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Federated National Holding Company Message Board

analyst112 17 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 29, 2015 1:52 PM Member since: Mar 30, 2000
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  • NWIN has BV $27.50, Stock around $26 and earning $2.60. Yield is 4%%, Earns 1% on assets. Recent acquisition should push earnings to over $3 next year. Dividend growing at 8%. Hard to buy but almost guaranteed 12% total return and good chance for a buyout at 50% higher price. CMOH is just as cheap.

  • Reply to

    super cheap bank

    by analyst112 Jul 15, 2015 3:10 PM
    analyst112 analyst112 Jul 15, 2015 3:11 PM Flag

    NWIN is even cheaper with 4% yield

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Jul 15, 2015 3:10 PM Flag

    Selling at BV with 10% ROE and 1% ROA. 3.3% yield should grow 10% per year. Bank will be bought at 1.6x BV. 100% upside.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Huge AG writeoff

    by analyst112 Jul 15, 2015 12:51 PM
    analyst112 analyst112 Jul 15, 2015 12:53 PM Flag

    Then AG loss is almost $50 million. Just as predicted.

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Jul 15, 2015 12:51 PM Flag

    The LaJolla farmers did not get it right. They carry AG at $152 million. That is $70 million of equity. They are getting $30MM but $10-15 is being held in escrow against future losses and contingencies. So book value will drop by at least $2/shr and probably more to $15.50. The stock should be selling at 70% of BV to verify how bad these guys are at managing assets and their huge salaries which keep eating away at BV.

    I would have thought that by now some corporate raider would have tossed these guys out. Problem is the thing is just too small and the remaining assets are junk. The water is such along term payout that the PV is small. UCP is worth zip as it will go bankrupt in the next housing decline.

    Target price $10/shr.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Jul 9, 2015 10:09 AM Flag

    Love NWIN and CMOH and BYLK. All selling around BV and earning 10% on equity and 1% on assets . Should be selling at 1.5x BV or 50% higher. NWIN yields 4% and CMOH 3.3%.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Jul 9, 2015 10:05 AM Flag

    BV $27.50, Stock around $27 and earning $2.60. Yield is 4%%, Earns 1% on assets. Recent acquisition should push earnings to over $3 next year. Dividend growing at 8%. Hard to buy but almost guaranteed 12% total return and good chance for a buyout at 50% higher price. CMOH is just as cheap.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Jul 8, 2015 10:31 AM Flag

    They forgot to sell the 43% interest in UCP. It is now only worth $1.20/shr. They cannot sell it now as housing stocks are out of favor and UCP is unprofitable and illiquid. It is chap 11 in next housing downturn. Mindjet interest is maybe worth $.50/shr and Canola is worth zero. AG is carried at $7.15/shr and that means a writeoff of $7/shr. BV is a fiction. The cash on the BS and misc is a generous $3/shr and was down about 25% last year as public stocks they owned dropped in value (while the stock market was up 13%) . That leaves the water asset which has a present value of about $5/shr. It's value is growing at about 4% but a buyer would put a 15% discount rate on that. That all adds up to $9/shr but MGT is taking $3.6MM per year in comp. I will look at it again at $8/shr. where it will surely go. Your money. This company is worth following as an HBS study of poor management. You might also note the major holders and avoid their mutual funds as they are just as dumb. I follow this because Hart was portrayed to me as a great investor. Yike! If you see errors in my work, let me know.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Jul 6, 2015 2:32 PM Flag

    They were issued shares in exchange for future income. They also get to double dip in the future in fees for performance. This is not an arms length agreement and no shareholder vote. By my calculation they were paid 32x the annual savings to the REIT and then we are diluted 5%. Plus thye still reimbursement. This sucks. They also need to cover the dividend on the new shares. This is another awful deal. for shareholders. The next step is a dividend cut.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Jun 29, 2015 10:14 AM Flag

    Down 10% more than the market in 2015 ---so far. Warren is ruining his portfolio with highly cyclical stocks like rails and housing. It may pay off if inflation comes roaring back but not right now. Buy level around 120% of BV or $175,000

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Jun 18, 2015 10:44 AM Flag

    Sally Thornton, the wife of Founder John Thornton, has died. She was a great benefactor of San Diego and member of our Board. We mourn her loss.
    The control position of John Thornton is now marked to market under Federal Estate Tax Law. This will accelerate the sale of our company. I have reason to believe the value is over $12/shr. ID check products are more valuable than Mobile Deposit. Fiserv and Jack Henry are obvious buyers.

  • Reply to

    this should help

    by taffy5005 Jun 16, 2015 4:30 PM
    analyst112 analyst112 Jun 17, 2015 4:18 PM Flag

    A long time coming. I have been nagging them for years to do this. This will really juice the EPS and cash flow. UFPT is buying its own stock at 6x EBIDA. It cannot even make acquisitions that cheap.

  • analyst112 by analyst112 May 26, 2015 1:07 PM Flag

    Will raise dividend next quarter to .15 or $.60 annual rate. Company buying back shares. BV 14.26 and P/BV is 1.26 lowest in 3 years.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • analyst112 by analyst112 May 20, 2015 2:00 PM Flag

    The customer goes to WFM and TFM because they do not need to read labels. Everything is organic. Unfortunately, the supermarkets have caught on. Ralph's and Von's in CA have tripled their organic sections. I no longer go to WFM as my needs are met in traditional stores with all their extra offerings. The WFM/TFM niche is being eroded and with prices so much higher, they will now begin to lose market share. WFM is selling at a big cash flow premium to the SPX and has a lower ROE. With growth slowing, that cannot last for long. TFM is a little cheaper but still valued at $10MM/store or 12x cash flow. Their store prices are higher than WFM. They will now bump up against WFM smaller format stores.

  • analyst112 by analyst112 May 20, 2015 12:43 PM Flag

    Now in survival mode. Fired marketing, CFO and other execs. Other key people will leave shortly as hand writing on the wall--slow decline to nowhere. product offering is obsolete and cellphone internet access speeds up and is secure. Ipas missed the boat.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • analyst112 by analyst112 May 20, 2015 12:36 PM Flag

    Cash flow is $12MM/year and MV is $83MM. Very low debt. stock is 6.8x cash flow -.to be inline with the trucking industry, the stock should be $$45--lots of upside

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • analyst112 by analyst112 May 19, 2015 3:09 PM Flag

    margins up, cash flow up, number of customer additions up 40%, only selling at 12x EBITDA @ $2.50 based on company projections plus building cash as capex limited. Open ended growth. Love the prospects. Had a big run in last month so natural that day traders dump some shares. Buying more.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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