1. Negative -- Factor in income taxes and a few other expenses. (~ x0.6)
2. Positive - Factor in an annual sales growth rate of 10% / year (of which about 7% is due to the increase in the number of patients). I'm assuming that this dialysis-dependent inflation rate applies to PRE-dialysis CKD too. (~ x2.0 after 7.2 years (rule of 72))
3. Positive -- Add in sales for dialysis-dependent CKD patients. With the bundle thru Jan. 2016, it has now become irrational for dialysis providers not to use Zerenix. So this has to be worth over $1 billion/year. Let's conservatively use a factor of x2.0.
4. Positive -- Add in sales for non-CKD anemia patients! (~ x1.5 / 2.0 / 3.0 ?????)
Does anybody know how big 4. could be???
Lastly, as you state, your assumed NDD-CKD penetration of 7% looks very conservative.