I think it's mostly summed up in the sec filings PV10, distributions, terms of trust, etc. You can also reference the Sandridge website for more info in general about oil production, etc. I'd be more concerned with the type curve rather than the life of the trust - I think it may have shifted to the left.
Sometimes people will ask me a question to which I do not have a good answer. In that case I just say I don't know. And that's just one of the ways I differentiate myself from creatures like Jim Cramer.
No it's a winning battle. As analyst coverage dropped off for trusts reports at SA increased. You should believe only your own research. I'll give you a hint. There is a certain frequent poster who has shown a similar social pattern to a SA author who was correctly bearish on SDR and then falsely bullish (the analysis was poor during both sentiments - I doubt the individual(s) could have exceeded in a college level case coarse). Neither the SA author or common poster has ever referenced any oil knowledge or seeking of such information from the likes of an oil co. exec., geologist, etc. But there are frequent quotes from SEC filings - available to all - and subject to their interpretations/sentiments.
If you think the bulls have more money than you now might be a good time to cover short positions.
You could be right and still be wrong. Will the cost of technological advances in oil/gas extraction justify an increasing end value? Maybe. Maybe not. What should now be apparent is the quality of operator and the wells representing the royalties.
The shares go ex-distribution during your option period so you would have to exercise in time to receive the distribution. The risk is the units could adjust in value by the amount of the distribution. Also, should the distribution (and/or production numbers) disappoint the units could fall further. On the other hand it's possible the trust is oversold as a result of tax selling and experiences a rebound early next year - given theses few factors and the trust's performance it's a roll of the dice.
Most (if not all) recently created trusts are essentially a melting ice cube. SDR's reserves and production should drop off quickly and then slowly trickle for years to the end. At some point (if not now) market prices for the units should be reflective of this fact - a quick review of WHX should provide a sufficient illustration. I think there is potential for a trade here but I don't consider this trust a good long term hold.
I prefer income investments that can potentially grow like mlp's (oil, pipelines, etc.) or reits invested in mortgage servicing rights. Liz is correct in saying most options expire worthless. However in the money calls hold up better than out of the money calls. For me it's been more profitable writing calls vs. buying them.
I'll be happy with 10 cents, a decent mention of New Media, and ready for the market to realize this is soon to become a healthcare reit with drop down potential from the sponsor.
I think you're starting to answer your own questions - which is good. Whether you receive a decent return after depletion will depend on how much you pay for your trust shares and how the wells in trust perform. You may have wanted a definitive answer but it would be best for you to research and come up with your own. For those not wanting to do their own work there have been articles on Seeking Alpha about the issue but since they are free you should be suspicious of their quality. I was in and out of trusts last winter and tried to do as much research as possible - I encourage you to do the same. At one point I came to believe SD was going to put lift pumps on its wells but not the wells of the trusts. Want to take a guess how many comments came from my posted conclusion (including those individuals posting almost daily here)? PVR's, well operator, type curves, terms of the trust, well pressure, etc. are all things that can matter in determining the worthiness of a trust as an investment. Seasonality may be at hand with trusts (tax selling) and in theory should occur yearly. You might want to check out some MLP's (nslp, memp, bbep).
Where are you buying a stock under $2 on margin? Question No. 2: Who in their right and/or experienced mind shorts a $2 stock?