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Federated National Holding Company Message Board

analyst112 57 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 15, 2014 11:56 AM Member since: Mar 30, 2000
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  • analyst112 by analyst112 Apr 15, 2014 11:56 AM Flag

    $6.20/shr of excess cash after 2:1 current ratio. That could earn $.62/shr if deployed and it earned only 10% ROE. The stock is selling at 10.7 times 2014 earnings and 9.7x next years earnings--far too cheap. UFPT has upside to $30/shr short term which is 13x 2015 earnings --below a market PE. Thye earn better returns that the SPX. Go figure.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Apr 15, 2014 11:36 AM Flag

    1.5 x book value. That is very cheap for a niche bank with 2.7% ROA and 12% ROE. The balance sheet would allow leverage of earnings to $3/shr without any additional capital. That would be an ROA of 3.1% and an ROE of 20%. At those returns, they could sell the bank for 3x BV or $50/shr. There is a lot of upside again since the price decline. Some money manager got fired and the new manager is just blowing out the position. It will end at some point and then back to $27. Note that the KRE bank stock fund is selling at 2.1 x tangible BV and 1.5x stated book value. We should be at premium to that.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Apr 15, 2014 11:05 AM Flag

    Google has taken your property without your consent. The non-voting shares are not as valuable as determined by the market. Therefore you are entitled to compensation for property confiscated. It is no different than if Google issued you a preferred share for your 1/2 interest. The class action will ask for just compensation not some promise to make things right.

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Apr 11, 2014 9:29 AM Flag

    They are the leading bank investment firm in the U.S. This a big upgrade.
    Keefe Bruyette upgraded BofI Holding (BOFI) to Outperform with a $100 price target citing accretion from the company's deal with H&R Block (HRB).

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Apr 8, 2014 10:15 AM Flag

    Great idea but badly mispriced product. You cannot build a company around a medical product with 43% gross margins. With a $24MM loss, they need $100mm of sales just to break even with normal SG&A growth.

  • Reply to

    little pricy

    by analyst112 Mar 19, 2014 9:41 AM
    analyst112 analyst112 Apr 8, 2014 10:08 AM Flag

    Well here we are at $14 but still not finished---will test the $11.50 low as no progress on getting profitable. Growth without profit is out the window as they will need another stock offering.

  • Reply to

    Zacks says MRLN a strong sell...

    by tpmckeeart Apr 3, 2014 10:38 AM
    analyst112 analyst112 Apr 3, 2014 11:47 AM Flag

    time to buy-- I added today.

  • Reply to

    Very informative CC

    by thundersteel_03 Apr 1, 2014 10:35 AM
    analyst112 analyst112 Apr 1, 2014 10:53 AM Flag

    I bought this at $.50 and have purchased more today and will never sell it as long as they are making progress. I have made that mistake too many times --selling on a weak quarter. This is a ten bagger from here as they get traction. BE will propel the stock up to $3 as MV will still be small at that price. CMXI also cheap and they have CME and FDA approval. Wound care is number one medical growth market.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Very encouraging cc

    by itsallaboutxxxx Apr 1, 2014 9:57 AM
    analyst112 analyst112 Apr 1, 2014 10:32 AM Flag

    They will partner with Pharma. The market is so large and the PR so good for this product that they will be all over this. At their price point, it is wonderful drug for humanity. The 4th quarter is meaningless. All that matters is that they have financing and they are moving forward with rollouts. The India and Africa markets are huge. In for the long run!

  • Reply to

    On The Edge

    by yeahbabyxyz Mar 27, 2014 11:06 PM
    analyst112 analyst112 Mar 28, 2014 10:26 AM Flag

    They have a good chance to partner with Valeant or Allergan. New drugs for cataract are leading edge right now as population for such surgery grows. They met primary end points for NDA. Drug is worth $150 million if approved. Market cap is 25 million. Blep drug is just a #$%$ shoot but no other treatment available. Lid scrubs are useless. FDA needs to approve this. I am a user of Azasite and it works for me. Azasite Plus if approved for Blep is $200 million drug. FDA is just nuts not to approve as no side effects and possible help. Write FDA in support. I think they will partner next and stock will pop.

  • Reply to


    by landshannen Feb 26, 2014 7:51 PM
    analyst112 analyst112 Mar 26, 2014 12:03 PM Flag

    The Fed has no intention of raising short term rates. That would kill the economy. They will let long rates float up. MRLN is 1.7 book value and that represents good value as they will sell out at 3x book in 2016. Book will be $17. They will be earning 15% on equity or $2.50/share. The buyout price will be $50. They are developing a valuable and unique franchise that would be very attractive to a super regional. They are still ramping up to 15% ROE to maximize the buyout price and are still very much under leveraged.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Mar 26, 2014 11:48 AM Flag

    Complain to the SEC whistle blower site as I did. Yahoo is acting as a news letter by promoting one SA author with just 65 followers. Yahoo turns this into 5 million eyes. SA should not be reported on Yahoo. The SA author is not complying with the SEC requirements for news letters-- not transacting in the stock before and after publishing, disclosing positions in SEC filings. The SA author appears to have less than $30 million under management. His analysis was just a rehash of already reported information. However, the Yahoo promotion magnified the effect.

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Mar 26, 2014 9:45 AM Flag

    Earning less on more sales. They expand into new product areas at huge expense. The answer is not new products. I would not be surprised if we go back to $4 as now the balance sheet is damaged. If we get into liquidity fear, it is all over.

  • Reply to

    Write the SEC

    by analyst112 Mar 20, 2014 1:22 PM
    analyst112 analyst112 Mar 21, 2014 9:48 AM Flag

    You can complain on SEC site under whistle blower. I did it.

  • analyst112 analyst112 Mar 21, 2014 9:47 AM Flag

    I sent a complaint to the SEC on SEC site. Yahoo is acting as a newsletter for SA and disregarding SEC rules. One person with 65 followers erases $100 million of market value rehashing old data a nd half truths. He is using Yahoo as a profit conduit and Yahoo is compliant.

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Mar 20, 2014 1:22 PM Flag

    Yahoo is acting as a newsletter for unknown blog writers in violation of the law. The SA author has 67 entities that receive his blog. Since Yahoo lists SA articles as news items, it is released to 5 million eyes. That is publishing in the eyes of the law. Newsletter publishers must abide by SEC restrictions on disclosure and trading activity. For example, writers cannot buy a position and then publish and then transact in the stock shortly thereafter. That is violates the law. I am writing the SEC with particulars in this case.

  • analyst112 analyst112 Mar 19, 2014 12:54 PM Flag

    You are wrong. SIR is undervalued and CWH will now kick out BOD and fire Portneys.

  • Reply to

    new owners of 44%

    by rfritz10 Mar 18, 2014 8:23 PM
    analyst112 analyst112 Mar 19, 2014 12:53 PM Flag

    The last 10Q says CWH ownership at 56%. Even at 44% the BOD will be removed and SIR will get revalued. The portnoys will be gone from other entities also like TA which is 4x cash flow--enough insider dealings.

  • Reply to

    Malaysia airline

    by chart_watcher99 Mar 11, 2014 3:26 PM
    analyst112 analyst112 Mar 19, 2014 11:45 AM Flag

    Orbcom can track all global flights with its new high power satellites to be launched next month. This is a big new market for them and no other provider can compete as they lack coverage.

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