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Deckers Outdoor Corp. Message Board

american_chariot 47 posts  |  Last Activity: 2 hours 5 minutes ago Member since: Apr 20, 2004
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  • american_chariot by american_chariot 2 hours 5 minutes ago Flag

    Either they announce a buy-out ASAP, and they'd better already have everything agreed-to, or this goes down to $5.00 and becomes an absolute salvage sale. What other alternative is there? Is the business booming such that it will rebound with strong growth and sales, especially when $USD is King, and foreign currency is in the toilet?

    I hate to say it, but imo, this Co. has -1-way out! And they are a couple of years late at that!

  • Reply to

    A "worry",...

    by american_chariot 19 hours ago
    american_chariot american_chariot 17 hours ago Flag

    Good handle on the situation maranamv,

    I kind-of feel the same way, PBR is Brazil and "whatever it takes"! GL!

  • Reply to

    A "worry",...

    by american_chariot 19 hours ago
    american_chariot american_chariot 18 hours ago Flag

    Thanks for your reply; I'm playing a small position, and feel a bit as if I'm "gambling". Yet, reason tells me, minus default of some sort, the damage has been done. I can understand the delay of the write-down (I hear such would have triggered a default) and that they needed time, plus it's understandable that they can't give an exact figure, b/c it's a "supplier" problem, and they cooked-the-books, so it will take time to come-up with an "audited report" on that; Yeah, not surprised either about the dividend delay-cut-suspension. The question now is, can this entity survive? I have a hard time believing the Gov. wont step-up to back-stop things here. But yes, there are more favorable plays, except for the valuation level on this, barring a default or more "un-coverings" this thing is valued at fire-sale already, imo. GLTA!

  • american_chariot by american_chariot 19 hours ago Flag

    Anyone else worried about potential credit default to bond-holders? From Barron's today:

    "Fourth quarter audited financial statements, due by the end of April under bond covenants, or contractual obligations to bond-holders, could be delayed until June or later, Chief Financial Officer Almir Barbassa told reporters.

    Such a delay would require negotiations with creditors, he added. Without such negotiations lenders could declare Petrobras in default, a move that could force the early payment on as much as $54 billion of bonds."

    ______________________________________________________________________________________

    In my mind, that's the main risk with this stock. The other will take-care-of-itself. The recent results (though unaudited) are actually pretty good. I personally think this "scandal" will be gotten-over OK, but I don't feel comfortable about a "credit-default". In my mind, that's a real possibility...the Co. is saying June for audited results, yet such is due in April, and any delay would require the consent of bondholders. Do you think the bond-holder would push default over renegotiating? A credit-default would result in PBR getting decimated from this level, and could push them to insolvency, imo. What are other investor's thoughts? Tks....

  • Reply to

    Snapshot of 2015 DCF

    by bicepsbunny Jan 27, 2015 3:20 PM
    american_chariot american_chariot Jan 28, 2015 10:03 AM Flag

    I think the issue with me was trying to download from the wrong site. Typing in "Mega nz", brings up a host of "other sites, many malicious". You might have been more specific about where to download this file-PDF, instead of just generally saying to type-in "Mega nz" into Google's search-box.

    So, is the correct way to see your file from "Seeking Alpha or Twitter"?

  • Reply to

    Snapshot of 2015 DCF

    by bicepsbunny Jan 27, 2015 3:20 PM
    american_chariot american_chariot Jan 27, 2015 9:49 PM Flag

    Trojan Virus trying such; "Bunk", beware other users. Don't know whether your intent is malicious, but when Googling "Mega nz and putting-in that code you suggest in Megafiles.me", when one downloads, one is inviting a nasty Trojan virus and all kind of other malicious software.

    Be warned would-be down-loaders!

  • Reply to

    Snapshot of 2015 DCF

    by bicepsbunny Jan 27, 2015 3:20 PM
    american_chariot american_chariot Jan 27, 2015 4:35 PM Flag

    Tks for calculating and sharing; I hate downloading from sites un-known. Even with your bearish assumptions, what do you see for unit-price going into 2015? Most bullish unit prices?

    Can you give us a break-down of your numbers, without having to "download"? Tks...
    I

  • Reply to

    Typical

    by bicepsbunny Jan 26, 2015 10:28 PM
    american_chariot american_chariot Jan 27, 2015 12:47 PM Flag

    Correction:..."should read you CAN over-do it". (buying too much of a $2.00-stock, with wild dreams of upward movement!)

  • Reply to

    Typical

    by bicepsbunny Jan 26, 2015 10:28 PM
    american_chariot american_chariot Jan 27, 2015 9:16 AM Flag

    I don't see it that bad here, other than, "yes, I'd be upset if I were wishing this entity to be a steady income producer for many quarters to come", and IF I were under-water big-time (I know from too much personal experience how painful this is...); But I think they are in a sweet-sweet spot to execute in this crumbling oil-price market. They've got a lot of assets to deploy, and they can sit and wait for the best deals in a supreme buyers market. This stock is way mis-priced, but it may take the Market a while to figure-that-out. Unless there is fraud at HQ, with their dealings and agenda, my advice is to take one's time, and buy on weakness. Of course, you can't over-do-it, b/c a $2.00 stock that remains such for any length of time, is nothing but a lottery-ticket; That said, there's some big opportunity here for new-comers, or those that don't mind doubling-trippling-down.

    All this said, I can see how long-term shareholders would be VERY #$%$, if they bought-into a steady dividend at higher prices, only to see this $2.00-affair and a "maybe dividend". I feel the pain of that misery-state.

    I don't know enough about management to talk about trust. I don't offer advice or wouldn't go-to-bat for this Co. here at this price, other to say that it appears to be a good "gamble" at this price, buying on weakness, from these levels.

    GLTU and GLTUA! eom!

  • Reply to

    ETP to buyout RGP

    by joannesbros Jan 26, 2015 9:55 AM
    american_chariot american_chariot Jan 26, 2015 7:58 PM Flag

    Sold 3.3-million units, have 5-million yet to sell; Netted $82-million. The "distribution" is good to go for this quarter too. Not too shabby, imo! ETP merges/w Regency today, and maybe this will give the 5-million units yet-to-sell, more value? I have a sneaking suspicion "this was known all-along" by EROC and Regency. Maye that's why "class-action folks are screaming foul", saying EROC undersold their mid-stream business to Regency? At any rate, I'd imagine it gets all "washed-under-the-rug", and this should become more valuable than a $2-dollar-stock. One never knows, the shenanigans that money causes people to play. I prefer "upstanding, solid, good business", and I hope this entity isn't too far off the mark, in that regard. GLTUA!

  • Reply to

    EROC's assets...

    by american_chariot Jan 22, 2015 12:23 PM
    american_chariot american_chariot Jan 23, 2015 9:06 PM Flag

    Good point Edward...that's really the discussion and thought-process that needs to be fleshed-out here: Their asset and drilling locations, the life of their producing properties (13-yrs is my understanding, on average, on whole),;and what is the big challenge to just maintain their current output, with additional drops in crude-gas prices? I know they maintain a good percentage price-hedge for 2015, so that's stabilizing and should put a floor under this drop of unit price. We see where the price is here, with WTI at $45, but at $35, for any length of time? Yet it's double-troubling to see what this Co. did when crude-gas was at much higher prices: that is, it proceeded to precipitously drop. The question to longer-time-longs, is "how did that happen"? And what gives an investor confidence that if they couldn't maintain-and/or-increase unit prices in a much more favorable gas-price environment, how could they do any better when oil-gas is drop-drop-dropping to who knows what level? I know there must be a "rock-bottom price" based on even marginal output of their performing assets, and that's really what I'm trying to get-at here. Being a total novice to this sector, i can't tell you what there current output and their holdings are really worth, unit-price-wise. I wish someone with more knowledge could give us some better insight into the value of their assets. The one thing I do like about this Co., is there debt-level. So many other oil-gas outfits carry heavy-heavy debt burdens, so that is somewhat reassuring. So many questions, and a lot of answer to uncover before I can feel confident with the Co. appreciating in unit-value, needless to say yield offering.

  • american_chariot by american_chariot Jan 22, 2015 4:41 PM Flag

    There's a lot more to the power of this Co., than what they have been able to achieve with this management. Even if this rumor turns-out to be "just that", shorts and detractors are overly bearish on a strong-revenue, multi-channel, world-wide distributorship business, that has loads and loads of potential. In fact, it would seem more true than not, that someone, some entity, that knows how to extract value for this business model, might be salivating at the opportunity presented here, imo. I also think management knows by now, that "they'd better take whatever goodly amount of value that they can get from another now, while there is still interest at this level", b/c the space can be problematic with HLF's trouble's ahead and the whole multi-network marketing space. But Avon had done a lot of good for a lot of average folks, and this brand is probably more revered in other, growing, emerging markets, than the USA. Think Tupperware. I wouldn't be surprised if the rumors are true, and if they aren't, this looks like an attractive valuation way-down-here. Most other "rumor to get-up the share-price" company's, share-valuation is already way-too-rich to "play" the merger-game, but here, right now, I say one's losses are limited, if one holds through it all!

  • Reply to

    EROC's assets...

    by american_chariot Jan 22, 2015 12:23 PM
    american_chariot american_chariot Jan 22, 2015 4:10 PM Flag

    Thanks for everyone for replying; Interesting to hear different perspectives and seems like the consensus is that EROC is in decent enough shape to keep it afloat at this rock-bottom price. But I'd love to hear any dissenting views as well....

    Thank-you!

  • american_chariot by american_chariot Jan 22, 2015 12:23 PM Flag

    Just curious from others who have been with this Co. for a while, if you could offer the board here some color and "value" of EROC's properties. What kind of mix do that have from "outright ownership to leases"? I'm new to this sector, and thus I have a lot of novice questions to ask. I notice that they re-iterate their "13-year life of the bulk of their wells"; Is this a standard well-life among other producers?

    What gives this Co. "staying power above $2.00"? Are investors here fearful of a cut in the dividend in the next quarterly report? What would be a long's bull-case here for value going forward, especially in unit price? What do some see as the "worst case scenario" with EROC? How do bulls feel about the drop-in-price from April 2011 when this traded in the $12's,. down to now? Why would $2.00 be a bottom? Seems like this issue dropping below $2.00 would help solidify it as a veritable penny stock....

    I'm trying to do as much research as I've had time. I've owned very few oil-gas-plays in my life, and only one MLP. I'm just curious to learn as much about this Co./unit(s) as I can, and I'll take whatever analysis I can get, from others who are bullish-bearish, or somewhere in between.

    Seems like a $1Billion in Revenues could take a big hit with oil prices trending so much lower. How does 2015's hedging help protect that gross revenue number? Seems like with decent COH versus DEBT and $1-billion+ in gross revenues, that being a $2.00 stock just doesn't make sense.

    Thoughts, recommendations? Dipping my toe here, but can't quite figure-out has this security has managed to slip this low, even when oil was much-much higher, and what will/would keep it above $2.00?

    Thanks for your time! GLTA!

  • american_chariot american_chariot Jan 21, 2015 11:15 AM Flag

    ...we've sold $17million autos (largely with sub-prime loans!) and as President Obama said last night, our un-employment rate is below pre-crises levels (he forgot to mention that most of those jobs are part-time gigs, and the data is skewed b/c so many have dropped-out of the labor market) I'm not saying "things aren't better than March of '09", but what I am saying is things are no-where near better to justify 17k-18k Dow points, and that the bulk of those gains are all built upon "the Fed and its actions", and those are dangerous, dangerous gains. It is possible for entities, people, financial houses, to "lose Faith in the seemingly all-mighty Fed". As the world-over ramps-up Fed-like induced easing (money printing, don't kid our self!), from Japan, to Europe, to China, and as those same economies sink deeper-and-deeper into recession (wait until China's real weakness becomes apparent), along with the Fed supposedly raising rates in 2015 (can you imagine what will happen to the bond-market if they were to venture upon this path? In fact, I say, the Fed raising rates in the least in 2015 will create a Market Depression, therefore, you'll see a lot of talk, but in no way is it possible in this economy for the Fed to raise rates, and the stock Market to not take a huge hit. That's your whole litmus test for the REAL STATE OF THE MARKET'S HEALTH. Can the Fed raise rate? If the Fed cannot raise rates without all Heck breaking-loose, then that means all this QE beyond what kept us from the abyss, is a ruse to inflate the Stock Market, while real business-tied valuations lie somewhere below a Dow 10k! Hang-on imo!

  • american_chariot american_chariot Jan 21, 2015 11:00 AM Flag

    BC This isn't that, not by a long-shot! IMO! I'm a believer in Gold in "today's world", although I think the sprice of spot-Gold and the miners have "run pretty far pretty fast", out-the-gate of this new year, much like last year, when 1,400 was the target; I think you want to accumulate shares on the pull-back and sit-tight going into 2015/16 There's too much sugar-high running in the stock market--all precipitated on the "Feds of the world", and whether they will "ease or not"; Sheepaple think that since our "great money printing worked here so well, that it's a cure-all the world over, for whatever may ale an economy"; Forget "fighting through bad policy, excess in the markets, rampant speculation, a Uber-Bank in the Federal Reserve, pushing small fry (and everyone else in the Market who wants to gain more than 1.5% on their money), into the stock-market, forcing entities that had rather be elsewhere, to venture into the risky quity Market, thus pushing their valuation to sky-high, Fed-induced levels---No, forget what it takes to have a truly vibrant, equalized, solid financially- sound Market, and rather, turn to the "Money Supply Gods", to print our way to health. This is a failed strategy no matter who does it, no matter if it's "you and me running our finances", or a great Nation/State such as the US. The Fed should only intervene to such a huge degree, in the depths of crisis, when there's no other saving-grace to keep us from literally falling-off a cliff, such as in QE-1....But the problem is they've way-overstepped their bounds, and people have been led to believe, since they INDUCED the Stock Market into these unbelievable gains since the Great Crash, roughly from 7k Dow to 17k Dow, that means "we've recovered". How much better are we, the average Joe going about his life and job? Did our economy ramp-up worthy of 10k Dow points? Is business really that booming? You and me, we know it's not true. Sure, business is better, and we've sold 17

  • american_chariot american_chariot Jan 19, 2015 11:32 AM Flag

    No David, I don't have an inside scoop on who was pushing for a "specific amount of gold reserves in Switzerland", b/c the media here was trying to downplay it, and say it was supported by a "lunatic fringe", and I even heard talk that it was largely supported by "neo#$%$ right-wing Nationalist", but such talk was probably just a smear attempt to make it look like support for such gold-reserve requirements weren't mainstream. So, who knows on that!

    All I know is that we are beginning to see push-back from major entities, that don't want to engage in full-bore QE. This includes Germany, and their disdain to see the Euro pushed-down further, while the "warm-water countries of Greece, Cyprus and Portugal" are incapable, apparently, of true reform, and then you have essentially Germany on-the-hook to bail them out, while at the same time, they have less fire-power to do so, b/c of the falling value of their currency. Not only, but Greece is set to be led by a near-Socialist, who wants to roll-back many of the guaranteed reforms needed to help shore-up the Union in these more depressed economies on the coast.

    The take-away is, Europe is set to engage in massive Central Bank money-printing, while Germany is kicking-and-screaming, and the Swiss already showed how they feel about this whole venture, preempting such a devaluation of their currency by getting ahead of the curve of what they know is coming, and un-pegging the Franc from the Euro. This move was the "beginning-of-the-end" of the ruse, imo. Yes, the EU will engage in QE, but someone stood-up and said "not so fast with my currency". It's a small ripple in a tidal-wave yet to come of currency fluctuations, gyrations, and a search, the world-over, for real value, exempt from such shenanigans: GOLD!

  • american_chariot american_chariot Jan 19, 2015 10:25 AM Flag

    Good points...it's all coming-to-Light! The Swiss saying "no more Central Bank pegging B/S devaluation of our currency", China's market faltering, growth slowing, Europe wanting to QE their way to growth, Japan QE-d beyond any realm of legitimacy and still struggling, not able to pick-themselves-up-off-their 10+ year slump...commodity (copper-and-oil) destruction, interest-rate destruction. People may not see what's coming, but look at a 100-year chart of the Dow! It's scarey what lies ahead, imo, and much of it exacerbated by Central Banks and their efforts to enrich stock holders, while inflating asset prices beyond any realm of legitimacy; All the while, screwing-up the Market's natural cycle, that would tend it toward equilibrium (eventually anyhow) if it wasn't so manipulated and "cracked-up" on Central-Bank money-printing! Not only is there chatter that the Fed will hold-off on interest-rate hikes well into '15, but now there is even talk about QE-4!

    Where will true "currency" value lie in he wake of all this? Gold, imo; Plus, look at the miners and see how they are coming-off historic-lows on high volume. Also, do be ware, the run-up was fast, and there are some gaps to fill, so those of us who missed the big-move and were feared into holding-back by daily "shoutings" on how low God would fall (that was all Summer of '14 and heavy-heavy in Oct/Nov. right before Gold too its charge up-up-up!) might get another crack at it, should those gaps fill!

    GLTA!

  • american_chariot american_chariot Jan 18, 2015 10:06 PM Flag

    I see that across a lot of these oil/gas plays!

  • Reply to

    one free advice from me .....

    by ivodirect Jan 15, 2015 1:39 PM
    american_chariot american_chariot Jan 18, 2015 8:35 PM Flag

    Gap-to-fill from $6.36-$6.43

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