In the last CC, Solazyme mentioned signing on with 2 LARGE DISTRIBUTORS plus and . From my experience, many distributors start with a minimum order of product - enough to supply their markets. Probably hundreds of thousand of dollars of product - maybe more. Distributors have MANY large, medium and small customers. And a distributor will not usually sign on to carry new product UNLESS they KNOW there will be DEMAND. Most likely, they have tested their market and Solazyme's products. Doesn't that in itself tell us that significantly more product is going to be leaving the warehouse at Solazyme this quarter? Also, let's think more about this ... Solazyme's customer count INCREASED during LAST quarter. Doesn't that tell us that EVEN MORE product will be leaving the warehouse at Solazyme this quarter over last quarter? Now one last thing, it is probably safe to say that Solazyme will sign on MORE customers this quarter. So isn't that telling us there will be even more products shipping out from Solazyme to customers this quarter? ... Comments and criticism is welcome.
All you have to do is understand their story. Once you understand, you can quickly conclude "it's too good to be true". A company that can make a difference in so many fields and markets? No way! Grow fuel? No way! Feed the world? No way! Cure diabetes? No way? We know the old adage, "if it sounds too good to be true, it PROBABLY is". However, the mounting evidence is that Solazyme is executing on their plan and SELLING millions of $$$ in product. The progress is a bit slow but still in line with management's guidance. Comments and criticism welcome.
The silence from Solazyme is to not generate more business for now??? As a company, it would be bad to give bad service to 150 customers but great to give exceptional service to 75 customers, right? I got to that point with my business. I stopped advertising and basically cherry picked my customers. My guess is that they are supply constrained and only have enough resources for the customers that they have now. As a customer, I would hate to call them and find out that their lead time is a year. Or better yet, call and not get a call in return because I represent a small company. Actually, doctors do this all the time. You call and guess what ... They tell you that the doctor is not taking new patients.
Solazyme will hit analyst numbers this CC and at some point soon they will put the money they got in the capital raise to work in an expansion deal or off take agreement. My calculations point to 4300+ MT of production out of Clinton this year. The process is working. The stock price is low due to many reasons - Wall Street disappointment, weak hands, short selling ... I'm hoping the fundamental Solazyme story has not changed.
Oh and Algavia ... all these things are being crammed into Clinton. But Moema is coming online ... As we speak, processes are transferring to Moema. Could they burn capital on expansion now? Sure. As I think about it, the longer they wait to expand, the better their circumstances will be to actually do it effectively. Their cash flow, personnel and processes will all be ready.
The only reason that I see for a large inventory is that they need a buffer to do new algae strain development. But I'm not convinced that $5 million in inventory is huge. It seems so right now.
But you have to do new algae strain development too. Customers are waiting on that. Plus, it is bringing in revenue. Which leads to the need for expansion.
After looking at these numbers, the explanation for such a low number of Clinton production could be development of new strains. They are deriving revenue for R&D too. And factory time is needed for that. So I'm sure that it is a big juggling act. Which also brings to mind the need for inventory.
Product revenue for the first 6 months of 2014 was $16.7 million. Of that, I'm calculating that about $6.7 million is non-algenist revenue. I'll guesstimate that of finished goods inventory, $2 million is non-algenist. So at $2000/mt ASP that would be about 4300 MT of production. Almost all done at Clinton? That leaves about $13 million in Algenist revenues and inventory. Makes sense?
This makes sense since the revenue from the Solazyme Bunge JV is not consolidated. Nevertheless, I'm seeing about 10750 MT of sold and unsold production so far this year. If we discount 1000 MT for Peoria, that puts us at 9750 for Clinton. Comments? Criticism?
Let's break it down a bit further: there was approximately 8000 metric tons of production SOLD in the first half of 2014. 650 metric tons of production SOLD was from the Solazyme Bunge JV. Leaving 7350 metric tons of production at Clinton and Peoria. Peoria is a 2000 MT plant. Let's assume 1000 MT was produced in Peoria. that leaves 6350 MT that was produced at Clinton. Which means that about 31% of the production capacity for Clinton has already been SOLD. This is not counting the $5.5 million in finished good inventory. That translates to another 2750 MT of production. So, total production to date is about 10750 MT. Clinton's share of that could very well be about 8100 MT. THAT puts us at utilizing very close to 100% of Clinton's capacity by year end.
Comments and criticism welcome.
On Edgar's under "Item 2: Management's Discussion pg. 34" - when talking about the first 6 months of 2014 results and the $7.455 million increase in revenues over the same time period of 2013 it states, "The increase in product revenues was due to new commercial sales into the fuels and chemicals and oil field services markets of $5.4 million, which includes $1.3 million of product revenue from the Solazyme Bunge JV in the first half of 2014, and a $2.0 million increase in Algenist ® product sales primarily due to new product offerings and increased consumer demand. We began to sell more broadly into the fuels and chemicals and oil field services markets starting in the first quarter of 2014. These sales included our commercial launch of Encapso ™ lubricant and Tailored ™ oils as well as fuel blend"
This may be old news but I have not seen anyone mention that ... there was $1.3 million in PRODUCT revenue from the Solazyme Bunge JV in the 1st half of 2014. Now if I understand this correctly, the Moema facility started commercial production around May 29. So by June 30 the facility had already produced around 650 metric tons of product.
Also, there was about $4.1 million in PRODUCT revenue due to NEW commercial sales in the fuels & chemicals AND oil field services markets. So if we theoretically split the PRODUCT revenue down the middle, we can guesstimate that $2.05 million was due to the oil field services market (aka ENCAPSO). Any way, that is 1000 metric tons of fuels & chemicals production and 1000 metric tons of oil field services production.
All together in the first half of 2014 approximately 8000 metric tons of product has been produced AND SOLD.
The product revenue numbers above are from the last 10Q. REMEMBER, we have not hit the steep ramp of production yet. To me, it looks like there is market demand. DEMAND THAT OUTSTRIPS Solazymes production capabilities.
I would welcome any comments and criticisms.
Yes, I think the deal is worth about $3.6 million. Based on an $11 million savings over 25 years and 8 year payback that puts us at $3.6 million.
I'm guessing $3.6 million. What do you say? Also, the company says they have the capability to deliver 25 Megawatt systems. So, they could "easily" (sales of that size take time) increase their revenue big time ($25 million in one shot). We've got a winner! That's not counting the solar cell ... hmmm. I'm all smiles. :)