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Federated National Holding Company Message Board

analyst112 74 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 27, 2015 1:41 PM Member since: Mar 30, 2000
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  • analyst112 by analyst112 Feb 27, 2015 1:41 PM Flag

    They may cut the dividend. SLRC cut its dividend a while back and also managed by Gross. The Yield is 8.8% (not 9.2%) but if cut would be 6.6%. They cannot continue to pay out capital. I worry more about rising rates and then we get squeezed with more interest charges.

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Feb 27, 2015 1:11 PM Flag

    New investment income is $1.55 but capital losses are $.42/shr. Management is ripping us off for $.70/shr in fees and incentive fees. Net interest income was down 19% in 2014 and that is a bad trend. They cut the dividend once and they will do it again.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • $21 million of writeoffs offset by $7.8mm of income recapture. Earnings would have been up had it not been writedowns. Very conservative accounting. 1Q will be better as normal earnings should show and it is not that bad.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Feb 26, 2015 11:57 AM Flag

    They have 54MM of interest cost. They still have $100mm of cash flow at $50/bbl which they are using for capex. Report was not that bad. Their proved reserves are being valued at $18/bbl in the ground plus you get all unproved reserves, acreage, pipeline for free. This is well run family business with very good acreage and reserves plus 350 miles of pipeline.

  • analyst112 analyst112 Feb 24, 2015 2:30 PM Flag

    Full of #$%$ only insider selling

  • Reply to

    Will go bankrupt

    by analyst112 Feb 19, 2015 10:42 AM
    analyst112 analyst112 Feb 19, 2015 12:56 PM Flag

    I do not own-- who is the idiot. The CC was disaster. They said they would burn up the cash with "new business procurement' .

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Feb 19, 2015 11:30 AM Flag

    Small banks like NWIN yields 3.7% and CMOH yields 2.7% and are growing 12% in BV and will both increase dividends this year. Very illiquid stocks so you cannot trade them. At some point they will be acquired by a regional bank. Both selling at BV earning both earning 1% ROA and 10% ROE. They should be selling at 1.4x BV.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Feb 19, 2015 11:28 AM Flag

    Small banks like NWIN yields 3.7% and CMOH yields 2.7% and are growing 12% in BV and will both increase dividends this year. Very illiquid stocks so you cannot trade them. At some point they will be acquired by a regional bank. Both selling at BV earning both earning 1% ROA and 10% ROE. They should be selling at 1.4x BV.

  • Reply to

    can anyone tell me whats happening here today

    by buythisdog Dec 15, 2014 2:12 PM
    analyst112 analyst112 Feb 19, 2015 11:24 AM Flag

    2015 guidance was less than expected. Basically no growth in FFO which means no Div increase. They said mid year that projects got deferred. Clearly there is weakness in rent increases and renewals. I fear this whole cloud and working at home trend can impact office space in the same way it is impacting retail. Time to leave this stock for greener fields.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Feb 19, 2015 10:42 AM Flag

    Nobody wants the platform. That is a scary report. It is old tech. Mobile simply is better and more secure than Wi-Fi. They are burning $16MM/yr which means they have 6 quarters left. If the Board had any sense, they would dividend out most of the cash so shareholders do not end up with zero. As I noted on Feb 6, IPAS worth $1. Now revised to worthless.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • They forgot to sell the 43% interest in UCP. It is now only worth $1.40/shr. They cannot sell it now as housing stocks are out of favor and UCP is unprofitable and illiquid. It is chap 11 in next housing downturn. Mindjet interest is maybe worth $1.00/shr and Canola is worth maybe $1. AG is carried at $7.15/shr and that means a writeoff of $6/shr. BV is a fiction. The cash on the BS and misc is a generous $4/shr and was down about 25% last year as public stocks they owned dropped in value (while the stock market was up 13%) . That leaves the water asset which has a present value of about $5/shr. It's value is growing at about 4% but a buyer would put a 15% discount rate on that. That all adds up to $12/shr but MGT is taking $3.6MM per year in comp. I will look at it again at $11/shr. where it will surely go. Your money. This company is worth following as an HBS study of poor management. You might also note the major holders and avoid their mutual funds as they are just as dumb. I follow this because Hart was portrayed to me as a great investor. Yike! If you see errors in my work, let me know.

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Feb 18, 2015 12:01 PM Flag

    $20MM of cash flow and $350MM of EV. Should be selling at 13x CF or $22/shr. The market price will adjust over time. 2Q 2105 will have trans Profit out. Also mining is still 20% of cash flow and is tied to building cycle.

  • Down 5% in january. Huge Dupont NM plant comes online in January 2016. China TiO2 is getting better and most see little difference. Typical commodity business. No hope here.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Unlike most suits this one details nondisclosure of pre IPO facts. This is actionable as the company did not disclose material information. Gotta fess up when you do a prospectus.

  • Reply to

    IPAS only worth $1/shr

    by analyst112 Feb 4, 2015 11:47 AM
    analyst112 analyst112 Feb 5, 2015 2:41 PM Flag

    There is no upside. They should have distributed the Unity proceeds but knowing that they would need $4-5MM per quarter for burn, they kept it. There is no reason for Boingo to even buy the customers. My Verizon 4G phone has upload speed of 3MB and download of 48MB with two bar reception. That is 8x faster than my Wi-Fi connection. Wi-Fi is near dead with 4G.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Feb 5, 2015 2:08 PM Flag

    Little pricy here at $34.50. It is selling for more than a REIT valuation. Maybe folks are confused about the spin off. Maybe I can borrow some to short.

  • Reply to

    All I know is....

    by ampstock88 Jan 13, 2015 11:32 AM
    analyst112 analyst112 Feb 5, 2015 12:41 PM Flag

    Heath departures are usually noted. It seems he was dismissed. He was in his prime and owned 225,000 shares having bought more in april. I think you wait for the second shoe to drop and that will 4Q earnings or lack thereof. Seems dicey and they have had some growth missteps.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Feb 5, 2015 10:19 AM Flag

    Buying back stock. Retired 1.7% of outstanding stock and more in January. Still has 50% excess capital so earnings can double from here with no capital raise. They will raise div next quarter to $.60 for a 3.5% yield. Stock selling at only 10.3x this years earnings of $1.65 but earnings could be upside surprise as lease volume expands.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Warburg who created Laredo is getting it ready for sale. They own 56 million shares with a cost basis that is much lower than today's price. LPI's choice 250,000 gross acres in the permiam is very valuable. There is no hurry to sell as LPI is hedged clear into 2017 at $80 or higher and no debt is due until 2019. In today's market it should bring at least $23/shr. They are in discussions now for a partial sale that should net over $.5 billion. In 2015 the profit from hedges alone will be $1.3 billion with $.5B spent on capex. LPI sold off too much and is probably being accumulated by a stratigic buyer. Good luck to us. Next stop $15-16.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Feb 4, 2015 11:47 AM Flag

    They will burn $10 million of cash this quarter and last quarter. The franchise is almost worthless as smart phone access is everywhere. Smart phone wi-fi connection access via tablet and laptop makes IPAS obsolete. Smart phone personal hotspot is secure and free. IPAS missed the boat. They will be lucky to anything for the franchise.

FNHC
28.93-1.17(-3.89%)Feb 27 4:00 PMEST

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