lots of time left on the s-curve growth phablet market. again we are still in the early adopter 10% phase. so 90% market share is NOW up for grabs before 2017 80% saturation.
...Assuming a 10% market share of a $60 billion market with a 60% gross margin, Bloomberg estimates that Apple could see revenues of up to $3.6 billion with a successful smart watch.
Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty did a similar exercise and came up with incremental revenue to Apple of $10 to $15 billion a year, assuming 20% of Apple's existing customers bought one every two years. See her spreadsheet below.
$199 x 65 million units sold from initial flash holiday hysteria demand = $12.94 billion top line revenue 15q1
$12.94 billion x 60% gross margins = $7.76 billion bottom line earnings 15q1
input into models lads. because its a "done deal".
Bloomberg does the math and says an iWatch would be a better bet for Apple than an iTV
From a patent Apple filed in 2011.
FORTUNE -- Led by Peter Burrows, a veteran tech reporter with more than two decades under his belt, Bloomberg has taken a second crack at the Apple (AAPL) iWatch story that the New York Times and Wall Street Journal broke three weeks ago.
Bloomberg's contribution that first week was a report, sourced by two people "familiar with the company's plans," that Apple had 100 product designers working on a wristwatch-like device that could perform some of the tasks now handled by the iPhone and iPad.
Monday's piece offers an analysis of the smart watch business that makes it look considerably more attractive than the prevailing view on the Internet -- which is that nobody wears a watch anymore except as a fashion statement.
Among the points the Bloomberg story makes:
Watches are a big business. The global watch industry will generate $60 billion in sales in 2013.
Watches are a profitable business. Gross margins on watches are about 60%, right in Apple's comfort zone.
Watches are a more attractive business than TVs. The margin on watches is about four times bigger than for televisions.
Apple is interested in watches. The company has taken out 79 patents with the word "wrist" in them, including one for a device with a flexible screen that's powered by kinetic energy.
Jony Ive is particularly interested. Apple's chief designer owns many high-end models and in the mid-2000s had a team visit Nike and bring home boxes of one of their sports watches.
The timing is right. A 2003 Microsoft-Fossil smart phone partnership fizzled, but customers are more accustomed today to using mobile apps in their everyday lives.
Among the features under consideration, according to one of Bloomberg's sources, is making phone calls, seeing the identity of incoming callers, checking map coordinates, counting steps (with a built-in pedometer) and monitoring health-related
April 8, 2014 8:40 AM EDT
Apple may be targeting shipments of around 65 million units for the iWatch in Q3, ambitious amid the late-year launch.
again i still disagree with you. because it is still better to buy than write ahead of april 23 earnings while they are still on sale. and your strategy of selling put leaps against the common is stupid.
we deal in short term volatility here.
hope this helps
``Eight of the 10 most-owned contracts were bullish, with calls betting on a 9 percent jump to $590 by April 19 having the largest open interest, the data show.``
wow| $590 by april 19? thats a lot from these chicago gangsters.
"And chico, if anything happens to that buy-money, eee pobreci... my boss is gonna stick your heads up your αṧṧεṧ faster than a rabbit gets phucked!" (Omar to Tony & Manny)
likely a $555.00 even print. based on all the voodoo $555.00 even prints over the last two years. so lets see what happens this time.
oakey doeky another $50 billion share buyback on april 23 is now a `done deal`` says the market. so let me input this fresh material news into my fy2015 earnings models and get back to you lads after lunch.
jonesing on that expensive fresh flown in pei lobster with Clarified Butter.
lots of time left on the s-curve growth phablet market. again we are still in the early adopter 10% phase. so 90% market share NOW up for grabs by 2017 saturation.
dude major announcement from `the company`` on this matter after hours april 23rd. hope this helps.
"Consistent with its pattern for the last two years, the Company is on track to complete its regular review and thorough analysis and to announce any changes to the current program by March or April of 2014."
ALERT! apple cboe vix index breaking out over $26 now. so you idgits should have bought last week when all options were ON SALE! what`s wrong with you?
anywho apple volatility is NOW soaring, suggesting we WILL get a $29 move in the common stock on or before april 23rd earnings.
happy earnings everybody.
Apple Bulls Bet New Products Will Bring Stock Revival
By Trista Kelley and Namitha Jagadeesh April 03, 2014
Options on the iPhone maker haven’t been this cheap in more than two years relative to the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The stock lost 4.3 percent last quarter, including an 11 percent retreat in January, while the exchange-traded fund advanced 1.7 percent between January and March for a fifth straight gain.
Investors are betting a range of new products this year will sustain a sales boom and help keep the stock afloat, said Andy Perkins, an analyst at Societe Generale SA in London. Apple will introduce a TV set-top box and is negotiating with Time Warner Cable Inc. and other potential partners to add video content, people familiar with the plans said in February. The company also is exploring a smartwatch, people familiar with those plans have said.
“We’re going to see quite a bit of new products,” said Perkins, who recommends holding the stock. “Perhaps we’ll see bigger screen phones, we might see more than one phone launched in the year, or one of these big products that so many people talk about: the iWatch or the iTV.”...
The Chicago Board Options Exchange Apple VIX Index rose 1.5 percent to 22.79 at 9:38 a.m. in New York today. The CBOE NDX Volatility Index for the Nasdaq gained 0.3 percent to 16.42, while the CBOE Volatility Index of Standard & Poor’s 500 Index options added 0.2 percent to 13.12.
Apple traders own more bullish options (AAPL:US) than bearish ones. There were 1.22 million calls giving the right to buy the stock, 40 percent more than puts to sell, according to data compiled by Bloomberg as of April 1. Eight of the 10 most-owned contracts were bullish, with calls betting on a 9 percent jump to $590 by April 19 having the largest open interest, the data show.
April 2, 2014 11:31 AM EDT
Apple (AAPL) Set to Raise Buyback Up to $50B and Dividend Up to 20%
Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) is set to announce its fiscal second quarter earnings results on April 23rd (after the close) and with the numbers the iPhone maker could significantly raise its share repurchase plan and/or dividend.
Commenting on its capital return plans in a recent proxy statement (specifically to address a prior Icahn proposal), Apple said: "Consistent with its pattern for the last two years, the Company is on track to complete its regular review and thorough analysis and to announce any changes to the current program by March or April of 2014."
In February, Carl Icahn dropped his non-binding proposal for Apple to accelerate their share repurchases after the company announced, amid share weakness following its Q1 report, that it repurchased in "two weeks alone" $14 billion worth in shares, and that "for fiscal 2014, it appears on track to repurchase at least $32 billion in shares."
Apple currently has a $100 billion share repurchase plan in place, last raising it $60 billion on April 23, 2013. Of the $100 billion, Apple has repurchased at least $59.3 billion as of today ($45.274 billion as of the end of Q1 and the $14 billion disclosed after Q1 results).
On the dividend, Apple currently pays out $3.05 per share quarterly, or $12.20 per share on any annualized basis - giving the dividend a yield of 2.3%.
With earnings, some are expecting Apple to raise the share repurchase plan by another $25-$50 billion and raise its dividend 10-20%.
happy earnings season everybody :)
Mar 31, 2014, 05:11 PM #1
Apple to Announce Q2 2014 Earnings on April 23
Apple updated its investor relations page today to note that it will announce its earnings for the second fiscal quarter (first calendar quarter) of 2014 on Wednesday, April 23. The earnings release typically occurs just after 4:30 PM Eastern Time following the close of regular stock trading, and the conference call is scheduled to follow at 5:00 PM Eastern / 2:00 PM Pacific.
MacRumors will provide running coverage of the earnings release and conference call.
The release will provide a look at sales of the iPad Air and Retina iPad mini sales during their second quarter of availability as well as iPhone 5s and 5c sales through the first three months of 2014. Apple reported a record number of iPhone/iPad sales during the first quarter of 2014, at 51 million iPhones and 26 million iPads.
In its fiscal first-quarter earnings call, Apple guided expected revenue of $42-44 billion and gross margin between 37 and 38 percent. This reflects an expectation of near-zero growth from Q2 of fiscal 2013.
i love this market. i really do! it is so easy to make make money. thanks to janet yellan it is free money because the fed has promised to push on with stimulus cuts forever. so just buy the ƒucking dip. if you don't then you are a ƒucking idiot. and don't forget to tell all your family and friends to open a margin account and buy the ƒucking dip.
hope this helps
Large-Screen iPhone 6 Release Date Very Imminent as Waning Interest on iPhone 5S Accelerates – Analyst
By Erik Pineda | April 6, 2014 11:50 AM EST
A large-screen iPhone 6 on release date is inevitable, a new report said, adding that the hotly-anticipated device's arrival could be much earlier than thought of.
More voices were added to the snowballing iPhone 6 discourse, its 2014 release date supposedly gaining more ground as a new render and fresh details defining the hotly-anticipated handset came out.
Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Brian White was on recent tour in Asia, according to Apple Insider, the general pulse he gathered there was of the alarming decreasing attention that Apple's current flagship, the iPhone 5S, has been getting lately...
The decline has been observed for some time now but the Cantor Fitzgerald analyst maintained that Apple can easily reverse the situation - by finally entering the phablet market...
Started by Samsung with the first Galaxy Note smartphone in 2011, phablets roared into incredible growth pace since then, prompting analysts to predict that the iPhone maker will soon join the pack despite earlier protestations from Apple CEO Tim Cook.
"We heard great enthusiasm around the potential for Apple to introduce a larger iPhone form-factor in China this year with the iPhone 6," White wrote in his note to investors on Friday
He added that "the iPhone 6 with a larger screen (e.g., 4.7-inch, 5.5-inch) has the potential to meaningfully accelerate Apple's growth trajectory in China during 2H:14 (second half of 2014)."
The analyst also predicted that a phablet-size iOS smartphone "could be a very special iPhone launch for Apple."
The iPhone 6 release date, boasting of an upsized display from the 4-inch iPhone 5S and loads of killer features stuffed with iOS 8, was previously forecasted by some analyst to come earlier than its predecessor, likely between July and August 2014 with the volume production set to start in May.
Apple Estimates, PT Raised at BMO Capital
April 4, 2014 8:10 AM EDT Send to a Friend
BMO Capital analyst Keith Bachman reiterated an Outperform rating on Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), raised estimates and raised his price target from $560 to $565. However, the firm thinks the June quarter estimates are too high.
Bachman is raising EPS estimates on Apple, driven by aggressive share buybacks. Apple repurchased approximately $14 billion worth of stock, and they assume that the share count declines by around 22 million, to 880 million shares in the March quarter. In addition, they assume total share buybacks of about $35 billion in FY2014 and FY2015, compared with $40 billion over the past 12 months.
The firm is raising their March quarter EPS estimate to $10.23 from $10.16 (consensus of $10.14). They are also raising FY2014 EPS estimate to $41.59 from $41.36 (consensus of $42.75) and FY2015 EPS estimate to $45.15 from $44.55 (consensus of $46.54).
On the June quarter, the firm thinks estimates, particularly revenues, are too high. For the June quarter, they project revenue of $36.6 billion vs. consensus of $38.6 billion.
Looking out longer-term, they see three catalysts: 1) large-screen iPhone, which we think is important for Apple’s pricing category; 2) a wearable category, for which we think the market is in the very early stages, and dependent on GUI/software and an integrated ecosystem, areas of Apple’s competitive advantage; and 3) more services, including—potentially—payments.