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Deckers Outdoor Corp. Message Board

american_chariot 26 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 12, 2014 1:23 PM Member since: Apr 20, 2004
  • Reply to


    by patientd1 Dec 12, 2014 1:09 PM
    american_chariot american_chariot Dec 12, 2014 1:23 PM Flag

    There will have to be, imo, b/c the Saudis didn't do what they did for the impact of "just now, today and the last month here"; They went for "all the chips on the table, North American kill" option. Thus, this is a huge impact on the oil markets, and could even come-back to bite them, while they struggle to balance their own budget with oil so low. Yeah, we all like cheap oil at the pump, as US-consumers, but the potential for the "price war in oil" to wreck utter havoc, from US-shale plays, to nation-states such as Venezuela, Russia and others, the implications of "what's going-on" are far-reaching. Even the US-Corporate Debt Market is big-time subject to the demise of crude prices. At prices below $50, you'll see things really start to crumble, and this downward spiral could take oil to it's support chart-base, which I won't mention that that is, but suffice to say, that THE ONLY WAY many of these US oil-gas plays will survive at all, is if they combine! The Saudis are out to bankrupt US plays, period, and they have the means to wage an extended price war. My feeling is, once things REALLY GET OUT OF WHACK, they'll step-in with production cuts, wagering that they risk more far-ranging economic decay from world economies, than their objective of knocking-off-line the big-new US shale plays!

    All imo, but I see much lower oil prices possible, if the Saudis don't intervene! GLTA!

  • May 2, 2011 EROC = $12.59, and the price has been going down every since. Even with oil at $100, yet the price comes-down. How do other here explain it? July 12, '07 = $27 dollars, now it's almost $2.00!

    I like the fundamentals here, and the ever increasing yield as the price drops, but still, you've got to factor-in the big PPS-drop versus the increase in yield.

    Idea, thoughts....?

    July 13, 2009 = $2.65 low, then spent the April 25th 2011 high of $13! I'd say a great double-bottom formed from '09-'til now, but it has broken too far below that July 13th '09 low now.

    I'm new to this space/MLP structure, so forgive my ignorance.

  • Reply to

    Capitulation Day?

    by eyenoahsecret Dec 9, 2014 3:01 AM
    american_chariot american_chariot Dec 11, 2014 11:25 AM Flag

    Thanks EVERY-ONE for your thoughtful replies....I'll be researching each-and-every suggestion offered. Good info. is seldom gleaned from a Yahoo message board, so here's to the extraordinary---another good sign about this particular Co. in gleaning useful message-board info b/c you don't have the "trolls-and-haters" that obscure decent info gathering. As immature as it is, I shy away from stocks where there's a constant juvenile haranguing and name-calling/dissing and crudeness, etc. etc., et al My experience has been, "the better the stock/Co., the better the make-up of message-board followers". I've made my best bets, on some of the more non-colorful boards, with INVESTORS instead of paid trolls working for a dime.

    At some point, I'd like to ask: Investors that aren't fully vested here, where do you see your self "going-all-in"? The price-of-oil-talk is taking some strange turns, with some now calling $60 a new norm for years to come? Personally, I think oil is in a free-fall and once it REALLY finds it bottom, you're going to see some big-bi upside in these plays.

    GLTUA! eom!

  • Reply to

    Capitulation Day?

    by eyenoahsecret Dec 9, 2014 3:01 AM
    american_chariot american_chariot Dec 10, 2014 11:16 AM Flag

    Imo, I'm waiting too, scanning many oil-and-gas plays, trying to find the "best ones" at the "best-time", meaning when crude, WTI has hit rock-bottom. I won't venture a price I have in my mind, but suffice to say "we aren't there yet". What attracted me to EROC is the very favorable balance-sheet. Looking at so many other "oil-and-gas plays", even though many with poor balance-sheet (high debt with little cash-on-hand) will survive, many won't if crude goes as low as many are saying is possible. This said, I wonder if others here, would venture to offer-up their picks in this space? Where there is great hardship in the Market, there is great opportunity as well. If we play-our-cards right here, there is a lot of money to be made. I'll love to trade ideas, but my main play that I'm eyeing, is this one, EROC. They have a much cash-on-hand as they do debt, and I like they are a conservative MLP. Any other suggestions that offer great returns without killer (debt-to-cash-on-hand) risk? I like OAS for the "wild-cowboy potential of possible gains" once WTI hits a bottom, but it's a lot more risky imo, than this security. Even more risk with possible gain is NADL, but that's coupled with Russia's ability to pump-off-shore and sell, so that's even more a a risk their balance-sheet is scarey, and I heard that their parent could use it as a "tool", to weather this storm, and thus it could be a b/k play if things get really-really bad! Thoughts anyone?

    PS: I'm not looking for "wild-cats" that could bounce hugely IF they survive. Give me solid, beat'in-down winners that will come-back big, when oil finds its footing! GLTUA! eom!

  • Reply to


    by dinepat203 Nov 19, 2014 11:20 AM
    american_chariot american_chariot Nov 19, 2014 11:47 AM Flag

    Could you post a reference to that recent poll's vote today? Tks...have been waiting for "the results" of the poll today, but couldn't find any internet reference to it!

  • Reply to


    by tikas2709 Nov 18, 2014 4:23 PM
    american_chariot american_chariot Nov 18, 2014 5:17 PM Flag

    I w#$%$nted to invest in some c#$%$ll options here, but even with this impressive percent#$%$ge g#$%$in, it's kind-of lousy. Problem #$%$s I see it, is you#$%$ h#$%$ve to h#$%$ve convincing $1,300 POG for this to re#$%$lly fly. If this is #$%$ short-cover r#$%$lly, then th#$%$t could be the re#$%$son for the slow-go here. There #$%$re so m#$%$ny doubter here, #$%$nd #$%$lthough I've been #$%$ long-term gold bull, even I got sh#$%$ken-out of th#$%$t l#$%$st thr#$%$shing, simply from looking #$%$t the long-term historic#$%$l POG ch#$%$rts, th#$%$t point to $1,100, $1,000, #$%$nd worst c#$%$se $700. But the kicker is th#$%$t the POG of Gold is bouncing be#$%$utifully off the '06, '09 bottoms, #$%$nd m#$%$ny, MANY of the miners #$%$re showing impressive #$%$nd huge volume off multi-month/ye#$%$r double-bottom lows. I'll tell you FEAR is your worst enemy, #$%$nd I'm kicking myself into the dirt for selling too soon here, for fe#$%$r of bre#$%$king-below into never-never l#$%$nd:$700-1,100! (Not this stock/option but #$%$nother gold pl#$%$y I'm been eng#$%$ged#$%$ Here, if I were buying str#$%$ight-up sh#$%$res, I wouldn't h#$%$ve so much fe#$%$r, but the c#$%$ll options on this thing m#$%$ke me nervous b#$%$ there's h#$%$rdly ANY ACTION/volume! You're #$%$lmost b#$%$sic#$%$lly buying them for being deep in the money ne#$%$r expir#$%$tion.

  • Reply to

    Breath-taking manipulation!

    by american_chariot Nov 12, 2014 11:36 AM
    american_chariot american_chariot Nov 12, 2014 12:26 PM Flag

    I would if I thought gold was undervalued, but the stock market's Fed-induced run could end soon enough, then what? Gold at $1,400, yeah, great short, but there's too much "funny-business" going-on, to feel comfortable shorting here at this level. If they really intend/can get it to $700, then yeah, great short, but we're not too, too far off Goldman's $1050, and that might be the best they can do, before, eventually, the Market runs-out of QE-run steam. It weird though, b/c with the 10-year down stuck around 2.35, and oil looking like $75 for sure, there seems to be a "deflationary bias", and that doesn't bode well for gold, unless it becomes a headline issue.

    Still, can you imagine holding big short-gold positions if Switzerland approve their gold-standard referendum?

  • Reply to


    by bejupete Nov 12, 2014 11:11 AM
    american_chariot american_chariot Nov 12, 2014 11:48 AM Flag

    You'd like to thing so, but as you've "just witnessed this morning", there is big-big money, major Goldman/JP-Morgan naked-paper shorting going-on. It's Geo-political in nature too. We want the strongest dollar possible, to derail Russia, and now that we've handed-off the QE baton to Japan and Europe, the big-boys want to diminish gold to next to nothing, before the go long and pick-up people's discarded shares.

    Ask your self this, what happened today around 10:am, once the Yahoo-Finance headline went-up, and the short-machines gained full power, and all heck broke lose, and we've back to "$700 gold talk again"! In the blink of an eye! The only, ONLY thing that can save gold now, imo, is the Swiss gold standard vote on the 30th of this month! Otherwise, we are up against principalities and powers, a long gold position doesn't have a chance against! All imo!

  • american_chariot by american_chariot Nov 12, 2014 11:36 AM Flag

    Notice how the $700 Yahoo-Finance Depression Headline went-up right when Goldman/J.P. Morgan turned-on their short-machines! This is too funny! And you thought the markets were fair-and-even! The more I see of this game, the more I want to NOT PARTICIPATE!

  • american_chariot american_chariot Nov 11, 2014 6:03 PM Flag

    Larry 11 minutes ago

    Wow, this is about the 5th anti-gold article on Yahoo since Sunday. Are they trying to scare the Swiss from voting for the gold referendum on the 30th or what? With such a small percentage of the US population even owning a single ounce of gold, they sure spend a lot of time reporting on the speculation that gold will supposedly go down in price. If this isn't an agenda they are trying to push then what is?

  • Ever wonder why Goldman's $1050 call seems so prescient of late? Ever wonder why the "financial press" feels so compelled to tell you, nearly every-day (looks at today's Yahoo Home Page, and see this: "With dollar on a tear, gold and silver rout far from over" - Reuters poll

    Ever wonder why these articles are repeated, ad nauseum, every-single day, bar none! In fact, why does Gold seem to get so much press, if it's so "non-relevant" for today's "dollar action", Fed-policy, and other affective issues! One would think it would just "die into oblivion" and return to it's sub-$800 place! But for some reason (explained below), you'll see why there is this huge concerted effort to highlight and diminish gold's value, almost in some Machiavellian, sinister zeal to reassure folks that King Dollar is indeed king!


  • Reply to

    chap 11 coming soon

    by notasap Nov 5, 2014 3:58 PM
    american_chariot american_chariot Nov 5, 2014 4:12 PM Flag

    chap 7?

  • american_chariot by american_chariot Nov 5, 2014 3:56 PM Flag

    8-ball! Bada-bing!

  • Reply to

    Gold/xau ratio +50% in 2 months

    by simulpaolo68 Nov 5, 2014 3:17 PM
    american_chariot american_chariot Nov 5, 2014 3:41 PM Flag

    Thank Gold-i-man, aka Goldman-Sachs! They will get their $1050 gold, b/c that's where that's the level at which they set their machines!

  • Reply to

    IAG is free

    by johndotfoster Oct 30, 2014 3:33 PM
    american_chariot american_chariot Oct 30, 2014 3:48 PM Flag

    It's not "emotion" so much as GS's black-boxes, program-trading and $1050 call eoy! IMO!

  • Reply to

    TO MY LEMMING FRIEND american_chariot

    by mjmjam500 Oct 23, 2014 11:30 AM
    american_chariot american_chariot Oct 23, 2014 12:04 PM Flag

    A touch bit upset, no! If you can't be HAPPY now, you'll have a hard time being HAPPY later!

    Au Revoir mi amor!

  • Reply to

    TO MY LEMMING FRIEND american_chariot

    by mjmjam500 Oct 23, 2014 11:30 AM
    american_chariot american_chariot Oct 23, 2014 12:02 PM Flag

    Come to Papa!

  • american_chariot american_chariot Oct 23, 2014 11:14 AM Flag

    Damn, those G/S black-boxes are smok'in hot! But still not where I want it! LOWER PLEASE, while the economy is still HOT-HOT-HOT!

    ps: How do you take $2,2730 gold and take it to $1050 in roughly two months? Watch what can be done when the machines are "so finely tuned"!

  • american_chariot american_chariot Oct 23, 2014 11:09 AM Flag

    The problem as I see it right now, is that stocks aren't high enough, and gold's not low enough! So, bash-it-down, and talk-it-up! Economy is shinier and brighter than I've ever seen it in my life! Why would anyone want to one a worthless yellow metal under these boom-times with no inflation? Never mind Chine just infused their banks with $700-billion cash injection to keep things afloat, Europe's teetering on Recession, Vladamir is moving his rooks fast across the board, the real work-force participation rate is dismal here in Boom-town USA, dollar stores abound, people are working harder-and-harder for less-and-less, unless you got injected by Bernanke-Paulson-and Co. Millenials are swimming in debt up-to-their-ears, and actually paying for internships! Total US-debt is rock'in near $18-billion! But don't worry about the facts! We've got Baba and Facebook providing tons of jobs to workers the world over!

    I predict this vibrant, booming economy will last until October 28th, 2014, that's when Yellen must deliver the news that, "sorry boys, we can't backstop you like before", the myth of $15-billion-more-a-month was just a litmus test to gauge the Markets. Things are too good for us to increase our balance-sheet beyond the $4-trillion we've already inflated your assets. But we probably won't raise rates until 2016! Let's see how "BOOMING" the Markets take that news!

  • Please keep sinking-sinking-and-sinking! Please oh please...I want CHEAP...not there yet, but waiting patiently! Do your job short-trolls PLEASE! Let's have a chorus of "lemmings, told-you-so's and other tasty refrains! I'm waiting!

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