Now selling at $1750/acre on enterprise value basis and $1240/acre on equity basis. Has not been this low in a while. This is the perfect inflation hedge--scarce assets growing 6% per year plus inflation plus dividend yield. 12% total return. Most of the divvy will be tax free.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
No news, no insider sales, no crash, no weather groundings. Keep eye on ball-- Obamacare nets them payment on some portion of the 40% of no-pays. All that floats to the bottom line. 18 PE for 30% grower.
Selling today. Grand total of $600,000 of stock traded last 2 days in US and AUS, which means lots of day traders. Company is rudderless and will head back down.
They did a financing of $10MM of debt at 9% that will not add to FFO. House of cards. Somehow they think grocery stores are immune from Amazon while consumers are now buying 30% of household consumables from Amazon, the most profitable part of grocery store sales.
Paying a dividend to get the stock up will not work. Dividend is not covered by FFO. They deferred $1/shr. in costs. Operating loss much bigger than shown. They have $2MM in cash and $50MM of real estate purchase indications for which they will need at least $10mm. It is certain they will need an equity offering. Last time at $4/shr but this time at $3/shr. One mis-step and they are toast. The dividend will be eliminated.
I think he is a good guy that got trapped by a really bad company. Oaktree also took all the stock leaving others in the cold--but saved it from banko.
Almost 100 million shares in last 24 hours. That is 10% of the company changing hands. The weak hands are out and the holders continue. Next week optimism will return and the miscommunication from company will clear up. Year .20-.27 excluding preferred. Will come in on target. EBITDA down due to preferred buyout. $600 million of cash flow and $4.5Billion value--7.5x. Company sitting duck for CVS to take out. We will get a 13G next week from Einhorn.
Compnay says Range ,.20-.27 ex pfd stock cost. Confusing release. They will hit the .24/shr estimate. Cash flow strong at $600 million with $420MM capex leaving $180MM for debt payoff. Good chance to add will rally back next week.