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Deckers Outdoor Corp. Message Board

american_chariot 70 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 1, 2015 1:02 PM Member since: Apr 20, 2004
  • american_chariot american_chariot Aug 27, 2015 6:33 PM Flag

    I was wondering why the strength in this sector today, and I was coming here to hopefully find an answer; Even with the Comex POG for Dec. delivery down today, yet the miners rallied. I know the FCX Ichan stake had a spill-over effect for the gold-miners, and seeing the coal-miners roar last few days, I guess we could expect the same? Hoping!

    PS: Funny to see the shorts running scared at the close; If you don't think the Markets are a "casino controlled by large pools of capital, then you don't know the Markets".

  • american_chariot american_chariot Aug 27, 2015 4:51 PM Flag

    Well said stoll62, you and me both; In fact, I had been waiting for "these time" (Fed-related break-down, even they are saying it's all about China!) holding some gold-options, for a couple of years now; We get them, and guess what, gold does even more poorly than the sinking paper stocks. It's beyond's non-sensical. I'm holding-out to see if we get a "seasonal bump" this year; Usually happens in Sept, and can run until March, like last-year. But in these markets of extreme volatility and upside-down logic, who knows. If I was wealthy, I sure would be stock-piling the bullion, in measure, as low as they want to take it.

    Can anyone explain today's logic, of the miners catching such a big bid, even when the paper-Comex was down? Heck, look at the coal miners, and that can give one hope here. But then again, look what it has taken for them to catch a big---lots of bankruptcies, and penny-stock prices. GLTY!

    PS: I'd look to for a contrarian play for gold too, if the Fed raises rates. Many say "the dollar soars", and gold would be wiped, but I think the opposite happens. If the Fed doesn't raise rates this year, I say we get a bounce, but until Fed policy is actually promulgated, the POG will swing, imo.

  • american_chariot by american_chariot Aug 26, 2015 3:35 PM Flag

    Ouch! Glad I didn't follow that whale, and he's got some $300-milliion in this thing, at what, $110? Damn...
    you would think he'd "know what he's doing", but after hearing him rant against the Fed and them being late to raise", I figured he'd gotten-in over his head, with thinking he could personally FIGHT THE FED. He even spoke of fearing "civil un-rest", but with the Fed at our sails, what's there to fear? Dow down 1k points, and gold gets slammed just the same; Dow up +500 points, gold gets slammed just the same. I'm coming to believe that "gold is dead". If it can't rally on the back of the carnage in the Markets we've seen this last past two weeks, the ONLY WAY it would roar higher, is if there's a complete abject major-currency failure, imo.

    GLTA! eom!

    PS: Really not what I've wanted to say, but I have always talked about "the Fed" and how they are culpable for damaging our Markets, but then when the S*** hit the fan, and gold acts like wet-dung, I can't be a cheer-leader any more; Yeah, maybe "for insurance" if there's a 1929-style closing-of-the-doors, but barring that, I'm seeing sub-$1k, to my original $950 POG, and then re-assess from there. Apparently everything is "rigged in the Markets", pure and simple!

  • american_chariot american_chariot Aug 26, 2015 3:25 PM Flag

    Yeah, no way we get a rate-raise in Sept....Dudley said as much today at Jacksonhole, WO The 1% want to ride this Central-bank gravy train as long as they can, and now that they've hijacked the American Consumer, and got them to believe that the CB has to be "accommodative" in order to help them (i.e. the Consumer), they've got the perfect gig, a Central-bank rigged stock-market, that keeps going-and-going-and-going-and-going, UNTIL you actually raise rates, or you push the idea hard like they did this past month! No rate-raise for now, and we can get-back to pushing paper, up-up-up-and-away!

  • Reply to

    Congratulations GFI and Nick....

    by american_chariot Aug 21, 2015 10:59 AM
    american_chariot american_chariot Aug 26, 2015 3:01 PM Flag

    That's true, b/c $5 used to be cheap; Now, I'd say $2 is cheap. Still, the idea they were able to net a profit in last quarter's environment, is impressive to me; But the way gold is trading now, and seeing how it totally didn't react to the huge stock-paper slump, has me very leery. I would not advise any one to buy gold, or this stock, here right now. Rather, if gold can't hold 1080, that tells me it's going sub-$1k, and if the GFI is $2.76 at $1125 pog, it will probably be under $1-buck at lower than $1k pog.

    PS: I wish I would have sold on that last pop; With all the Market turmoil and nearing Fall buying season for gold, I figured I'd "wait" to cut my losses. I was able to sell a small lot of over-priced options I bought, but I wouldn't sell for a -40% haircut, based on the rationale presented above; But I sure "wish I did"! GLTA!

  • american_chariot american_chariot Aug 26, 2015 2:43 PM Flag

    Are you predicting WTI to $20 too, or are you just sour gold?

  • Reply to

    1/26/15: JPM issues a buy on HMY @ $2.88

    by gldtrdr Aug 26, 2015 1:11 PM
    american_chariot american_chariot Aug 26, 2015 1:43 PM Flag


  • Reply to

    Rick santelli is going crazy

    by dumpplatinum Aug 24, 2015 11:48 AM
    american_chariot american_chariot Aug 24, 2015 3:02 PM Flag

    Yeah, that's b/c he's one of the few talking heads on CNBC that has shot-straight from the hip ever since the Fed's asset-inflation scheme has sent the dow up to 18k plus (lately Guy Adami, Melissa Lee, and Carter Worth, along with Doug Kass, haven't been shills for the big-boy-Fed-paper-Club, warning investors that all might not be "peaches-and-cream".) IMO, this is a lot more than China's so-called soft-landing. It's more about "funny money and sky's-the-limit Fed-play", and that effects China and emerging Markets. QE needs to be questioned, beyond it's "cure-all properties", and rather, asked how effective is it in "jump-starting true Main-Street economic activity". My contention is that we "gave away the store to the banks and the elites of Wall-Street" and now that the Fed has said "end-of-party mid-Sept", we are starting to see just how over-valued stocks have become. GLTUA! eom!

  • Reply to

    Historic dow sell off

    by dumpplatinum Aug 24, 2015 10:02 AM
    american_chariot american_chariot Aug 24, 2015 11:05 AM Flag

    "Talking heads, pundits, Fed-paper pushers"---they/we---all still don't get-it! People talking of "buying-the-dip", while we let the Uber-1% take our homes, then we give them $4-trillion in "play-money", only to have the Fed say "party's over in 1-month", and then, guess what, big coincidence, Dow starts dropping by historic amounts, for a week-straight, and then some....

    Yeah, there will be a "bounce all-right", but the real question is, "what happens when the Fed really pulls-back from their epic support"? Maybe you can glean a smidgen of an idea, by looking at the indices today!

    As an American, I'm sick of this SCAM. I'd invite others to peruse my past stock post from the last few years, to gain an understanding of "what we're really seeing in the Markets".

    We have in no wise learned our's evident by the bull-refrain of "normal correction in percentage terms" and "buy-the-dip", refrains. It's my contention that we haven't even begun to "normalize" our stock market averages from absurd Fed support of the Uber-1%

    It's gets tiring, talking like this "over-and-over". The Markets are starting to speak for themselves, and you if still "don't have a clue", then I pity your naivete! I will however, continue to "bark" for the "rest of us", the "average Joes", who get effected by the money-games of the Fed and Wall-Street.

    The "free-hand of the Market" has a "leavening mechanism", when left to sort-out "true price discovery and valuation". That's what you are seeing in the Markets today, so it should come as no surprise. What I do find surprising is how so many folks are still "singing the praises of a Fed-induced Market, that got them to believe that a $18k Dow, meant that you and me had never been better in our financial-job-economic life". Imo, this is only the beginning, not a "unique arbitration, long-term buying gift-horse", but rather, a Trojan Horse! Caveat Emptor!

  • Reply to

    Watch for breakout

    by emapsoda Aug 20, 2015 11:08 AM
    american_chariot american_chariot Aug 21, 2015 12:07 PM Flag

    Well said, imo; Their last "earnings" was horrific. There are a lot better beat'in-down miners to play, imo. Even during the last run of POG to $1,300, this issue was a laggard, and didn't make a substantial move until everyone saw every other miner moving big. This Co, needs to do some real house-cleaning YESTERDAY, and it's purely a "spec play" imo. I do own some options in this dog, and I'd love to recoup losses before expiration.

    GLTA and come-on HMY, get-it-together!

  • american_chariot by american_chariot Aug 21, 2015 10:59 AM Flag

    Congratulations on an "outstanding quarter", especially relative to the average pog last quarter. Truly amazing that you were able to net $19-million in such a sour environment; The Street has you way-off priced, and with your earnings and prospects going forward, especially with the stabilization of this pm, you should be double the share-price RIGHT NOW!

    I'm a buyer, and I rate your stock a "strong-buy", for a number of reasons, especially the type of Market we're entering. Kudos and best-of-luck to All!

    PS: One might want to wait for the "gap-fill at $3.05", but it's hard to say when it will hit.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to


    by eddie18rabbit Aug 20, 2015 1:19 PM
    american_chariot american_chariot Aug 20, 2015 1:54 PM Flag

    Don't "act like them" or say such horrible stuff. Reality will reveal itself in good time.

  • american_chariot american_chariot Aug 18, 2015 1:20 PM Flag

    I actually agree with you, although I am a holder of some gold "options". Your point is not to be over-looked, and I hope/pray that any mines up-and-running, are in as good environmental stewardship as possible in such an industry.

    It's not as if we couldn't "have some cake and eat it too", i.e. prohibit new mine development, and enact strict regulations on those producing. Ah, but that might cause the price to soar---my objective! But, "point taken", it is a very environmentally taxing endeavor---mining!

  • Reply to

    Gold and GG off to the races

    by cornoit Aug 10, 2015 11:47 AM
    american_chariot american_chariot Aug 10, 2015 6:04 PM Flag

    Appreciate the encouragement! Interesting to hear even Gartman talking about the looks of a "technical reversal"; Said he'd be a buyer if it "holds above $1,100 in one month, in US-denominated terms". 'Tis the season too, or getting near to the traditional Sept. bump. I'm just looking to recover losses before I get even remotely giddy! Again,...we'll see!

  • Reply to

    Gold and GG off to the races

    by cornoit Aug 10, 2015 11:47 AM
    american_chariot american_chariot Aug 10, 2015 12:39 PM Flag

    I've been so "jaded and dragged-through-the-mud", that I find it hard to believe...not holding my breath, and 'we'll see". GLTA!

    PS: The one thing I do wish, that there wasn't such extreme negativism and nihilism with the gold trade. I've rarely encountered a more vile, hate-filled sector to invest than in the gold sphere; So much so, I'll just be glad when this is all over. How gold ever got to be so dissed, so tarnished, so "sinister" is beyond me; And even as it has fallen from $1,800, then $1,700, then $1,600, then $1,500, then $1,400, then $1,300, then $1,200, and finally below $1,100, and at this level, I've never seen more "bearish-and-brutish calling for $350 gold and the worthlessness of this precious metal". You'd think such nay-saying would be called-for at every other price-point north of where we are, not some 80% below its high back in Sept of 2011 when it was $1,900 In fact, the lower it has fallen, the more vile and repressed is it prediction for utter collapse. I can't understand such non-sense. Yes, calls for a huge fall at $1,900, but at $1,100, seems immature, backward-thinking and as if a "horde-and-crowd of animals is making brutish bets".

    I will say, the industry is largely to blame for its malaise, for if you can only make money only at $1,300 POG, then it's kind-of a crap industry in need of washing-out. I'd say, with most of the easy-gold already mined for the pickings, and with massive Central Bank money printing, that $1k pog, and these companies should be able to make good $$$ The only company I know with this philosophy is GOLD, and they are even shooting for a $800 environment. Good for them!

    It has been a learning process for me, and my advice would be to "never bet on big downfall for your investment to make good"; Such may or may not happen. Rather, ask yourself rationally, with your investment in gold, what's a decent, non-emotional POG-pricing for my Co. to really be able to make good $$$ It needs to be $1-1.2k

  • Reply to

    10 am sell off

    by timothymohr Aug 7, 2015 10:11 AM
    american_chariot american_chariot Aug 7, 2015 11:20 AM Flag

    Too comically controlled; Of course, like you said, it's 10:am, time to turn-on the naked-short-machines! All I can say is "wait until they can't hold-up the charade of the S&P and Dow"...what will one want to buy if we see a repeat of 2008/9 deflation! I doubt it'll be USD and corporate paper people are clamoring for....Yes, the Comex if a puppet of the Central Bank, but at the same time, if the Fed is set to raise-rates, and step-back from their huge asset-inflation scheme, beloved "paper" will become more what it should be worth, and folks from all walks of life will question "what's truly worth owing". All imo!

  • Reply to

    Hello, anybody in there?

    by jmdpampa Jul 27, 2015 1:12 PM
    american_chariot american_chariot Jul 29, 2015 2:02 PM Flag

    If you would have said that at $1,900, 1,700, 1,500, 1,300, yeah, I can hear you. But now every one and his brother comes-out the wood work, screaming how low gold is going, when it's $1,090-ish, with a chart that looks like it could possibly hit $950, which I wish it would ASAP, instead of hanging-around this level; Unless it's headed to $500, I'd say they are real late to the "short-gold party", and are rather parroting the other shorters, pundits and USD believers--and their desire, wish and bet, that gold's headed "so much lower". I say it's headed lower too, btw, but when I look at a long-term chart, I see $950 for strong support!

  • Reply to


    by tough_guy_dick_cheney Jul 27, 2015 2:19 PM
    american_chariot american_chariot Jul 27, 2015 3:28 PM Flag

    I know...that's why I say, the new currency of the world, the TRUE STORE-HOUSE OF VALUE are USD denominated paper and big-coins. They/it has "true substantive value", not some yellow-honky metal that Native Americans were massacred for, or that gave King Soloman un-told biblical riches.

    It's all about Father Fed now, and his ability to make the US-Markets strong via QUANTITATIVE EASING! We aren't subject to -10% corrections any more, thanks to Father Fed. Still, our economy is so strong that we don't have to charge interest anymore. That's a thing of that past, an old-time-usury notion.

    Nowadays, it's about $4-trillion Father Fed support, 0% for infinity and rich US-stock market paper. Thank-you Father Fed and for enlightening us to the "new and real store-house of value"! Time to buy some more DUST!

  • Reply to

    $2.50 Today or Tomorrow

    by zachperonio Jul 27, 2015 1:31 PM
    american_chariot american_chariot Jul 27, 2015 3:19 PM Flag

    No, you are right, the millennials have been taught by Father Fed, that USD "is the only salvation". Never mind that the Fed created $4-trillion to buy mortgages and bonds, and lets US-Banks park their money there to gain interest. We have been taught in the benevolence of the Great Fed, that has given us a stock market that is no longer subject to -10% normal corrections, and can now run near fautless with much less tendency to "go down". We've been taught that the whole "hard money commodity complex is bunk", and such things as "digital dollars hold more value". Yeah, we think of WW-II Veterans as "hold fogies", that use to save money in their mattresses, still remembering the Great Depression. What's that? But, we are a much smarter, younger lot, that knows no true sacrifice, b/c Father Fed is there, has been there and will be there.

    Simply put, "war and gold are old-fashioned notions". We have Facebook, Twitter and Bit-coins. Never mind 8-billion people and growing, a 1% that controls more wealth than in the history of the world, and a climate that is reducing the quality of living beyond anything enjoyable and sustaining. We have Father Fed! Buy USD, b/c it's the ONLY STOREHOUSE OF REAL VALUE! Thank-you Father FED!

  • american_chariot american_chariot Jul 27, 2015 2:37 PM Flag

    It's not a political "Dem v. Rep." issues. It's a broken Capitalist system. You had it right, about Keynesian debt-wrong-doing, but you left-out "Capitalist Cronyism", bought-and-paid for lobbyist, manipulation of the Markets via the Fed and other institutions world-wide, massive Quantitative Easing Programs worldwide, the enrichment of the top 1% to un-heard-of levels never before seen in the history of the world. This is so not a "Republican v. Democrat", "Conservative v. Liberal" problem.

59.01+0.93(+1.60%)Oct 2 4:01 PMEDT