I had high hopes for CYNI but I think I have to cut bait here.
next qtr will be All or Nothing
Either they have some big announcements and this thing jumps to 5 or 6
or they announce a stream of "awards" and the stock drifts lower until someone buys them on the cheap.
their products are too strong for them to just disappear. someone is very likely to gobble them up for 100M or 150M.
I just dont have the stomach for it anymore.
good luck all
I expect that the div will be discussed when the quiet period is over. However , I would be surprised if it is actually declared until 2015, Q1
I hope I am wrong
they are clearly at a crossroads. if they make some big announcements, the 50M/qtr mark could happen in Q1 of 2015.
without some new customers, things are dicey.
this isnt a company that you are going to make/lose 10%.
more like make or lose 100%
its not your grandma's stock
maybe someday, but I have bought cheap LEDs and always come back to CREE products. now I dont even think about the cheap ones because they flicker and dont last.
I would rather pay for a quality product that I can count on.
CREE lights have been solid.
I am actually surprised they would give a Strong Buy to any stock under $5
usually analysts stay away from those.
I usually try to stay away from those myself but broke my rules on this one.
I tried to get the report but it hasn't showed up yet.
funny because Zacks just gave CYNI a strong buy
which is odd because I wouldnt expect a strong buy on any stock under $5
finally got an estmate
I bet the payout will be 50%, putting the dividend at .28 per qtr, 1.12/yr
for a nice 4.7% yield
the real PE is even lower, they have $10 in cash so the Fwd PE is really about 18.
the better metric is EnterpriseValue to Earnings, it factors in the amount of debt or cash that a company has.
the EV/E is 18, not bad at all
ok, no analysts are giving this attention so here is my take.
Intl Revenue was strong.
Windstream is back in the picture which will add some stabilizing revenue, obviously a good anchor tenant.
A big sale being booked in Q1, also good which means 30-40M of Revenue is reasonable in that Q.
US revenue (not counting WIN) is flat to down. This is bad and I especially did not like the statement about being dependent on govt programs. This implies that the product does not provide enough value (NPV) on its own.
The key will be getting 1 or 2 top tier telcos as a new customer. If this happens, the stock could get way over 5. Till then, I think this thing flatlines at 4 until some news is released.
guesses for today's action??
I think it will close around 4.10 to 4.20. A nice gain from a percentage basis but still down historically.
I am not seeing much of an AH bump. I think most are afraid they might drop a guidance bomb on this party.
If guidance is positive though, watch out, 4.5 is likely with low 5s a real possibility.
Good luck all
so far so good,
Revenue better than expected. If guidance is good, we will be rewarded for our irrational risk taking.
This trade was against my rules but it looks like it will pay off.
"make it up on CYNI"
funny , I have that same irrational thinking at times. try to make it up on another one.
I am starting to get better with my rules. I ask myself "what is the most likely situation here?"
"which is worse? if it goes down 30% and I held or up 30% and I sold?"
I agree with you
I broke my own rules with this stock. I try to avoid any stock under 10 and never buy under 5.
these are good rules but unfortunately I have bent my interpretation for Never.
probably, the worst thing that could happen is that I make money on CYNI.
then, I would throw out all my investing rules that serve me well most of the time.
strange that this is capped at 23 given that there shouldnt be too many sellers under that price.
anyway, it is stuck here until we get some earnings estimates which should be happening in a few weeks. Once people feel comfortable that syf will be making over $2/share, the price will drift towards $25-26, ironically getting very close to the GE share price, or maybe not ironically, maybe by design.
why doesnt it make sense? GTAT is building facilities. RBCN has factories sitting idle.
maybe RBCN should just change to a REIT and lease space to GTAT.
but yes, selling at a loss and making it up on volume is not a great business model.
However, revenue under 10M is bankruptcy.
they have enough cash to last 4-5 more quarters.
but revs should be increasing by now. changing guidance from 19M to 8-12M is a disappointment of huge proportions, a punch in the gut that only a few analysts saw coming.
By the time 6 in wafers get meaningful revenue RBCN will have lost its advantage in that market.
their only hope now is that GTAT buys them for their idle facilities (while GTAT is building facilities)