Some of the most impressive manipulation I've ever seen; I've given-up on fair value when gold is up nearly 2% on the day, yet low-and-behold, if it's down -1%, the gold-miner stocks will be down un-real percentages. It's really simple at this point, the Fed is doing everything in their power to keep "paper stocks up" in value, with a strong-strong dollar (nothing wrong with that, if the true equilibrium of the Market was the cause), and lower commodity prices, especially gold-and-sliver. There's going to have to be an "shock-and-awe" situation in the Markets, before we can break-free of this false paradigm. I've come to expect that until we get such a catalyst, it's "business-as-usual" with QE around the world, and "good-times for the corporate world".
Truth always has a way of surfacing, and we're getting closer-and-closer to "truth-day" for the Markets, and that will be when the Fed's hand is forces on raising interest rates. IMO, and simply stated, there's been so much damage done by the Fed from their over-involvement and zealot-like abandon to inflate stock prices, that when they attempt to step-back, the results will be a "deflation of those same asset prices" to a degree many don't expect. Of course, they are trying to "hold the Street's hand" by saying that the rate-increase will be VERY GRADUAL, but they might not have the luxury of such a graduated increase, once mayhem hits the Streets with their first rate increase.
I say the Fed is "doing-us-in" for short-term gain. The rest of the world, is quietly shifting their allegiance and structure away from the US via China, and looking for a new reserve currency. China has set-up a new "international bank" that many of our allies are becoming members, and they are buying hordes of gold, much under-reported by their statistics. Why? B/c they are prepping for being a world financial powerhouse. Actually, Central Banks around the world are buying lots of gold. Why? You could guess if you analy
Update: All Major Appliances came yesterday, 3/31/15, to install the long-over-due Whirlpool compressor...only, when the technician (who still didn't want to NOT ware protective covers over his shoes...even though I reminded him that "we don't wear shoes in the house...) said he didn't like the look of the unit coming-out of the box, as it was missing parts and laid-on-its-side, out of the protective card-board stencil it should have been setting-in. He hooked-it-up nonetheless, and it ran for 3-minuets, then quit. So, now we have to wait for them to re-submit another order to Warrentec. I'm getting too tired to complain any more. This is so beyond ridiculous. Who else wouldn't feel like we do, after x3 weeks plus of no ref, now this? The whole affair has been fraught with amateur, bumbling non-sense, from the 2-3 days it takes All Major Appliances to even book an opening to see you, to my requesting at least a 30-minute window so I can quit my work and come escort the surly, non-friendly employee into my home, to Warrentec's cumbersome in-efficient, "approval first, and only ship from their their Texas-turf", to now this, a screwed-up "new compressor". I know sometimes "things just go wrong", but this is beyond that. This is a culture of "I don't care" and "we'll move on our time...We already have your money and what are you the customer going to do about it!" Answer, wait-wait-wait and wait, and call-call-call and cajole and be a lot less inclined to buy anything from HH-Gregg and sure as heck will never engage Warrentec, or their over-loaded, All Major Appliance outfit who won't give you a needed 30-minute window to quit your job so you can come play host, with a contractor who thinks we are "imposing on him" when you ask for him to wear protective covers over his dirty shoe as he insist on wearing his dirty shoes in our clean house! This is really way too much...
3-28-15 Update: Called Warrentec "AGAIN" on Thursday the 26th, and discovered that the part was in route. Got another call from All Major Appliances saying they should receive the part on Friday, but their earliest opening is Tuesday the 31st.
So, provided they come and install/fix the ref with the new compressor on the 31st, this "extended warranty repair job" took from March 4th when the ref quit working and I attempted to call HH-Gregg/Warrentec but they were closed for two days b/c of snow, so the order didn't get-in until the 7th of March through the supposed fix-date of the 31st of March, which equals 24-days or roughtly x3 weeks! How's that for service! Thank God it's not August! There's something wrong with the "chain-of-command" in that the warranty Co., acts so inefficiently to process your claim, 1) contracting-out to an local "over-burdened contractor" that can't even come and diagnose your problem for at least a "couple of days", and when they finally get here, they then have to 2) submit your claim to HQ in Dallas, and 3) The company has to "approve" your claim (that can take days in itself, then 4) They have to order-ship your part (more days) and 5) they don't even use an over-night shipping service but regular UPS parcel; and 6) The local contractor has to find time to "fit-your-repair" into their scheduling (more days of waiting!) How's that for honoring an extended service agreement! If I ran my business like that, I'd be standing in a soup-line waiting for my next meal. Come-on HH-Greg, you can do better than this!
PS: There's always a price to pay for "discounted", and usually that is in the "customer service department". I will say, HH-Greg has great salesmen in the showroom, and they are QUICK to sell you some wares, AND an extended service plan, but slow-slow-slow to honor such.
...game me Warrentec's number, and said it was "out of their hands".) So, here it is the 26 of March, and I haven't heard a word from anybody, so I just called the local outfit, All Major Appliances, and they said that "the part hadn't come-in yet", and that they promise they'll call me back today.
The issue is Warrentec, and their nu-believeable #$%$ service. They are quick to take your money, but if something goes wrong, lo-and-behold, they are going to assure you that you'll feel as if "you've personally done something wrong" to deserve #$%$-poor service, and what ever you do, don't try to call them and complain, b/c they will just tell you to "not call them, but call the local appliance outfit they set-you-up-with in the first place, but and yet, they have no control to do anything beyond what Warrentec will give them parts or "approval" to do. This is way beyond ridiculous and now it's a complaint to corporate HH-Greg, Warrentec and the Better Business Bureau. If you ever buy and extended warranty plan, ask "WHO IS IT FROM" and if they say "WARRENTEC", run-away from such an offer as fast as you can! Un-believable! A scam and fraud at this point!
Our newer Whirlpool 2011 refrigerator's compressor went-out; I had purchased an "extended warranty" plan, and little did I know how "fraudulent" this "Warrentec company" is. This happened on the 4th of March, so I call the next day, and lo-and-behold, they are "closed" due to snow-and-ice. They happen to be located in Dallas, TX, and a bit of snow-ice, causes them to close until Saturday the 7th of March. Ok, ok, I'm patient, and can understand. Well, they hook-me-up with a local appliance repair outfit, called All Major Appliances here in Memphis, TN, but they don't have an opening until Wed. the 11th. I was just guessing it was the compressor, b/c I could hear the fan slowly going-out, and I though, maybe it will be something else, less "involved". At any rate, we can live without our ref for a week-or-so, so I say, and they are coming Wed., so all should be well! Right?!? Come Wed., a surly guy in an un-marked pick-up, wants to come-in my house with rainy-dirty shoes-on, and I tell him we don't allow "shoes-in-the-house", and I offer him some bags to put-over his shoes. He then goes out to his truck, and grabs some "shoe-covers" and come-in and checks-out our ref., confirming that it is indeed the compressor, and it may take 5-7 days to order one. Why, I ask astonished? There are bound to be plenty in Memphis, or even at his company's shop? He says they have to order them from Texas, from Warrentec, and "that can take a while"; Well, another week goes-by, and then I'm getting a bit frustrated, so I found-out who to call at this company in Texas, and I get some lady who "thinks I'm crazy for calling directly" and tries to down-play that I'm upset that it is taking some two-weeks now. Then she tells me that they have to "approve this order first" and "if" it's "approved", they have to ship it, and they don't ship over-night.
Then she tells me to not call them again, to call the local service contractor (which I did earlier in the day, and they gave..
Gold is up a significant amount at $19.4 dollars or 1.6%, and DUST, the 3x leveraged bear ETF is up while NUGT, the x3 bull ETF is down. Most miners are down, or up inconsequentially!
Yet I promise you, if Gold were down 1.6%, the miners would be massacred and NUGT would become dust, and DUST would be dancing oh-so-much-higher. All's well and fair in the Markets, yeah right!
However, I believe gold does indeed to show more strength than a nice two-day run, from plumbing some recent lows. We need a quick run to $1,200, and maybe some of the huge hedge-fund shorts will realize that gold might be for real!
PS: April Gold now up 1.74% as I write this post!
I like Janet Yellen, find her honest, and doing the best job she possibly can under the circumstances; But, where we went-wrong and the rub I have, is the "over-stimulus of the Economy with QE-2,3, and 4". We needed to have just a little pain to help us really get stronger, but instead, we opted for 0%-rate and $4.5-trillion pumped-in, inflating the Uber-rich with huge, record-setting gains, while giving the Fed the power to "rule our Markets". Essentially, what we have is "crony Capitalism, backstopped by the Fed".---very dangerous, b/c pricing has become more a function of the Fed (these last past x6-years) and less-and-less a function of the free Market. In fact, every time the Fed speaks, it moves our Markets hundreds-of-points along with cementing this charade of Fed-driven policy being the main reason for Market movement well into the future. The danger is compounded, b/c we've exported this strategy the world-over, and it largely experimental in its long-term effect(s). Have we really lost such sight, that we've forgotten that the free Market will price assets accordingly and appropriately, sometimes over or under-shooting, but baseline, inline. What we have now is "theater" and I can't understand how people take our current record-high Market seriously, while not realizing the danger posed.
Yeah, but don't be surprise to see them "test the Markets", dropping the "patient language", but never moving to raise rates, even marginally, at the next conf.
I have a hard time seeing them not drop the language, when nearly ever metric they use to support the Market, has been met.
Still, I see deflation (almost the World-over), NOT inflation. If you are buying gold for "inflation expectations", then you are in the wrong trade. We need normalized interest-rates first, for us to have inflation, and we are far from that. All imo.
Also, why do I hold gold? Just b/c I still don't buy the Fed-propaganda and the idea that the Market can sustain the gains of the last x6-years, without massive Fed support. I think people don't have a clue just how "jacked-up on Fed asset-inflation we really are", and instead, have bought-into this notion that "now that the Fed might back-away, we can return to a 'normal market-driven environment AND keep the bubble stock-market gains of the last x6 years." In my mind, that's one of the grandest fairy tales I've been told since I was x6-years old! The real world has real consequences, no matter how often, how much, and how vehemently you say otherwise, which is: $18-trillion is a lot of debt to service if interest rates EVER rise, the Chinese are un-loading US-treasuries and stock-piling gold far above their official figures, the Fed's balance-sheet stands at some $4.5-trillion, and global growth is contracting precipitously, while the Central Banks of the world attempt to "inject growth into the equation with quantitative easing". If life were that easy, if the economy were that easy to fix, such that anytime you get contraction, dis-inflation and the like, then all you ever had to do was have the Fed print money, then we never would have a recession.". This isn't real, and neither is Fed-driven economics. Sooner or later the Market must decide pricing, and when it does, it probably won't be pretty!
Had an article just-out on the DJ-news wire, talking about meetings this week with ratings agencies, and "possible debt downgrade at PBR". I was under the impression Moody's had already cut to junk much of PBR debt and the other agencies had already cut to the lowest ratings.
Question: How much lower can PBR be cut?
There's really no direct comparison of "Enron to PBR", other than executives from both companies engaged in fraud. Enron was nearly all "paper", and the massive fraud was "accounting-trader tricks of massive proportion". PBR on the other hand, has "massive hard assets", some massively valuable hard assets, flowing, locked-in-the-ground, and very real. This isn't to say, big fraud didn't happen, only that with PBR, it wasn't "traders locked in a room, creating voodoo magic asset formations". In fact, PBR has some of the richest oil deposits in the world. Big-big difference.
How did they lose $100-million off their balance-sheet last quarter? When I had looked early into the previous quarter, they had about $200+million COH, now $100-million! That's scarey when you can drop that much cash down the hole that fast, AND gold below their profit level.
I have more to say, and some positives, but I want to hear first about the "missing $100-million", and I will listen to the last C.C., but can someone tell me when they plan to have Kusasalethu back-on-line? And is that why they lost $100-million?
"On a reported basis, Harmony Gold posted net loss of $79 million or 18 cents per share in the second quarter as against net loss of $10 million or 2 cents per share in the prior-year quarter."....?
It wouldn't take one-more-quarter like this past one to do big damage to the balance-sheet!
Thoughts, concerns, comments? I'll post my "positives" with this company, as soon as I understand the "disaster" of the last quarter! Tks...
Either they announce a buy-out ASAP, and they'd better already have everything agreed-to, or this goes down to $5.00 and becomes an absolute salvage sale. What other alternative is there? Is the business booming such that it will rebound with strong growth and sales, especially when $USD is King, and foreign currency is in the toilet?
I hate to say it, but imo, this Co. has -1-way out! And they are a couple of years late at that!
Thanks for your reply; I'm playing a small position, and feel a bit as if I'm "gambling". Yet, reason tells me, minus default of some sort, the damage has been done. I can understand the delay of the write-down (I hear such would have triggered a default) and that they needed time, plus it's understandable that they can't give an exact figure, b/c it's a "supplier" problem, and they cooked-the-books, so it will take time to come-up with an "audited report" on that; Yeah, not surprised either about the dividend delay-cut-suspension. The question now is, can this entity survive? I have a hard time believing the Gov. wont step-up to back-stop things here. But yes, there are more favorable plays, except for the valuation level on this, barring a default or more "un-coverings" this thing is valued at fire-sale already, imo. GLTA!
Anyone else worried about potential credit default to bond-holders? From Barron's today:
"Fourth quarter audited financial statements, due by the end of April under bond covenants, or contractual obligations to bond-holders, could be delayed until June or later, Chief Financial Officer Almir Barbassa told reporters.
Such a delay would require negotiations with creditors, he added. Without such negotiations lenders could declare Petrobras in default, a move that could force the early payment on as much as $54 billion of bonds."
In my mind, that's the main risk with this stock. The other will take-care-of-itself. The recent results (though unaudited) are actually pretty good. I personally think this "scandal" will be gotten-over OK, but I don't feel comfortable about a "credit-default". In my mind, that's a real possibility...the Co. is saying June for audited results, yet such is due in April, and any delay would require the consent of bondholders. Do you think the bond-holder would push default over renegotiating? A credit-default would result in PBR getting decimated from this level, and could push them to insolvency, imo. What are other investor's thoughts? Tks....
I think the issue with me was trying to download from the wrong site. Typing in "Mega nz", brings up a host of "other sites, many malicious". You might have been more specific about where to download this file-PDF, instead of just generally saying to type-in "Mega nz" into Google's search-box.
So, is the correct way to see your file from "Seeking Alpha or Twitter"?
Trojan Virus trying such; "Bunk", beware other users. Don't know whether your intent is malicious, but when Googling "Mega nz and putting-in that code you suggest in Megafiles.me", when one downloads, one is inviting a nasty Trojan virus and all kind of other malicious software.
Be warned would-be down-loaders!
Tks for calculating and sharing; I hate downloading from sites un-known. Even with your bearish assumptions, what do you see for unit-price going into 2015? Most bullish unit prices?
Can you give us a break-down of your numbers, without having to "download"? Tks...