They spun-off their S. African holdings into SBGL, so in a sense, they did "split", but not in the sense that you are asking, like a "forward or reverse split of their shares". I have told myself, being long long-dated options, "is t his so much of a difference company" since they relinquished their South African holdings into a separate company, that they must trade a whole new metric, so much different than their former self? My answer is mixed, and my bottom-line is that this is "way way over-punished" for the not-too-bad results delivered last quarter. They turned a profit, by God, a meager +$.13 cents, butt a profit nonetheless, all without factoring-in ANY of their new Australian properties! Of course, they need $1,250 gold to "make-it decently" with their new restructuring, but that aside, this thing is getting hammered beyond any recognition of decency. Still, I've seen this play-out so many times in my "home-gamer's 10-year career", I'll watch from the sidelines, still-and-yet, and at this point, hope for more "punishment" to the mid-to-low $2's! It may not get that cheap, but why give this over-fear any due by "panic buying" here? Just wait for asinine, and with this sector in today's Market, I'll wait for $2-plus! But, if you can average-in and don't want to lose this opportunity at this level, then by all means!
All imo! GLTA!
I hear you, but look at today's gap from yesterday's close...I'd imagine that will get filled, no matter.
I think we could see a goodly deal higher than $4.95 6-month target; I think people are underestimating the effects of "No More Fed"; IMO, all the opposite effects than what "we've been told"; But one never knows, we'll see...
I hate to say it, as a subscriber to Barran's, I read their last call, Gold up to whatever level they said...and it crashes; To be honest, I take any "opinions" to be just that, even the pros get is drastically wrong. I rely on myself, my instincts, knowledge and intuition....NOT WHAT OTHER PEOPLE TELL ME; That's not to say, I don't respect "professional opinions", but it is to say, I don't count them as "gold" or "truth".
I have an old saying: "opinions are like A-holes, everyone has one, and they all discharge excrement"!
Just think if this could get to $2.00+ Wow...what an opportunity that could pose, imo! It's possible, GFI has been $2.00+ in its history! (Sept. 19, 2000 = $2.13) Wait-watch-strike, with as long-long term horizon!
Here is the latest list from GFI's competitors, on EPS from last quarter's results:
The ONLY one with positive earnings this last-quarter, yet the most punished! Use your own brain, do your own dd, and THINK, but wait for the "more ridiculous", imo!
I looked for news on Ameritrade...and the only thing I found was "S. African miners down", and some rational was given! IMO, there's not great rhyme or reason...unless some insiders know that the SEC is penalizing them for the ANC ownership stake?
At this point, one wants this to fall further and further; IMO, don't touch yet, but there is going to be a "key time to bite/strike", b/c this has been free-falling un-abated. We all know, unless an entity is going bankrupt, nothing falls forever, so instead of seeing this in a mal-sight, one must almost wish for more downside, and "wait-and-watch" and then strike like a cobra at the most opportune time.
I'm not here to cheer-lead, and this will be one of my last "pro-investment post". I may chime-in from time-to-time about "pricing", but this is developing into a unique and advantageous opportunity if you/we "play-it-right"; BTW, I'm suffering from buying too high, but I've held-off, waiting and now wanting, "absolute irrational destruction", which seems to be in the making!
Keep on eye of ill-SEC news that could happen, and further gold pricing collapse. Be very patient and bey very, very long! All imo!
Funny..."drama-queens" shouting, while the smart are waiting-and-watching. Shout it down, more-and-more...as we all know, whoever has been "in the Market longer than a month", stocks go to zero and below..."the sky falls on top of our heads", and gold goes to $250-and-ounce!
Keep up the good work, but the prudent, keep your eyes upon prudent strikes, BTW, it's not about "being a gold-bug cheer-leader", it's about making money from extreme over-sold, pessimism! And to the fellow who shouted, "gold is dead b/c interest rates are rising", please take a basic Economic Course 101! Interest rates rise big, inflation creeps-in, dollar falls! Of course, people have been led to believe that the Fed can "engineer the interest rate forever", but with the 10-year already bolting, can you imagine when the Fed is forced to lift interest rates, if they've already climbed "hard-and-fast"? Thus the "Fed conundrum" becomes apparent and the effects of trillions of assets to un-load becomes manifest.
Put-on the old "thinking-cap" and tune-out all the pundits "screaming at you about what to do and what not to do'; Read GFI quarterly report, and do some comparative dd against the likes of GG/ABX and hope and wish for a continued "down-down-down", and yes, detractors-confusers, your doing your job masterfully, keep-up the good work please! I got some $.10-cent strikes I'd like to bite!
Do your own DD, use your own mind, and tune-out all the distractive voices screaming at you that "they know best". I propose that "you know best, when you apply yourself"!
Look at the 10-year, up 1.79% today! Fed hasn't announced tapering yet; Are we to believe the 10-year won't bolt when they do? What's that going to do to the economy with interest rates are allowed to float to market equilibrium? Housing, autos...re-financing, consumer loans, corporate deal-making and restructuring etc...etc. et al!
Maybe all will go smoothly, and interest rates can be manipulated indefinitely, and the Fed's $3-4 trillion dollar balance sheet will have absolutely no negative effects on the Market and economy! That's a possibility I guess!
Actually that's what you want, for the Fed to ease-back, and Gold will take the initial herd-hit, b/c everyone is parroting that gold is tied to the Fed's asset purchases or not; But once the smart people steal the seller's gold, and the "inflated funny money propping-up the Market at record highs", then what? The 10-year goes on a tare, and the broad Market sinks! What will be good to have as a valuable asset at this time?
Yeah, keep parroting the herd's "Fed speak", and as a net gold buyer, [not exactly yet, b/c I'm waiting for the first big Fed pull-back, and golds consequent herd-induced collapse!], there will be a time when you want to own as much as you can possibly afford, imo!
Feel the pain for now, and yes, we have to hear these "I told-you-say folks", rub-it-in, but my advice is to "really think hard for yourself", and ask yourself, "what's really going to happen when the Fed begins to pull-back in earnest! If the 10-remains stable and the Market goes-on to reach still new highs, then this theory is absolutely wrong and bunk; But I think you're going to see the popping of a massive Fed-induced bubble that will send gold to record highs, b/c "what will there be left to hold"? If interest rates are soaring, the stock market is collapsing, people will begin to panic...and we'll see the real foundation this "huge Market rally" has been built. If you say it has been built on "fair market play, by organic growth, sacrifice and build-up, with good jobs and a vibrant economy resultant, then it will sustain and prosper; But if you say, it's largely Fed-induced and doesn't have the infrastructure to sustain itself, you'd better hold something with universal store-house of value, and dollars won't be it, imo! We'll see...
One decent strategy, imo, would be to continue to let this sink, with an eye toward an historic low of $2.00, then go all-in on a long-dated, LEAP option, such as the one highlighted above. Even with gold at $900 and below, unless GFI is ultimately going bankrupt, there will be huge money to be made playing some call--options, imo! Will keep the board updated from time-to-time. But I'm not dipping any more toes-in myself, until I feel like I have to, just to recover my original bet, and seeing how much coerced and concerted effort there is to actively harm this issue, I'm bracing for the absolute ridiculous, which is $2-plus-change!
GLTUA and may the detroyers burn in a fiery lake, as they will! Why do I say such, b/c I reviewed/read the last transcript, and imo, there was nothing that precipitated such abject negativism and concerted effort to destroy standing value, especially when you compare to the other miners and "money losers", that have lost billions! This issue actually turned a profit last quarter, yet I heard absolutely no one belabor, much less mention, that point!
IMO, take advantage of this madness, but being extremely patient, and saving plenty of power for the ferry-tale ridiculous!
PS: The big negative caveats are SEC imposed sanctions/restrictions from the ANC affair, and gold falling below $900!
Bid is now $.16 and ask $.20 I thought they were no-lose back at $.65 and $.75Now I'm thinking that if GFI falls to $2.00+, they could be had for $.5-.10-centavos; But the downside risk here, is the time factor of course. if it takes 6-months for GFI to reach such a nadar, risk rises. But if GFI were to bottoms in the next 4-6 months, and you could time your purchases at this strike-price, beau coups money is available to be made; Shame and sickening watching this strike become "worthless so fast though". Kind-of un-believable to my eyes, b/c even on days when the underlying stock wasn't that bad down, I've seen this strike drop-like a rock, almost every day/week. In fact, the ever since the Fed surprised the Market with not scaling-back, in their late-Summer FOMC minutes, this strike shot-up to $.80, and the next day, and every day since, it has literally fallen-off a cliff. I'm not a "conspiracy theorist", but I'll sure tell you, there's some extreme manipulation here, especially with this $7.00 strike, to turn it to absolute dust! Sickening, and it makes me want to completely stay away, yet I know "even the dogs bounce", and at some point, unless this "hits-the-ground, and is buried in a 10-foot hole in a stainless steel casket ", there's an easy double-triple-and-quadruple with this particular strike, even on a fat#$%$-dead-dog bounce!
My contribution to the board will be commentary, analysis, and monitoring of this particular call-option, not the least b/c I want to at least make my money back, wanting to get-back to par. Ultimately like to make some $$$$ too,but for now, just give me my money back thieves! Massive short syndicate in this security now, turning to dust any value we thought we might have had. And can you imagine if the SEC come-out with a negative ruling over the whole ANC affair? This could be almost a sub-$200 stock in that censure!
But barring that, take notice of the Jan. 15, 2015 $7.00 call, trading for pennies now!
Relying on Yahoo-Finance for accurate financial info seems to be juvenile at best. I've seen GFI's p/e jump around from 4-to-8, now 12? If that's accurate, this can be a $2-dollar stock easily!
Anybody have any real info? Will research other financial resources to gain a clearer picture. Wouldn't touch this with a 10-ft. pole, until I really have a better handle on p/e and other financial metrics. One nugget of positive, imo, was our results from 1-year ago, before we were divorced from what is now SBGL, although well-short of what we used to bring-in revenue-wise, you can see once they start factoring-in the Australian assets, we're right-back to our former total revenues, yet the pps is cut-in-half and then some, as if we are "1/2 the Co. that was"!
Finally, although I like the lack of drama on this board, there's not much relevant financial info being posted. No one has definitely come-out with accurate PPS-ratings, given our new financial metrics, but much like me, one encounters a lot of blind, "going to the moon, or crashing into the core" pom-pomming, without any facts to back-up such cheer-leading. Scarey investing techniques.
Keen insights anyone?
According to that big options sale and repositioning, some one is better on lower-lows into early next year! Just a word of caution...so save powder!
My long-dated options are so diminished (Jan 15, 2015 calls), I'm not even looking at them, but I'll look to try and make-back my money at some point in the future, with either the same strike or further-out. But I see this short-lobby is so intent on destroying this issue, it scares me to think how low they might want to take it! Thus, I'm sidelined, trying to not give my energy to these thieves, and "waiting" for more absurdity!
One thing that would be helpful for all us home-gamers here, is for someone to break-down an absolute rock-bottom fair price for this issue, given its fundamentals and Gold's macro-environment. I'd say, based on yesterday's results, that we should be over $6.00, basing this on other gold issuers p/e ratio's, all-in-cost-basis, earnings and restructuring; But obviously the "Market" says this thinking is bunk, and GFI isn't even worth $4.10 hardly at this point!
PS: Does pnb paribas still have a $10 pps target, after yesterday's results?
Really depressing, and as you say, "hide a watch for a while"; Yet, I haven't seen any legitimate "reasoning" why it is under such intense pressure? What's the rationale when they actually made a little profit versus the other miners losing billions? Weird and manipulative, but that's the "scam of this game, called the stock-market"; As I see more-and-more-and-more of an un-basis in reality, it makes me want to stay further-and-further away! I detest scams, and if someone can tell me "with authority" why it makes one iota of sense for GFI to be punished for yesterday's release, I'll rest more content; Otherwise, I'll give this issue scant attention, and seek to get my cost-basis back, at some time in the near future, one some kind of "bounce" and be done with this Scam-o called "Wall-Street"!
Lost my last well-thought-out message, so this will be condensed (head-ache factor trying to recreate)
1) Very good "relative industry results". Some profit instead of millions, billions in loss!
2) Restructuring well under way, while other major players are still in initial stages...
3) Over-all industry in severe slump, and shorters/detractors still control the stock price, imo
4) Investing Advice: Wait unit the "games are over" ,and this will be evidenced by big-volume up days and a sunnier forecast industry-wide. They can take this issue lower, even though, with today's results, this should be up $1 minimum, imo, as they've proven their early efforts at restructuring and are poised for better results as the industry recovers.
5) Look at those Jan 15, 2015 $7-calls, as they get cheaper-and-cheaper-and-cheaper!
All imo, and my track record is less than stellar...so good luck with every one's personal decisions here!
I agree in a way, and to disclose, I do own a miner, just not this one; But the reason it's "a way", is b/c these miners have to be able to show profits. It's all well-and-good for this to be a safe-haven in troubling economic times, but all stocks trade-up BECAUSE OF PROFIT, PERIOD!
Obviously the miners aren't profitable now, most of them, and many see gold prices trending much lower; So, it's natural to ask: "if miners can't make money with $1,300/1,200 gold prices, how much more if gold falls to $1,000 and below? I ask this question a bit rhetorically, b/c I think there will be a "wash-out" of junior, high-cost miners, and the "big-legacy miners" will find a way to "squeeze a profit out of lower gold prices", but I'm also not convinced that once gold puts-in a true-bottom, if gold prices aren't soon to soar given our real, fundamental economic pictures: Fed Reserv.'s $3-trillion to unwind, the Fed Gov.'s $17 trillion dollar debt to lesson and service and a divided Congress, with record low interest-rates and inflation, that won't last forever! Against that backdrop, I expect gold to do quite well; But there's also the danger, that we do indeed get our act together, knock-down a bunch of debt, bring-back a vibrant job-economy,, and prosper as a country and nation. Then gold could languish and fall back to $500, mostly as a value for jewelry and such; But I doubt that, b/c if you look around the world, most developed economies are "printing presses" and we haven't even begun to address the challenge of "deleveraging Sovereign's balance sheets around the world. And when we do, "look out"!
It's Goldman and they are doing the Fed's bidding, Gov. and Reserve; That's why they keep shouting about Gold going so much lower, and how it is a "slam-dunk-sell"; Yet you don't hear them "cautioning" about the recklessness Fed action and its potential consequences.
This is nothing more than a "short-lobby-cartel" working to keep people from panicking! Imagine if Gold was moving in the opposite direction! What would that be doing to Treasuries, the Dollar and such! No, it could be understandable to see gold plummet during "stable-times", but it is made more ludicrous and outrageously manipulative to see it do so when any rationale would dictate it going up!
But, no reason to fear or loathe. I wouldn't try to fight this concerted effort to "prop up the US Government"; Rather, it says so loudly "how bad things really are" and let's let them take it so low as they will; You'll know when it's safe to buy. Wait, imo! This is actually a gift for long-longs!