I think the shorts have been active here. There are 7 million and growing, shorting mostly because this company is in Brazil, and Brazil is a disaster. If they start to do the share buyback, the shorts might have to buy back too. This could jump.
Drop on friday was due to record low iron ore prices in China. This drop in Iron Ore prices will probably continue. Short term VALE is probably going lower.
Take a look at what happened the last time MY spiked, starting in late September to middle October. It doubled, from 1.75 to 3.50. Then it dropped for the next month to under 2. Spikes are hard to sustain when a company is losing money and refuses to tell when it will be making money. This current spike has been twice as fast, a straight line up. It might last a few more days but you can bet there will be profit taking. If it doesn't happen, I still have half of my position. If it happens I'll buy again, because this will do well long term.
Brazil is moving the interest rate up to stem inflation and I guess that is keeping this stock contained. On the other hand, the real is moving up against the dollar, which helps the value of this stock here in the US. It's a tug of war and it's coming out even at the moment.
I totally agree on your long term projections. Nevertheless, I sold half of my position and plan to buy back after earnings at a much lower price. The stock tanked on the last earnings announcement and I'm guessing they will report a loss again. Also, nothing goes up without profit taking and this has gone up like a rocket.
All the metrics look better than anyone expected. This stock seems totally undervalued. Maybe the high interest rates are keeping housing stocks down.
I think he thinks he has already stolen the company from the stockholders and sees no need to communicate.
I'm I off here.
The problem is: the perception of this company is that they don't know how to rein in costs and make money. That was the gist of the Motley Fool article and probably the perception on Wall Street. If they continue to lose money, that perception will continue, and I'm afraid most of the recent gains will evaporate.