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iShares FTSE NAREIT Mort Plus Cp Idx Message Board

anal.lyst 56 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 3, 2014 9:47 AM Member since: Mar 29, 2010
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  • Reply to

    IT Acquisition

    by z31_faceecaf_13z Oct 2, 2014 9:40 AM
    anal.lyst anal.lyst Oct 3, 2014 9:47 AM Flag

    I like the deal too. You might want to read the Seeking Alpha Article "Update: Iron Mountain Buys Cloud Based Service Company To Help Penetrate The Electronic Document Space." The author has other IRM article there too. He's the reason I bought IRM just before the PLR at $29.


  • anal.lyst anal.lyst Sep 30, 2014 10:44 AM Flag


    You have done such exemplary DD on IRM to find this out!! You should sell everything else, borrow every cent you can, mortgage every piece of property you have and PUT IT ALL IN IRM.


  • "You sell & I'll buy & we'll see whose right."

    Not saying that SDRL has no problems. I'm saying that SDRL is in far better shape than the other deep water drillers since SDRL's fleet is newer, SDRL has SDLP to help raise funds, and Frederickson has pulled rabbits out of his hat on other occasions.

    That is why I'm in @ a $31.35 average. I believe that the dividend WILL hold at $4. But unless you maintain that the dividend will go to $0, I see SDRL as a buy here. A cut in the dividend, which I don't see happening, to $3 still leaves me @ just under 10% yield. And a cut to $3-$3.50 would most likely cause SDRL to RISE. I've seen this happen to good companies innumerable times.

    Anyway, that's my position on SDRL, perhaps I'm stuck with it. Time will tell.


  • Reply to

    My sincere apologies to cajunlady.

    by anal.lyst Sep 19, 2014 10:30 AM
    anal.lyst anal.lyst Sep 19, 2014 11:12 AM Flag


  • anal.lyst by anal.lyst Sep 19, 2014 10:38 AM Flag

    The sudden tsunami of negativity over SDRL & its dividend on this board is amazing!

    I'm not saying SDRL is all cream & roses, there are problems for all the offshore drillers on the near term horizon. For me though this follow-the-leader complete negativity makes me think we are at or near the bottom in SDRL. I'll put my money on Frederickson & SDRL's modern fleet, as well as, their MLP conduit to necessary funds SDLP.

    Just my (probably errant) opinion.


  • I made fun of your $28 SDRL prediction when SDRL was $34 or so.

    I apologize, you were right, I as is often the case was dead wrong.


  • Reply to

    At $28, 14% yeild, better than most REITs

    by lightdoesnotage Sep 19, 2014 10:24 AM
    anal.lyst anal.lyst Sep 19, 2014 10:28 AM Flag


    If you have a equity REIT with a 14%, H*e*l*l even a 10% yield, you should be selling it immediately cause it WILL be cutting the dividend. If you're talking about mREITs then I'd direct you to what happened to ALL of their dividends in 2008-09.


  • anal.lyst anal.lyst Sep 16, 2014 10:35 AM Flag


    You might want to read an interesting article published overnight on Seeking alpha under the title "Update: Iron Mountain Inc. REIT Dividend, Special Dividend, And Catch-Up Dividend". The author makes a good (I think) point on why the initial REIT dividend is at the annual rate of $1.90 instead of your expected $2+ rate.

    I think the author MAY be right, but, of course only time will tell. I'm long IRM & happy with things so far. I'm looking forward to the coming dividend(s) mentioned in the article and for my part will elect to take ALL stock in the special dividend.


  • anal.lyst anal.lyst Sep 9, 2014 5:25 PM Flag

    "We think the dividend will be cut and initiate with a SELL and NKr 170 price target."

    You & these two M*O*R*O*N*S couldn't find your A*S*S*E*S with both your hands.

    "WE THINK?"

    Besides being an oxymoron, what does "think" have to do with the future when it ACTUALLY becomes the present? I THINK SDRL holds the dividend just as they promise & I further THINK SDRL is over $40 in Jan. 2015.

    As Richard Kinder CEO of KMI said when the Bozos at Hedgeye & Barron's thrashed his companies, "I'll buy & you sell & we'll see who is right." It sure wasn't Barron's/Hedgeye!


  • Reply to

    BGS stock .....week in review

    by jackmaster20 Aug 2, 2014 10:33 AM
    anal.lyst anal.lyst Sep 9, 2014 3:32 PM Flag

    Now that's a pot (beef stupid) post calling the kettle black post, if I ever saw one.


  • Reply to

    Friday Prediction

    by z31_faceecaf_13z Sep 5, 2014 11:24 AM
    anal.lyst anal.lyst Sep 6, 2014 12:17 PM Flag

    "Might be my exit point."

    To each his/her own. I'm in IRM for the long haul---my lifetime, barring unusual circumstances--w/ I expect a good yield as a REIT that will increase 4-5% per year. At my expected total cost of $30-32---when I complete my position--my yield on cost will be 6%++ at the expected REIT dividend of $2-$2.16 per year.


  • anal.lyst anal.lyst Sep 6, 2014 11:50 AM Flag

    listen_jockers is apparently another wack job that didn't bother to even TRY to understand SDRL's business & balance sheet before treating us to his/her diarrhea postings.

    See this all the time on MLP/REIT/BDC boards where distributions often FAR EXCEED the GAAP earnings. I've lost count of the times some Bozo has told me I'm doomed to lose my entire KMP investment because their GAAAP earnings do not. have never, and probably never will cover the distribution---until they become a "C" corp in the pending KMI reorganization.


  • Reply to

    Am I blind?

    by rbillywhiskers Sep 5, 2014 5:19 PM
    anal.lyst anal.lyst Sep 6, 2014 11:42 AM Flag

    "2, BP just proved that an oil rig carries huge liability in the damage it can do if something goes wrong. risk"

    As far as #2 goes, the comparison with BP is NOT the correct one. The comparison should be with Transocean (RIG) and their monetary liability are FAR lower than BP. In addition the rig in question was NOT "state of the art", in fact it was having problems all along. Finally, human problems & miscalculations are unavoidable that's one of the reasons the rental on these rigs is $400-$600 THOUSAND dollars PER DAY.

    I'm not saying that SDRL can't have a disaster, just that the comparison with BP's liability is not appropriate.


  • Reply to


    by anal.lyst Sep 5, 2014 9:51 AM
    anal.lyst anal.lyst Sep 5, 2014 4:12 PM Flag

    Fredericksen owns GMLP through his ownership of Golar LNG (GLNG). GLNG/GMLP has the same relationship as SDRL/SDLP. I own GMLP, SDRL, and as of today SDRL. I also won Ship Finance SFL another of Fredericksen's companies where the dividends are also sweet. My cost at SFL is $14,64 and although they had to cut the dividend during the collapse they have been raising it back up the last few year. Fredericksen's companies are USUALLY---FRO is the exception---great dividend payers since he owns boatloads of shares in each so his interests and ours are aligned, unlike some of the #$%$ managements, think DRYS, out there.

    Just my view, & I'm stick with it!


  • Reply to

    MSN rates SDRL a STRONG BUY!!!

    by zbgb952 Sep 5, 2014 1:05 PM
    anal.lyst anal.lyst Sep 5, 2014 1:44 PM Flag

    Unfortunately MSN is NOT going to make up your losses if they turn out to be wrong in their assessment of SDRL.

    As a newly minted long as of today, just saying'.


  • anal.lyst by anal.lyst Sep 5, 2014 9:51 AM Flag

    Just got in @ $34.40. Hope my poor track record doesn't jinx the rest of you longs, Oh well, just have to wait & see. I'm a long term holder---until I die---so short moves don't bother me; unless they are Chapter 11 & result in a $0 price. I own other Fredericksen entities, SDLP & GMLP, so I don't really expect a Chapter 11.

    Good luck to all.


  • Reply to

    See u at 32 then 28 right behind

    by cajunlady123 Sep 4, 2014 1:45 PM
    anal.lyst anal.lyst Sep 4, 2014 3:25 PM Flag

    Cajunladys family tree must have a plethora of brother/sister marriages. Probably not out to a 2nd cousin in many generations.


  • Reply to

    Am I missing Something??

    by spring.creek Sep 3, 2014 12:11 PM
    anal.lyst anal.lyst Sep 3, 2014 12:51 PM Flag

    But I own 35+ MLPs and I can tell you that it is VERY RARE for a secondary to be announced followed by a price RISE. IF you could sell at $80+ and buy back at $76 with CERTAINTY, the big guys would be doing so so I guess it is VERY unlikely.

    It's your money, if you want to take the chance, go ahead. I prefer to hold on to my position and not create a tax event and then to add insult to injury NOT be able to re-establish my BPL position.


  • anal.lyst anal.lyst Sep 2, 2014 4:42 PM Flag

    If I were going to buy IRM new, I would buy 1/2 position under $35, if it reaches that price before the exact special dividend terms are announced. I would then buy the other half after x-divdend date caused the $3-$4 dollar drop IF that drop resulted in a price of $32 or less.

    I have my IRM shares @ a cost of $27 & $34.50. I will be getting more as a result of the special dividend. IF the result of the special dividend x-date is under $32 I will complete my position, if not I'll wait & see what transpires with the dividend rate & if, as I expect, there are future increases in that rate.

    That's my strategy as least. Take it for what I'm charging you for it :).


  • anal.lyst anal.lyst Aug 29, 2014 4:15 PM Flag

    Zack's as usual is wrong. The $1.3 to $1.4 billion dollar figure INCLUDES a $700 million special dividend already paid in 2012 as part of the pending REIT conversion. IRM will give a special dividend of $600 to $700 million dollars later this year to complete the REIT conversion process begun in 2012. This is expected to be 80% stock & 20% cash, with the cash a help for shareholders to pay the tax on this dividend which WILL be taxable.

    So the special dividend will be $3 to $4 a share. It WILL be taxable & it WILL reduce the price of IRM on the x-date by whatever amount it turns out to be. For more information, see Seeking Alpha articles, "Significant Dividend Income Opportunity Remains In Iron Mountain After IRS REIT Conversion Approval" & "Update: Iron Mountain Inc. Form 8-K Filing."


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