Now selling at $1750/acre on enterprise value basis and $1240/acre on equity basis. Has not been this low in a while. This is the perfect inflation hedge--scarce assets growing 6% per year plus inflation plus dividend yield. 12% total return. Most of the divvy will be tax free.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Almost 100 million shares in last 24 hours. That is 10% of the company changing hands. The weak hands are out and the holders continue. Next week optimism will return and the miscommunication from company will clear up. Year .20-.27 excluding preferred. Will come in on target. EBITDA down due to preferred buyout. $600 million of cash flow and $4.5Billion value--7.5x. Company sitting duck for CVS to take out. We will get a 13G next week from Einhorn.
Growing at 35% rate with no end in sight. They are tiny compared to the banking industry so growth is open ended. They really do not need more capital as BV is growing as fast as assets. It is starting to sell on a PE basis relative to growth and not like a bank. Still pretty cheap.
I lived with it because sales were growing 25%. Now they will have to cut costs to get profitable. The risks of growth stocks!! I am also out. I had this for 15 years and did well.
Compnay says Range ,.20-.27 ex pfd stock cost. Confusing release. They will hit the .24/shr estimate. Cash flow strong at $600 million with $420MM capex leaving $180MM for debt payoff. Good chance to add will rally back next week.
Selling today. Grand total of $600,000 of stock traded last 2 days in US and AUS, which means lots of day traders. Company is rudderless and will head back down.
Note Eggemeyer the "mastermind" behind this mess sold his personal stock at $28 in March of 2013. Castle Creek still owns 280,000 shares that they will dump at some point so they can collect their 20% carry. Unfortunately the BOD is loaded with their cronies most of whom have no clue about banking and do not even know what questions to ask management.
Last time this little slowdown happened, the stock increased 50% thereafter. It is now 27x this years earnings and 22x 2015. They still have an open slate on South American growth. Costco would love to acquire them but they are not ready yet. I live in San Diego with these folks and they are very pumped up about the future. Next year 3-4 more stores and 20% growth.
Unless they are lying, the VA shutdown for 6 weeks. Since that is the big customer it seems reasonable to have sequential drop in revs. Said it is fixed so that rev will flow this quarter. I have to own this as the upside is so huge.
Remarkably poor. Adjusted for acq costs and options vesting only earned $.27 fully taxed. That is a $1.08 annual rate. The dividend is $1.00 so no growth in BV. Stock is 35x earnings and only earning 6% on equity. Cannot understand why it is $40 as it is not an acquisition target. The So. Cal real estate market is less than sluggish. Their high end housing portfolio is vulnerable. CA has taxed the hell out its wealthy residents and they are leaving. This bank is poorly managed and still under the influence of Castle Creek, the second rate bank PE fund that mismanaged this bank. Had a chance to sell it at $80/shr, missed that, and then CC insiders bailed at $18. I would stay away from this.
BV is $642 and market price is $565. WTM will tender for its stock again soon with excess capital. Last time was $600/sh. As owners we get growth of BV plus upward revision in P/BV. That can give us a total return of 25% in 2014. The muni business could be major. They are taking market share in Muni insurance and have done $5Billion of business in one year. This business can be very profitable and competes with Berkshire's business.
WTM is an insurance holding company where the underlying insurance holdings are worth 150% of the current price of WTM. WTM will rationalize this disparity. This sell off in all insurance stocks is a good chance to add to holdings.
You would think the Russians invaded the EPAM HQ in Philadelphia. The Ruskies are no threat to EPAM as they are able to move all development around to various locations. It is not like they have a plant in Crimea that is being invaded. The institutions are just dumping with little knowledge as they have big gains in this from the IPO. It is now 16X 2104 earnings. That is cheaper than the IPO multiple. When the herd moves, you do not want to be in the way. It has already moved.
I was not happy with the CC more as to form than substance.
The open platform is still growing rapidly and the legacy business is getting less significant. Same story. Ipas has a ready buyer for the whole company when/if they see the need to sell. LLC who is large owner will guide that. The infrastructure is in place and would prove very valuable to a strategic buyer. I am not too worried about making money in IPAS but when is an issue. Unity sale will generate significant cash perhaps as much as $15-20MM. Ipas is $100MM sales company valued less than $75mm.
You can try and time the stock but R-22 prices change quickly. EPA is now faced with a new report of ozone depletion again accelerating. They will be criticized for allowing such high production in 2014 and will cut back. This will cause hording from dealers. Whether this happens this year or next, it will happen. When it does, R-22 prices will soar and the stock will be in the teens. At $3, it is very cheap. Buy straw hats in the winter.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
No news, no insider sales, no crash, no weather groundings. Keep eye on ball-- Obamacare nets them payment on some portion of the 40% of no-pays. All that floats to the bottom line. 18 PE for 30% grower.
I think he is a good guy that got trapped by a really bad company. Oaktree also took all the stock leaving others in the cold--but saved it from banko.
They did a financing of $10MM of debt at 9% that will not add to FFO. House of cards. Somehow they think grocery stores are immune from Amazon while consumers are now buying 30% of household consumables from Amazon, the most profitable part of grocery store sales.