. Tomorrow
we sell, the 3111 shares are down over 70k but we
cant sit and wait for this merc stock to hopefully
recover in two or three years especially in light of what
can become a volatile economy and merc. market. Like
it or not DDS has to recognise that they have a huge
employee attitude problem - Ive been asking questions for
the last months and ive encountered a few dozen
current and x dillard employees - not one says good
things about the company. Good Luck in 2000. Bye. Watch
out for Etail and youthful silver spoon owners.
I agree with you totally.
In almost any town in america if you
attack the football hero - regardless of the offence -
there is usually fallout. There are countless women on
countless campuses that have been raped by football
players. These women tend to become outcasts for standing
up for themselves.
I predict Dillards will
not prosecute - the fallout may be too large. On the
other side of the coin - if Dillard's does prosecute
they may find a windfall of attention from retailers
who are sick to death of looking the other way for
football criminals. We will wait to see. I vote for
O.K. all of you Dillard accountants and store
managers; here is a reprint of a portion of an article from
the Orlando Sentinel, Oct. 8, 1999. I�m curious to
know if this is a workable scenario that subverts
Dillard�s tracking system of their merchandise or if the
current system would have eventually turned the
merchandise up as having been stolen. The text is a
description of how a two Florida State football players and a
friend who, to a point, succeeded, in walking away with
over three hundred dollars in merchandise for
A reprint of a portion of an article from the
Orlando Sentinel, Oct. 8, 1999:
"According to the
Tallahassee Police Dept, an off-duty officer was watching the
Dillard�s security monitors when he saw Warrick, Coles and
another male approach cashier Rachel Myrtil on Sept. 29.
Each was carrying several articles of designer
clothing. Coles placed the first bundle of clothes on the
counter and Myrtil scanned in the items, which came to a
total of $ 244.38. She then voided the total and
punched in a purchase price of $10.70 on the register.
Coles handed her a $ 20.00 bill; Myrtil gave him $ 9.30
in change and placed the items in a Dillard�s
"Coles handed the bag to Warrick. He
next placed a second bundle of clothes on the counter.
Again, Myrtil scanned the total, which came to $
"Again she voided the total and punched in $10.70. Coles
gave her another $ 20.00 bill. Myrtil gave him the
change and put those items in a shopping
"Warrick and Coles then left the counter each carrying a
bag of merchandise."
Is this a wrinkle in the
tracking system that is costing Dillard�s big bucks. This
could be volatile if as many Dillard employees are as
angry as this board paints.
If Dillard jumps into etail my dark view of their
position will brighten.
There are just too many
people out there, like me, who walk into the store once
a year, buy ten polo shirts and see ya next year.
No need to touch and feel. Show me colors, patterns
and sizes and you've got a sale.
then one wonders why the need for Dillard. Why
would'nt Ralph Lauren and others simply market over the
net. Ill bet you could even sell perfume over the
Its all marketing.
Bulldog and the rest,
These are a few
thoughts regarding the long view of Dept. store
merchandising in light of the potential of emerging internet
sale of merc. items.
I know that playing �long�
is to one person completely different to another. I
am, for example, �long� on fuel cells and genetics
because I believe that both technologies are the going to
bring sweeping, and profitable, change to life in the
next mil. So I sit �long� with dollars in both that I
wont even look at for ten years.
fuel cell and genetics investments are purely
speculative in nature I also pursue courses that represent
fare less risk by investing long in businesses which
are more entrenched into the fabric of society. I am
long for example on WHC Wackenhut corrections,
Colgate, and GE and I expect that these investment now
will be worth a reasonable bit more in 30
With regard to DDS, I sit long by proxy, the family,
having held a bulk of shares since it�s inception. My
fear is that the last nine years has proven to be
disastrous to the DDS �longs� and that the next five years
will prove to be even worse.
This is why I
believe it is insane to be in and �long� on
1). If you were holding 24 months ago DDS is more than
�100% and most future predictions have us "maybe" at
1997 per share value somewhere between a 2002 or 2004.
2). Currently DDS is trading at its 1990 rate. First week of 90
= 21 11/16. Long on DDS since 1990 has been
3). I believe that middle end merc. Businesses like
Lands End and LL Bean will taste the success of moving
product over the net and begin to pour more and more
resources into net sales, the result will be that dept
store sales will suffer greatly. Dept. stores are
looking at a market share approaching �20% at the
inception of internet sales of high end dept store items.
4). The volatility of internet marketing and sales can be
seen in the success of ebay which boasts 6 million
visitors and 1.5 billion page views per month. Currently
the new site introduced today by dell and micro and
100 computer related mfgs., estimates 50 million
visitors per month and 12.5 billion views PER MONTH. How
can Dillards compete with that method of marketing
4). Further exacerbating the potential
decline of DDS, being currently entrenched into mall
locations, is the modern movement away from �Mall�
development and toward retail districts fully integrated into
a neotraditional fabric, (see Disney�s
Celebration). Malls have for some decades represented a total
immersion into a segregated retail Land Use surrounded by
oceans of parking. The only real current draw to malls
is the desire for some shoppers to socialize while
Ok lets see, DDS, Hmmm
Low risk � that�s
Insider activity � unfavorable � that�s bad.
in same store sales � that�s pretty
Operating income rose 31% since march � that�s very
30 day price change in % = minus 29 %- Id say that�s
One year price change in % - minus 33% -
That�s even worse.
Return on Equity 4.8% -
Quality ranking A � that�s good!
Modest double digit
earnings over the next few years � not so good.
investment 5 years ago is worth � 6,420.00 � that is very,
very, very, bad.
Sales declined per sq. foot from
159 to 157 in 99 � that�s never good.
turnover of inventory in the dept store arena � that seems
also to be not good.
Dillards long term debt is
Even at its current low it is rated a strong hold �
that really isn�t good.
Positive investment outlook
for dept stores � that�s good.
sales pace in second half of 99 � that�s not
Cost cutting is a priority for success � that is
usually bad too.
Older consumers are less interested
in fashion � that�s bad.
Older consumers hold
price as an overriding issue � that�s bad for
Younger consumers are very, very high tech and visit
malls to mingle. - again bad for profits.
companies are developing web sites � Dillards � I don�t
Crazy thing about my family - we
dont speak of our financials with anyone, brothers,
sisters, even moms. The only reason I was able to see the
ancient Dillard holding was because of this succession
buisness in Louisiana - The Napoleanic Code . Along with
freeport and texaco, mobil and every other oil, copper ,or
gold related interest, (those things which are held in
every Louisianian's portfolio), i noticed this huge
$-70,000.00 red mark on her portfolio. Lo and behold it was
the buggy whip factory DDS. A big chunk went to mom
on 9/26/97 at 43.75 today we sit at 21.5. Hmmmmm.
You say that Value Line predicts that by 2002 or 2004
DDS will rocket to another 90 or 175%. Lets see if
they rocktet 100% we will be at 43. That will almost
get us back to 1997 - great. You must move in and out
of this stock with reasonable frequency to be so
happy. Kind of like me and WHC I buy at 19 and sell at
36, then I buy at 16 and sell at 25; just bought
again - tried to get in at 14 but was a little
Still you seem long on DDS, waiting until 2004. Were
you in DDS in Sept of 97??? If so why so
Ebay has 1.5 billion visitors a month. How many
visitors does DDS have? Lands End and LL Bean cater to the
same button down, 100 % cotton, Polo, crowd that DDS
does. They will be on the net as soon as the memory,
speed and digital clarity is right - we are almost
there. In 2004 Dillard will be very, very old news. Are
you expecting this same vibrant economy in 2004? It
is doubtful as Asia recovers and as high tech stocks
begin to adjust. You know it it the high tech stocks
that have kept us out of a depression dont you .
Ill try to bring more accurate criticism of DDs soon
- having someone help get some DDS facts straight.
More to come.
I do appreciate your professional
posture and intellect.
I�m furious at Dillard for dragging my mothers
portfolio into the sludge. I blame myself for not paying
closer attention to the details of her holdings. To me
performance is everything and Dillard simply does not
perform. More than 50% down over the last 24 months �
ouch! If you look at my holding - high tech � genetics,
semiconductor, fuel cells, electronic filter manufacturers, I�ve
outperformed Dillard by 500% during those twenty-four. My only
looser at the moment is WHC Wackenhut Security �
Privately run prisons; it is down, but even it is a gem
when compared to DDS, (its not hard to outperform a
company that is where DDS is). SAWS, BLDP, GE, GM, Texaco
� these are real investments.
The notion of
the Department store as the distribution center for
merchandise has had its day and will soon be dust. What has
the Dillard family done to react to the high tech
cyber world which is about to swallow them � they have
chosen to expand � to buy more buggy whip factories �
they are after all a real bargain right now � buggy
whips being in such great demand. And the latest gem of
the Dillard intellect � the introduction of spas to
draw the people in mass � the product of tiny minds -
real snowcone mentalities!
Fortunately, as we
sit on the verge of internet merchandising wildfires,
I�m not so foolish to hold dept store stocks. It
seems ridiculous to invest in a retail sales
methodology that grows more and more antiquated by the
second. It seems even more foolish for the Dillard clan
to be expanding their position in this antiquated
I've been out of Louisiana for
twenty years now and I had forgotten how simple minded
and myopic the people of Louisiana, Ark, TX, Miss,
and the rest can be. Don�t get me wrong � each of
those places they have their genius populations. The
way that Texas recovered from the oil crisis is
probably the single greatest recovery in the history of
this country. Louisiana on the other hand still has
its great food � though they still sit rocking away
waiting for oil to be king again; (Those waiting on
cotton to recover have finally all passed
Bottom line; to be content and happy holding dept store
stock that has lost 50% of it�s value over the last 24
months during a time of unprecedented economic stability