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Federated National Holding Company Message Board

analyst112 72 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 2, 2015 3:50 PM Member since: Mar 30, 2000
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  • Reply to

    Serious Question for HC

    by tomandjanewright Mar 2, 2015 8:21 AM
    analyst112 analyst112 Mar 2, 2015 3:50 PM Flag

    They are spending $6B on rail capex in 2015--sink hole!! Wow 2% more profit! Ever hear of trucks. The rails only haul commodities like coal, oil, autos, grain. Good analysts look at P/CF not earnings-- . I have quit my day job and live in sunny Santa Barbara living on my stock market portfolio. How you doin'.

  • Reply to

    Kerrisdale

    by pennysavedpennygained Mar 2, 2015 1:29 PM
    analyst112 analyst112 Mar 2, 2015 2:23 PM Flag

    JP Morgan just gave it away--I think not. Pegging a value on some other overpriced value is lousy work at best. HSA accounts are very competitive. selling opportunity

  • Reply to

    2014 earnings very good

    by analyst112 Feb 5, 2015 10:19 AM
    analyst112 analyst112 Mar 2, 2015 1:21 PM Flag

    Earnings should grow 10% and the dividend yield is 2.7%. Dividends should continue to grow. History says they will raise div next quarter to $.60 rate. Total return then is 13% and stock is just 1.27x BV. We need faster revenue generation to get assets deployed. If they can deploy, earnings can double and dividends can double. The company is clearly worth more than 1.27x BV with todays earnings, excess capital and 11.5% ROE.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Serious Question for HC

    by tomandjanewright Mar 2, 2015 8:21 AM
    analyst112 analyst112 Mar 2, 2015 12:28 PM Flag

    Berkshire has made several mistakes in the last few years. The railroad is turning into a capital intensive sink hole. Common stock investments are lagging the overall market, and book value is now lagging. BV was up 1% in Q4. On the other hand BRKA is selling at 12x cash flow counting the float and 13.4 times operations --not real expensive but 50% higher than the SPX. Many investors underperformed last year and just threw money into BRK as the stock outperformed the SPX by a wide margin. Unfortunately, in a recession Warren is much more exposed to cyclical forces than ever before in its history so expect more volatility. Great letter but stock pretty full.

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Mar 2, 2015 11:07 AM Flag

    The way I see it eps were down 15% in Q4 in O/G and up 25% in air rescue. Unfortunately, this year will be a mess in O/G as flight volumes will be down significantly.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Feb 27, 2015 1:41 PM Flag

    They may cut the dividend. SLRC cut its dividend a while back and also managed by Gross. The Yield is 8.8% (not 9.2%) but if cut would be 6.6%. They cannot continue to pay out capital. I worry more about rising rates and then we get squeezed with more interest charges.

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Feb 27, 2015 1:11 PM Flag

    New investment income is $1.55 but capital losses are $.42/shr. Management is ripping us off for $.70/shr in fees and incentive fees. Net interest income was down 19% in 2014 and that is a bad trend. They cut the dividend once and they will do it again.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • $21 million of writeoffs offset by $7.8mm of income recapture. Earnings would have been up had it not been writedowns. Very conservative accounting. 1Q will be better as normal earnings should show and it is not that bad.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Feb 26, 2015 11:57 AM Flag

    They have 54MM of interest cost. They still have $100mm of cash flow at $50/bbl which they are using for capex. Report was not that bad. Their proved reserves are being valued at $18/bbl in the ground plus you get all unproved reserves, acreage, pipeline for free. This is well run family business with very good acreage and reserves plus 350 miles of pipeline.

  • analyst112 analyst112 Feb 24, 2015 2:30 PM Flag

    Full of #$%$ only insider selling

  • Reply to

    Will go bankrupt

    by analyst112 Feb 19, 2015 10:42 AM
    analyst112 analyst112 Feb 19, 2015 12:56 PM Flag

    I do not own-- who is the idiot. The CC was disaster. They said they would burn up the cash with "new business procurement' .

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Feb 19, 2015 11:30 AM Flag

    Small banks like NWIN yields 3.7% and CMOH yields 2.7% and are growing 12% in BV and will both increase dividends this year. Very illiquid stocks so you cannot trade them. At some point they will be acquired by a regional bank. Both selling at BV earning both earning 1% ROA and 10% ROE. They should be selling at 1.4x BV.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Feb 19, 2015 11:28 AM Flag

    Small banks like NWIN yields 3.7% and CMOH yields 2.7% and are growing 12% in BV and will both increase dividends this year. Very illiquid stocks so you cannot trade them. At some point they will be acquired by a regional bank. Both selling at BV earning both earning 1% ROA and 10% ROE. They should be selling at 1.4x BV.

  • Reply to

    can anyone tell me whats happening here today

    by buythisdog Dec 15, 2014 2:12 PM
    analyst112 analyst112 Feb 19, 2015 11:24 AM Flag

    2015 guidance was less than expected. Basically no growth in FFO which means no Div increase. They said mid year that projects got deferred. Clearly there is weakness in rent increases and renewals. I fear this whole cloud and working at home trend can impact office space in the same way it is impacting retail. Time to leave this stock for greener fields.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Feb 19, 2015 10:42 AM Flag

    Nobody wants the platform. That is a scary report. It is old tech. Mobile simply is better and more secure than Wi-Fi. They are burning $16MM/yr which means they have 6 quarters left. If the Board had any sense, they would dividend out most of the cash so shareholders do not end up with zero. As I noted on Feb 6, IPAS worth $1. Now revised to worthless.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • They forgot to sell the 43% interest in UCP. It is now only worth $1.40/shr. They cannot sell it now as housing stocks are out of favor and UCP is unprofitable and illiquid. It is chap 11 in next housing downturn. Mindjet interest is maybe worth $1.00/shr and Canola is worth maybe $1. AG is carried at $7.15/shr and that means a writeoff of $6/shr. BV is a fiction. The cash on the BS and misc is a generous $4/shr and was down about 25% last year as public stocks they owned dropped in value (while the stock market was up 13%) . That leaves the water asset which has a present value of about $5/shr. It's value is growing at about 4% but a buyer would put a 15% discount rate on that. That all adds up to $12/shr but MGT is taking $3.6MM per year in comp. I will look at it again at $11/shr. where it will surely go. Your money. This company is worth following as an HBS study of poor management. You might also note the major holders and avoid their mutual funds as they are just as dumb. I follow this because Hart was portrayed to me as a great investor. Yike! If you see errors in my work, let me know.

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Feb 18, 2015 12:01 PM Flag

    $20MM of cash flow and $350MM of EV. Should be selling at 13x CF or $22/shr. The market price will adjust over time. 2Q 2105 will have trans Profit out. Also mining is still 20% of cash flow and is tied to building cycle.

  • Down 5% in january. Huge Dupont NM plant comes online in January 2016. China TiO2 is getting better and most see little difference. Typical commodity business. No hope here.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Unlike most suits this one details nondisclosure of pre IPO facts. This is actionable as the company did not disclose material information. Gotta fess up when you do a prospectus.

  • Reply to

    IPAS only worth $1/shr

    by analyst112 Feb 4, 2015 11:47 AM
    analyst112 analyst112 Feb 5, 2015 2:41 PM Flag

    There is no upside. They should have distributed the Unity proceeds but knowing that they would need $4-5MM per quarter for burn, they kept it. There is no reason for Boingo to even buy the customers. My Verizon 4G phone has upload speed of 3MB and download of 48MB with two bar reception. That is 8x faster than my Wi-Fi connection. Wi-Fi is near dead with 4G.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

FNHC
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