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Smith Micro Software Inc. Message Board

analogphoneline 36 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 25, 2014 2:15 PM Member since: Mar 15, 2005
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  • analogphoneline analogphoneline Aug 25, 2014 2:15 PM Flag

    Perfectly true and they are probably aware of that fact and selling it to highly appreciated competitors. Executive compensation packages can come with 5 to 10 million in severance packages. It saves a few bucks when buying a company in transition if the end effect is to get rid of the CEO and incorporate their products and IP into yours. The trick is agreeing on an acquisition price that longer term majority shareholders accept.

  • analogphoneline by analogphoneline Aug 20, 2014 3:14 PM Flag

    I was investing in solar when SPWR was 3 and change and FSLR was trading at 11 and it looked like all hope was gone in the solar industry. The short ratios were about 30% for all those companies just like they are here now. Look up the prices now when the industry turned around. Its not as much fun to ride the short bus when sentiment changes to positive after years of suck.

  • analogphoneline by analogphoneline Aug 19, 2014 3:13 PM Flag

    July was one of the first months that a friend of a friend that looks over the Aeropostale region received a bonus. That being said, July was probably a good month which is a good lead into the new quarter. Aeropostale also decreased the loss outlook. ARO stock trades so low because there was nothing but bad news for a long long time. You are going to be toast if you short here. This is not the usual dead cat bounce but an intra-day opposite (live cat drop). Shorts are trying to hold it down but the sentiment has changed and the sentiment leads the direction of the trade.

  • Reply to


    by fraud_mega Aug 19, 2014 2:31 PM
    analogphoneline analogphoneline Aug 19, 2014 2:51 PM Flag

    It's going to take Sycamore at least a week to crunch the numbers. That is unless a deal was in the works before knowledge of the company turning the corner. Ill tell you one thing. July was one of the first months that a friend of a friend that looks over the Aeropostale region received a bonus. That being said, July was probably a good month but the others were probably poor.
    If July results continue into the back to school season we will short covering and a return to 10 as quick as ARO stock went down.

  • The numbers are looking better and if they wait too long they will have to pay more than the conversion price on the debt. By far the numbers are getting better than analyst expectations.

  • A new CEO alone could be considered a danger sign but that was clarified as being incorrect with the revision of Q2 better by 25%
    "Comparable second quarter EPS estimates were boosted from a $0.61 to $0.55 loss to a $0.42 to $0.45 loss. The midpoint of the new estimate is 25 percent higher than the Wall Street consensus of negative $0.58."
    This is the kind of news we have really been waiting to hear.

  • analogphoneline by analogphoneline Aug 18, 2014 2:28 PM Flag

    Not that anyone can profit from Ebola but does Vical still produce a DNA vaccine or have any ties to it?

  • analogphoneline by analogphoneline Aug 8, 2014 3:56 PM Flag

    You all should do the same. Get friendly with the boss or a sales associate and ask if same store sales are up or down. They all know from sales meetings... I used to work at structure back in 1995.

  • Reply to

    No News =

    by koyanniskattsi Aug 8, 2014 12:41 PM
    analogphoneline analogphoneline Aug 8, 2014 2:40 PM Flag

    You know you will be out of any short before the report and are trying to get out since you were right so far and want to protect a gain. It's too dangerous to hear that the new campaign is actually working no matter what the last quarter looked like. The stock would be up 50-100% overnight and some big money would come buying. Now is probably a better time to get out of a short since it looks like retail is picking up and the 52 week stock is probably not getting any lower from here.

  • analogphoneline by analogphoneline Aug 1, 2014 12:28 PM Flag

    It would be very bullish and we could possibly see 4 and beyond soon if PLNR rises again and ends the day near or past that number. Many investors follow 52 week highs and some alerts would be set off.

  • Reply to

    Earnings were better than Expected

    by mp_r Jul 24, 2014 3:44 PM
    analogphoneline analogphoneline Jul 24, 2014 5:16 PM Flag

    It wont go to 20 cents because it never does It has a history of trading at a market cap half of cash. As cash trickles away it trades down to around 55 cents or so where they do a 6 to 1 reverse split and take the shares to 3 dollars where it trickles back down to about $2.50 where Shai does a cash raise under market at $2 bucks with a dilution a multiple of shares outstanding on top of issuing warrants killing the stock even more. It has happened multiple times and putting a cap on any gain as the warrants would be exercised.
    The tricky thing is that the fundamentals look great mostly trading less than cash and the potential for a breakthrough product that has always become broken. Neurometrix is a complete trap.unless you really know the history and have been trading or observing it for close to a decade. My father, a rhematologist, owned the stock and purchased the NC Stat in his office close to its peak, comparable to being thousands of dollars a share today, but sold and told me they were crooks. Insurance never covered the cost of the consumables and it was a loosing venture even the company promised otherwise. This is a true story and how it ended up on my portfolio and then only mostly on my watch list once I became smart enough to realize their game.
    True story

    The only thing that surprises me is how the stock has stayed for so long trading above a market cap half of cash and sticking above $2.00. For about four years it stock to a market cap half of cash and the past year and a half it actually traded closer to cash. Historically it has been overvalued for a year and a half but it looks like such a value. I would never short it because you never know if someone will manipulate it up to make some money rather than down.

    Just stay away... look at all the money people are making around you in real companies in this market. Buy SPY and you will have made any money you lost and then some in a decade barring some major event.

  • You've changed so we've changed is the slogan.
    Buy now before Wall Street changes to bullish. If the campaign is taken well we could see a quick double or even triple.

  • Reply to

    I'm guessing NURO will go up

    by analogphoneline Jul 14, 2014 2:35 PM
    analogphoneline analogphoneline Jul 16, 2014 4:06 PM Flag

    I sold yesterday and sucked up a loss as well. The proxy said holders as of 7/14/2014 which does not mean that recent investor group. It might be the last investor group or the one from the time before. There would be some good tax loss selling if its the one from the time before that. They lost 98% or so of their value when every thing else in the market seems to go up.
    All the going concern and 140+ million lost to date is just too much when only $1.5 million annual is being brought in by the new product when they once had over $30 million. I'd be concerned about getting any future financing when the company has a history of failing. I'm glad I have stayed away for the past few years from investing in NURO and learnt my lesson that the company always outdoes itself when you think they cant give one more beating to their shareholders. People just don't buy Neurometrix product without insurance coverage.
    Investing in NURO with a proxy like that is different than investing venture capital money in a potential new product. This company has a history of failing over and over and don't expect anything different through their words since they just dont follow through. Once that registration goes through and the 6 million new shares are available to sell it could get ugly.

  • Reply to

    Aeropostale is the next AMERICAN APPAREL

    by davidsonisaackson Jul 9, 2014 8:54 PM
    analogphoneline analogphoneline Jul 16, 2014 2:45 PM Flag

    American Apparel trades with only 60 million in market cap less than ARO and has 240 million more in debt. You could say that ARO trades at a discount of 180 million to APP. Aropostale is valued far less than that company right now if you do a correct deduction.

  • Reply to

    Herere is why this will Sky rocket to $5+

    by navindoc Jul 15, 2014 10:25 AM
    analogphoneline analogphoneline Jul 16, 2014 9:28 AM Flag

    The only reason NURO can skyrocket to 5+ is if someone with money wan't to manipulate it to make more money. There is a reason for Neurometrix to make such bad deals to acquire financing. Placing them below the market with warrants and the backup ability to reprice some. This is horrible for any shareholder.

    Neurometrix is like a cornered dog. They will do anything to survive and pay salaries at a loss to shareholders. Kind of like a sharholder who realized they made a mistake who will also pump and do anything hoping to stay above water.

  • analogphoneline analogphoneline Jul 15, 2014 6:43 PM Flag

    its still pretty pathetic that this company burned through 140+ million dollars while the stock fell and reverse splits and dilution took place to end up with everything the prospectus says. If you are a current shareholder you should read it: Going concern, will likely need to raise more cash, and the Sensus and DPN Check only brought in 1.5 million in revenues last year which is less than the salary of the top five guys. All other products are being phased out. Don't sue the company if you loose everything because the prospectus tells you to the worst is possible. Yes NURO may run to 4 or so but I am pretty certain what the end result will be as funds dwindle.

  • analogphoneline by analogphoneline Jul 14, 2014 2:35 PM Flag

    Looks like NURO stabilized may even see a bounce up. If I am right about the new investor being a part of the manipulation they may be smart and let the rest of their shares ride a bit and make a bit of money. They may partake in some of the buying to get it going. I put a few Pennys in today for a gamble.

  • Reply to

    Short interest

    by tr_tr95 Jul 11, 2014 12:03 PM
    analogphoneline analogphoneline Jul 11, 2014 11:10 PM Flag

    Good luck to you. There is always a chance. I'm surprised NURO has not been taken on a run to ten bucks or so since I have been an investor/onlooker. It always seemed like they had a story to sell and a small float. Hopefully you'll get lucky and get one and I'll wish I was invested.

  • Reply to

    Short interest

    by tr_tr95 Jul 11, 2014 12:03 PM
    analogphoneline analogphoneline Jul 11, 2014 4:56 PM Flag

    The funding group would have shorted from 3 bucks down to this level. Not because of being negative on Neurometrix but for the instant gain that they "probably" assumed from insider information shared to gain the funding in the first place. There may not be overall public evidence of something shady going on but its statistically improbable that something is not. I think if the SEC investigated they could follow a paper trail and discover something.

    The funding group shorts to solidify the gain on the spread between the market price and the 2.05 conversion. There would no need to cover the short at market because the preferred conversion covers it. Now any sale above 2.05 is profitable and puts a cap on the stock. New retail investors drug in by the news will continue to sell if the stock does not turn up creating new selling pressure and drive the stock down. So its not the funding group that pushes the stock lower from here but new short term retail investors hoping for a quick gain which instead sell for a quick loss.

    The only hope for a long investor is that something like China news occurs soon, the new funding group has sold short all of the shares covered by the preferred, and Shai is comfortable with his cash raise and will not do it again the same way on the news.
    The board of directors are happy lap dogs for Shai and all decisions show that they disregard their fiduciary responsibility completely and let investors get taken to the cleaners.

    In the past Shai was comfortable with a 20 million dollar cash position and raised every time that dwindled down to around 10 million. Now it more readily dwindles down further since it is harder to hook new investors groups since the stock history is pathetic and has no story to sell. I would hate to think Shai will use China to do another sucker punch with a dilution.

    There are many better places to put your money.

  • Reply to

    Short interest

    by tr_tr95 Jul 11, 2014 12:03 PM
    analogphoneline analogphoneline Jul 11, 2014 3:08 PM Flag

    Think about it. Short but not how you think. The covering will come from the conversion of the preferred and not something that would drive up the price.

    Here is what I think happens which leads to the ability to find financing after all this time:

    Shai tells the funding group the news coming out, the funding group agrees with Shai on a good price around market, and the funding group shorts into the news after an initial jump for an immediate profit. Shai and execs get the funding to pay the close to half a million dollar salaries and the funding company gets an instant gain but kills any rally in return. In fact the opposite occurs as all the new investors gradually give up on the company driving the stock lower leading to the next reverse stock split setting up for the next shady dilution.

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