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Celgene Corporation Message Board

analyst112 17 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 18, 2015 11:34 AM Member since: Mar 30, 2000
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  • analyst112 analyst112 Aug 18, 2015 11:34 AM Flag

    MITK has its front end built into Fiserv and Jack Henry software. They are not going with any other provider when it works so well and is very cheap--too cheap. MITK also has a rock solid patent on MiSnap mobile capture which is revolutionary and eliminates errors. I cannot believe MITK stock is so cheap. Positive cash flow and $27MM of cash and EV of only $78MM. They also have other recognition software that is leading edge.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Q2

    by landshannen Aug 5, 2015 1:25 PM
    analyst112 analyst112 Aug 13, 2015 10:06 AM Flag

    But it is now very cheap. Selling below BV and at 10x earnings. The yield is 4% and they have the ability to grow the dividend 10-12% for several years. I am disappointed they are not buying back stock more aggressively at these levels. In 1Q they paid $19/shr. We will see.

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Aug 10, 2015 2:14 PM Flag

    More cyclical companies make us vulnerable in next downturn. The aerospace cyclical is good now but can be awful. What the heck is he doing?

    Sentiment: Sell

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Aug 6, 2015 11:15 AM Flag

    fuel margins are supposed to expand with declining prices, Company still conflicted with parent, Spending way too much on capex and getting no return, buying too many outlets that others are dumping. EBITDAR is not a valid measure of anything. SELL it all and wait for $7/shr.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Aug 4, 2015 10:53 AM Flag

    $50MM in revs and selling at 1x revs makes it attractive to Orbcomm. Orbcomm is buying revenues. They can merge the entire revenue stream with their communications offering, eliminate all overhead including public company cost, all management, sales and R&D. . Buyout price may be around $6.

  • NWIN has BV $27.50, Stock around $26 and earning $2.60. Yield is 4%%, Earns 1% on assets. Recent acquisition should push earnings to over $3 next year. Dividend growing at 8%. Hard to buy but almost guaranteed 12% total return and good chance for a buyout at 50% higher price. CMOH is just as cheap.

  • Reply to

    super cheap bank

    by analyst112 Jul 15, 2015 3:10 PM
    analyst112 analyst112 Jul 15, 2015 3:11 PM Flag

    NWIN is even cheaper with 4% yield

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Jul 15, 2015 3:10 PM Flag

    Selling at BV with 10% ROE and 1% ROA. 3.3% yield should grow 10% per year. Bank will be bought at 1.6x BV. 100% upside.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Huge AG writeoff

    by analyst112 Jul 15, 2015 12:51 PM
    analyst112 analyst112 Jul 15, 2015 12:53 PM Flag

    Then AG loss is almost $50 million. Just as predicted.

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Jul 15, 2015 12:51 PM Flag

    The LaJolla farmers did not get it right. They carry AG at $152 million. That is $70 million of equity. They are getting $30MM but $10-15 is being held in escrow against future losses and contingencies. So book value will drop by at least $2/shr and probably more to $15.50. The stock should be selling at 70% of BV to verify how bad these guys are at managing assets and their huge salaries which keep eating away at BV.

    I would have thought that by now some corporate raider would have tossed these guys out. Problem is the thing is just too small and the remaining assets are junk. The water is such along term payout that the PV is small. UCP is worth zip as it will go bankrupt in the next housing decline.

    Target price $10/shr.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Jul 9, 2015 10:09 AM Flag

    Love NWIN and CMOH and BYLK. All selling around BV and earning 10% on equity and 1% on assets . Should be selling at 1.5x BV or 50% higher. NWIN yields 4% and CMOH 3.3%.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Jul 9, 2015 10:05 AM Flag

    BV $27.50, Stock around $27 and earning $2.60. Yield is 4%%, Earns 1% on assets. Recent acquisition should push earnings to over $3 next year. Dividend growing at 8%. Hard to buy but almost guaranteed 12% total return and good chance for a buyout at 50% higher price. CMOH is just as cheap.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Jul 8, 2015 10:31 AM Flag

    They forgot to sell the 43% interest in UCP. It is now only worth $1.20/shr. They cannot sell it now as housing stocks are out of favor and UCP is unprofitable and illiquid. It is chap 11 in next housing downturn. Mindjet interest is maybe worth $.50/shr and Canola is worth zero. AG is carried at $7.15/shr and that means a writeoff of $7/shr. BV is a fiction. The cash on the BS and misc is a generous $3/shr and was down about 25% last year as public stocks they owned dropped in value (while the stock market was up 13%) . That leaves the water asset which has a present value of about $5/shr. It's value is growing at about 4% but a buyer would put a 15% discount rate on that. That all adds up to $9/shr but MGT is taking $3.6MM per year in comp. I will look at it again at $8/shr. where it will surely go. Your money. This company is worth following as an HBS study of poor management. You might also note the major holders and avoid their mutual funds as they are just as dumb. I follow this because Hart was portrayed to me as a great investor. Yike! If you see errors in my work, let me know.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Jul 6, 2015 2:32 PM Flag

    They were issued shares in exchange for future income. They also get to double dip in the future in fees for performance. This is not an arms length agreement and no shareholder vote. By my calculation they were paid 32x the annual savings to the REIT and then we are diluted 5%. Plus thye still reimbursement. This sucks. They also need to cover the dividend on the new shares. This is another awful deal. for shareholders. The next step is a dividend cut.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Jun 29, 2015 10:14 AM Flag

    Down 10% more than the market in 2015 ---so far. Warren is ruining his portfolio with highly cyclical stocks like rails and housing. It may pay off if inflation comes roaring back but not right now. Buy level around 120% of BV or $175,000

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Jun 18, 2015 10:44 AM Flag

    Sally Thornton, the wife of Founder John Thornton, has died. She was a great benefactor of San Diego and member of our Board. We mourn her loss.
    The control position of John Thornton is now marked to market under Federal Estate Tax Law. This will accelerate the sale of our company. I have reason to believe the value is over $12/shr. ID check products are more valuable than Mobile Deposit. Fiserv and Jack Henry are obvious buyers.

  • Reply to

    this should help

    by taffy5005 Jun 16, 2015 4:30 PM
    analyst112 analyst112 Jun 17, 2015 4:18 PM Flag

    A long time coming. I have been nagging them for years to do this. This will really juice the EPS and cash flow. UFPT is buying its own stock at 6x EBIDA. It cannot even make acquisitions that cheap.

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