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Deutsche Multi-Market Income T Message Board

alw59saw 20 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 25, 2014 10:11 AM Member since: May 18, 2004
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  • Reply to

    Just for everyone's information

    by bacon2bacon Nov 21, 2014 11:59 AM
    alw59saw alw59saw Nov 25, 2014 10:11 AM Flag

    It's over $8 today, in just 3 trading days --- that's excellent. It almost makes their SPOs like day trading.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Day Traders Apparent

    by alw59saw Nov 19, 2014 6:22 PM
    alw59saw alw59saw Nov 22, 2014 12:00 PM Flag

    If that were the case, why aren't they borrowing a Quadrillion dollars today before the FED raises rates?

  • Reply to

    Just for everyone's information

    by bacon2bacon Nov 21, 2014 11:59 AM
    alw59saw alw59saw Nov 21, 2014 6:05 PM Flag

    Most shareholders of NYMT are in it for the dividends, not CapGains. So forget about the $3200 paper loss today because it will evaporate in week to come, but the dividend(s) will still be there.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Just for everyone's information

    by bacon2bacon Nov 21, 2014 11:59 AM
    alw59saw alw59saw Nov 21, 2014 6:02 PM Flag

    That has been the trading pattern in mortgage REITS, rising to pre-SPO levels within weeks after an SPO. It's also why you need to hold back some cash for future SPOs when they drop. Either that or look the other way when an SPO happens.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Just for everyone's information

    by bacon2bacon Nov 21, 2014 11:59 AM
    alw59saw alw59saw Nov 21, 2014 5:59 PM Flag

    I was a holder of AGNC for years until recently, when the share price stopped its trading pattern. AGNC is no longer a desirable REIT. That's why I switched to NYMT.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Day Traders Apparent

    by alw59saw Nov 19, 2014 6:22 PM
    alw59saw alw59saw Nov 21, 2014 5:54 PM Flag

    Of course they have credit facilities for short-term borrowing --- I have credit facilities for short-term borrowing, too --- and NYMT has used them in the past. BUT if you read their statement CAREFULLY, you will see that they have said that they plan to use the funds from the SPO not only to purchase new mortgage paper, but also to fund its operations. They said that because they know that it's ALWAYS cheaper to use SPO money for operations rather than pay interest to creditors AT ANY INTEREST RATE.

    So, while they have used short-term borrowing to bankroll operations in the past, going forward they do NOT plan to continue that practice unless absolutely necessary. THAT's what I know; do you?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Special dividend?

    by triloron Nov 21, 2014 11:37 AM
    alw59saw alw59saw Nov 21, 2014 12:24 PM Flag

    I never expected a special dividend because the timing was right for an SPO (i.e., rising mortgage interest rates, share price well above book value, and desire to growth the REIT business thru acquiring new mortgage loans, necessitating large amounts of cash). Now that the SPO has happened, the odds of a special dividend are nil. The greater probability is that they will increase the dividend in 4Q 2015 or 1Q 2016, based on greater interest income from the higher-rate new mortgages.

    As my dear departed father used to say, "It all depends upon."

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Day Traders Apparent

    by alw59saw Nov 19, 2014 6:22 PM
    alw59saw alw59saw Nov 21, 2014 10:11 AM Flag

    They AREN'T borrowing at the short-term rates; they are issuing secondary stock offerings (SPO's) to raise cash for operations and to buy new home mortgages at the rising long-term interest rates. Short-term rates don't enter into the equation for mortgage REITS like NYMT.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Day Traders Apparent

    by alw59saw Nov 19, 2014 6:22 PM
    alw59saw alw59saw Nov 21, 2014 1:44 AM Flag

    Not true; rising rates (regardless of the yield curve) is positive for all mortgage REITS because they will derive cash from SPO's rather than borrowing at short-term rates. Witness the SPO announced after close yesterday.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Day Traders Apparent

    by alw59saw Nov 19, 2014 6:22 PM
    alw59saw alw59saw Nov 20, 2014 3:08 PM Flag

    You're right, I don't doubt that the majority of shareowners (including me) are in for the dividend rather than CapGains. As I see it, rising interest rates from the FED later in 2015 or 2016 will bring higher interest income for the REITS that invest in home mortgages, when the REITS buy new mortgages (as maturing ones come due). That could bring one of two consequences: (a) an increase in the dividend; OR (b) a restart of SPO's (to rasie money to buy those higher-rate mortgages). The key to whether (a) or (b) is the share price rising well above the book value (currently $7.01). If share price stays above $8, then NYMT can afford to offer more shares at a discount to attract buyers and still increase book value above $7.

    My guess is that the company will choose (b) to derive higher income. Later (say in 2016), they may be able to support a higher dividend AND additional SPO's --- that's how they grow their business.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • For the past several weeks (and perhaps months), it is apparent to me that day traders have been influencing this stock. Heavy volume in the first 30 minutes and heavy volume in the last 15-30 minutes are one sign of day trading. Another sign is price movement during those time periods, with the stock price moving in opposite directions between the two periods --- i.e., buying at the beginning of the trade day and selling at the end OR selling at the beginning and buying at the end to close a short position.

    Day trading can affect the short-term direction of a stock and likely will continue to do so until the day traders move on to more prosperous grounds. Day traders create no value in a company's stock; they just are there, wreaking havoc with the market in a foolish quest for profit.

    Keep this in mind when trying to decide whether to buy or sell, based on current market conditions of this stock.

  • Reply to

    KMM Is A Buy

    by alw59saw Oct 20, 2014 6:53 PM
    alw59saw alw59saw Nov 19, 2014 3:44 PM Flag

    As interest rates rise, so will KMM's income from newly acquired bonds. Falling bond prices won't affect KMM since they aren't a bond, but a stock --- and stock prices usually rise as bond prices fall and income rises. Investors don't watch portfolio value of this stock as much as they watch the stock price and income from bond interest (which will rise in future years).

    As portfolio bonds mature (at lower interest rates), that cash will be re-invested in acquiring higher-yield bonds, Interest income from the new bonds rises to improve cash flow and net income. After a few quarters of that cycle, KMM will begin to raise it's dividend again, as it has in the past. Just follow its historical cycle.

  • alw59saw by alw59saw Oct 20, 2014 6:53 PM Flag

    I've tracked KMM for more than 10 years with my patented analysis system. KMM is now a good BUY for those interested in bonds/bond funds. While it will be a few years in coming, as interest rates rise, so will the income produced by bond holders (such as KMM, as the replace lower interest corporate bonds with higher yielding ones). That fact will likely cause KMM to increase its dividend (now yielding 7.6%), which in turn will lead to higher stock price for KMM.

    So, buying now will likely produce a CapGain and higher yield down stream (probably 18 months - 2 years).

  • Reply to

    Stick a Fork in It!

    by sam_oyed Oct 7, 2014 11:47 AM
    alw59saw alw59saw Oct 14, 2014 5:14 PM Flag

    Yep, it's a penny stock now. Funny, pennies aren't what they used to be; it's getting so that even banks won't take them anymore (unless you have a very big account at the bank).

  • Reply to

    Stick a Fork in It!

    by sam_oyed Oct 7, 2014 11:47 AM
    alw59saw alw59saw Oct 13, 2014 6:19 PM Flag

    URRE was done years ago; most "investors" --- I use that term loosely when it comes to URRE --- just didn't recognize it.

  • Reply to

    EX-Div Date ?

    by ab6pn Sep 11, 2014 3:24 PM
    alw59saw alw59saw Sep 30, 2014 6:57 PM Flag

    P.S. They called Einstein crazy because no one understood his theory.

  • Reply to

    EX-Div Date ?

    by ab6pn Sep 11, 2014 3:24 PM
    alw59saw alw59saw Sep 30, 2014 6:55 PM Flag

    One man's garbage is another man jewels. You just have to be selective in what you pick up.

  • Reply to

    EX-Div Date ?

    by ab6pn Sep 11, 2014 3:24 PM
    alw59saw alw59saw Sep 30, 2014 6:54 PM Flag

    Sorry, not short or betting on a drop in share price. What I said about interest rates and income from low interest mortgages is absolutely true. However, after the FED stops its program of buying this year, mortgage interest rates should rise faster, making the purchase of mortgage properties by NTMT more attractive late next year. That would be the time for another SPO.

  • Reply to

    EX-Div Date ?

    by ab6pn Sep 11, 2014 3:24 PM
    alw59saw alw59saw Sep 30, 2014 3:36 AM Flag

    Dividend is more likely to be cut that to be increased. That's because income isn't increasing as rapidly as shares added from the last SPO (which also must be paid the dividend). Mortgage interest rates (that generate income for NYMT) are still very low and do not generate enough income to cover the current dividend amount of $0.27/Qtr. SPO's are best done when share price is above book value AND when mortgage interest rates are rising rapidly. Those interest rates need to be higher than those of current held mortgages; that's not the case today.

    Thus, it's likely that the dividend could be cut to $0.20-$0.25/Qtr so that NYMT doesn't have to borrow funds to pay out the dividend (or issue another SPO to buy more low-interest mortgages --- that's a losing proposition today).

  • Reply to

    EX-Div Date ?

    by ab6pn Sep 11, 2014 3:24 PM
    alw59saw alw59saw Sep 23, 2014 6:20 PM Flag

    The Ex-date is 3 business days from the record date. NYMT's statement says that the record date is 9/29/2014 for this $0.27 dividend. That makes the Ex-date 9/25/2014. The share price will drop on the open on 9/25 to reflect the payment of the dividend. The actual open price could be more or less than the $0.27 drop depending on buy and sell orders placed (but not yet executed) before the open.

KMM
8.81+0.03(+0.34%)Nov 26 4:00 PMEST

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