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Famous Dave's of America Inc. Message Board

analyst112 19 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 2, 2015 1:45 PM Member since: Mar 30, 2000
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  • analyst112 by analyst112 Sep 24, 2015 3:50 PM Flag

    3Q will build on 2Q. Revenues will be over $7MM and non-gaap eps will be $.06-.07 I am very pleased to see estimates on Yahoo for down earnings in 2016 because they will blow away estimates. They plan on raising prices for Mobile Deposit at renewal dates and Fiserv and Jack Henry have no choice but to pay up. MySnap is so popular that any other deposit program (of which there are none) would not be acceptable. MITEk will be $12 in 18 months and that is mere $350MM valuation.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Jul 6, 2015 2:32 PM Flag

    They were issued shares in exchange for future income. They also get to double dip in the future in fees for performance. This is not an arms length agreement and no shareholder vote. By my calculation they were paid 32x the annual savings to the REIT and then we are diluted 5%. Plus thye still reimbursement. This sucks. They also need to cover the dividend on the new shares. This is another awful deal. for shareholders. The next step is a dividend cut.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • analyst112 analyst112 Aug 18, 2015 11:34 AM Flag

    MITK has its front end built into Fiserv and Jack Henry software. They are not going with any other provider when it works so well and is very cheap--too cheap. MITK also has a rock solid patent on MiSnap mobile capture which is revolutionary and eliminates errors. I cannot believe MITK stock is so cheap. Positive cash flow and $27MM of cash and EV of only $78MM. They also have other recognition software that is leading edge.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Jul 15, 2015 12:51 PM Flag

    The LaJolla farmers did not get it right. They carry AG at $152 million. That is $70 million of equity. They are getting $30MM but $10-15 is being held in escrow against future losses and contingencies. So book value will drop by at least $2/shr and probably more to $15.50. The stock should be selling at 70% of BV to verify how bad these guys are at managing assets and their huge salaries which keep eating away at BV.

    I would have thought that by now some corporate raider would have tossed these guys out. Problem is the thing is just too small and the remaining assets are junk. The water is such along term payout that the PV is small. UCP is worth zip as it will go bankrupt in the next housing decline.

    Target price $10/shr.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Aug 10, 2015 2:14 PM Flag

    More cyclical companies make us vulnerable in next downturn. The aerospace cyclical is good now but can be awful. What the heck is he doing?

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    VZ CEO just said 2016 growth flat

    by treworm77 Sep 17, 2015 9:22 AM
    analyst112 analyst112 Sep 17, 2015 9:40 AM Flag

    not new news-- estimates are flat. Cash flow is up and that is what counts for the dividend increase coming up.

  • Reply to


    by steves528100 Sep 16, 2015 2:23 PM
    analyst112 analyst112 Sep 17, 2015 11:44 AM Flag

    MySnap is patented and protects all Mitek patents from infringement. You cannot use it without the base software for Mobile Deposit. It virtually locks out competition. Mitek is worth $500 million or $16/shr. The company will be sold in the next few years.

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Oct 2, 2015 1:45 PM Flag

    MITK is meeting with analysts and the San Diego Rotary on Thursday. The have a great story. The stock is thin so it moves all over the place. They are earning at a $.24 rate, so the stock is dirt cheap. The total market value is only $$75MM with $36MM in revenues. Mobile Deposit has years of growth in users and Mitek has not raised prices since inception. Since they now have 100% of the Mobile market, at contract rollover time with channel partners, expect to see significant upward pricing. This all flows to the bottom line.

    Their new product of drivers license capture can be much bigger than Mobile Deposit. With a simple photo of any license, contracted insurance companies can give an instant quote. There are an estimated 18,000,000 auto quotes per year.

    The Thornton Family owns 7% and John Thornton is Chairman. They will sell the company in the next few years at $12-15/shr. Happy days ahead.

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Jul 8, 2015 10:31 AM Flag

    They forgot to sell the 43% interest in UCP. It is now only worth $1.20/shr. They cannot sell it now as housing stocks are out of favor and UCP is unprofitable and illiquid. It is chap 11 in next housing downturn. Mindjet interest is maybe worth $.50/shr and Canola is worth zero. AG is carried at $7.15/shr and that means a writeoff of $7/shr. BV is a fiction. The cash on the BS and misc is a generous $3/shr and was down about 25% last year as public stocks they owned dropped in value (while the stock market was up 13%) . That leaves the water asset which has a present value of about $5/shr. It's value is growing at about 4% but a buyer would put a 15% discount rate on that. That all adds up to $9/shr but MGT is taking $3.6MM per year in comp. I will look at it again at $8/shr. where it will surely go. Your money. This company is worth following as an HBS study of poor management. You might also note the major holders and avoid their mutual funds as they are just as dumb. I follow this because Hart was portrayed to me as a great investor. Yike! If you see errors in my work, let me know.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Jul 9, 2015 10:09 AM Flag

    Love NWIN and CMOH and BYLK. All selling around BV and earning 10% on equity and 1% on assets . Should be selling at 1.5x BV or 50% higher. NWIN yields 4% and CMOH 3.3%.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Jul 9, 2015 10:05 AM Flag

    BV $27.50, Stock around $27 and earning $2.60. Yield is 4%%, Earns 1% on assets. Recent acquisition should push earnings to over $3 next year. Dividend growing at 8%. Hard to buy but almost guaranteed 12% total return and good chance for a buyout at 50% higher price. CMOH is just as cheap.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Jul 15, 2015 3:10 PM Flag

    Selling at BV with 10% ROE and 1% ROA. 3.3% yield should grow 10% per year. Bank will be bought at 1.6x BV. 100% upside.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Huge AG writeoff

    by analyst112 Jul 15, 2015 12:51 PM
    analyst112 analyst112 Jul 15, 2015 12:53 PM Flag

    Then AG loss is almost $50 million. Just as predicted.

  • Reply to

    super cheap bank

    by analyst112 Jul 15, 2015 3:10 PM
    analyst112 analyst112 Jul 15, 2015 3:11 PM Flag

    NWIN is even cheaper with 4% yield

  • NWIN has BV $27.50, Stock around $26 and earning $2.60. Yield is 4%%, Earns 1% on assets. Recent acquisition should push earnings to over $3 next year. Dividend growing at 8%. Hard to buy but almost guaranteed 12% total return and good chance for a buyout at 50% higher price. CMOH is just as cheap.

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Aug 6, 2015 11:15 AM Flag

    fuel margins are supposed to expand with declining prices, Company still conflicted with parent, Spending way too much on capex and getting no return, buying too many outlets that others are dumping. EBITDAR is not a valid measure of anything. SELL it all and wait for $7/shr.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Aug 4, 2015 10:53 AM Flag

    $50MM in revs and selling at 1x revs makes it attractive to Orbcomm. Orbcomm is buying revenues. They can merge the entire revenue stream with their communications offering, eliminate all overhead including public company cost, all management, sales and R&D. . Buyout price may be around $6.

  • Reply to


    by landshannen Aug 5, 2015 1:25 PM
    analyst112 analyst112 Aug 13, 2015 10:06 AM Flag

    But it is now very cheap. Selling below BV and at 10x earnings. The yield is 4% and they have the ability to grow the dividend 10-12% for several years. I am disappointed they are not buying back stock more aggressively at these levels. In 1Q they paid $19/shr. We will see.

  • Reply to

    Divvy not all good news

    by landshannen Sep 14, 2015 8:04 PM
    analyst112 analyst112 Oct 2, 2015 1:27 PM Flag

    Wrong. The are overcapitalized and the activist who owns 25% and who is on the Board, asked for it. MRLN has plenty of capital and retains 60% of earnings yet it still yields 3.7%. Solid company with the prospect of selling the bank to someone who needs lease exposure. The generated a 12% ROA. The stock is cheap at 1.2 x BV

12.75+0.54(+4.42%)Oct 2 3:59 PMEDT