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Federated National Holding Company Message Board

analyst112 43 posts  |  Last Activity: 20 hours ago Member since: Mar 30, 2000
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  • analyst112 by analyst112 Jul 28, 2014 12:15 PM Flag

    Alibaba worth $33 at mid point of IPO after tax. Yahoo Japan worth $12/shr at current MV. If Alibaba IPO's at $200MM instead of $160, it adds $8/shr. Everything else in Yahoo is for free. No wonder it is an acquisition target. The core business is worth $7. Therefore NAV about $52-60/shr. Thanks Vikram for nice analysis of after tax NAV.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Jul 10, 2014 10:41 AM Flag

    Let's hope GOV keeps dropping. That will encourage activists to take a position. GOV is widely held and I do not think major shareholders think buying a conflicted stock at above market prices is a good idea. The BS is also levered enough that they cannot lever more to buy properities.

  • Reply to

    Great Quarterly Report

    by gerpac Aug 18, 2014 9:47 AM
    analyst112 analyst112 20 hours ago Flag

    ORBC will grow much faster with new sats. Global coverage with state of the art birds. Replacement cost of launch triple what they paid/contracted. The replacement cost of launch is $200 million and market cap is $340 million. ORBC will be a billion dollar company in a few years. In the meantime rolling at $22 million EBITDA rate.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • analyst112 by analyst112 May 29, 2014 10:24 AM Flag

    Parent CWH changes board and Portney will be out. Since CWH controls SIR and GOV we should see a Board change at SIR. The last offering was the last straw for conflicts. SIR did not need the money and Portney did it strictly for control and monetary issues for himself. TA will also be affected for the better. With the new Board at CWH, the last SIR proxy would have failed as well as the offering. SIR is approximately 25% undervalued relative to the REIT index so we have good upside.

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Jul 2, 2014 11:46 AM Flag

    They cannot overcome the massive interest payments to Oaktree and others at 12% or $17 million/year annual rate. They would have to increase sales by 40% just to overcome the interest payment. They would still be losing money at that point. They have a commodity business. The equity is a mere call option on survival. Unfortunately, the next downturn will finish them off. Oaktree will get what it deserves. They are carrying it in their funds at cost--get serious.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    launch for stock price

    by analyst112 Jun 23, 2014 11:35 AM
    analyst112 analyst112 Jun 27, 2014 10:26 AM Flag

    ORBC will have to depreciated the birds and this non-cash charge is a deduction from earnings. Cash flow will be up and strong and that is what counts.

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Jul 28, 2014 10:56 AM Flag

    They are cash flow breakeven. Even if they lose the legal suit and have to pay royalities, they are worth more than $75 million, the current price. For a company that is the dominant provider of what is becoming an essential service, they are worth $ 1 billion+. The banks are savings millions with fewer tellers and fewer branches for a measly $.10 per check. MITK is cornering the market and will restructure their fees. Profits will soar as banks must have the service. Another possible outcome is Thornton will sell the company. USAA may also settle with MITK. There are a lot of things that can go right and we are burning much less cash.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Jul 7, 2014 11:12 AM Flag

    Amazon and Alibaba are siphoning off marginal sales. Items with long lead times are being picked up by Aliexpress. Amazon is also getting orders for immediate company needed items in several catagories. This will soften sales growth and be a big impact in a downturn. Beware.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Jul 24, 2014 2:40 PM Flag

    will be fine. Portfolio has not changed much. Relax.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Jul 24, 2014 11:28 AM Flag

    GOV has no/few escalators in its leases. It is dead meat in inflation as rates rise and they cannot raise lease rates. In addition GOV shareholders just got diluted 25%. Good REITS do not have continual offerings--they hoard their equity. The Portnoys are awful greedy people who are taking GOV's profits in fees. They get more fee money as GOV does deals and they own almost no stock. The only hope is an activist does a proxy fight to kick them out. Problem is GOV is not cheap. Avoid this REIT.

    They now own 40% of SIR after the recent purchase. They need the SIR dividends to pay dividends on GOV stock. Therefore SIR's low payout ratio should increase and dividends will rise. SIR is a much better bet than GOV and yields 6.8%.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Jul 3, 2014 1:10 PM Flag

    We use 50 million pounds a year so do the math on the EPA phaseout schedule.
    What the EPA is calling its “preferred HCFC-22 consumption allocation for 2015-2019” shows a production allowance of 30 million pounds in 2015, 24 million pounds in 2016, 18 million pounds in 2017, 12 million pounds in 2018, 6 million pounds in 2019, and zero in 2020. If you believe in economics, prices will rise to meet supply reductions. The production decline in 2015 is 22 million pounds over 2014 and that is 6 months from now. The price rise could be dramatic. Reclaimed product prices are the only game in town after 2019 so guess what kind of prices we will see. Hudson will be $20/shr on $2.00 of earnings or higher.

  • analyst112 analyst112 May 22, 2014 12:28 PM Flag

    Unfortunately, it is all over. We had a huge position in the company and recently sold all shares. You are right on the money. They will be out of money in Q4 and the asset sale will be for very little as the business is BE according to CC. They have been through to Windows cycles and no traction. I consider it a gift that I can get $1.20/shr because I think it will be $.50 in 9 months. The two hedge funds are in serious trouble.

  • Reply to

    I Asked

    by plpjap Jul 2, 2014 1:20 PM
    analyst112 analyst112 Jul 2, 2014 3:45 PM Flag

    It is on its way to $30/lb. Suggest your boss lay in a 5 year supply. With phaseout close, the reclaimed Hudson R-22 is the only game in town.

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Jun 23, 2014 11:35 AM Flag

    If you own this because they are launching, you are sure a dumb as. ORBC's new birds will be the most powerful, broadest coverage units in the sky. The business is growing 15%/year and Iridium is the only competitor. Iridium's birds are not new gen, It will also cost them $20 million each to get them up and so their costs will be higher than ORBC whose birds will cost $7MM each to launch. ORBC will be a big company with fixed costs so all revs will fall to the bottom line.

    It is frustrating that Spacex Falcon 9 is having so much trouble but better safe than sorry. (ORBC has launch insurance also)There is no question that they will be in orbit soon as they have priority loading. To buy this stock as a day trade on launch is just dumb. Are there that many stupid people out there?

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Jul 17, 2014 3:26 PM Flag

    We know they will sell the company for 2.5x BV ($32-35) but we do not know when. Maybe now.

  • Reply to

    News. Anything?

    by invest.or2013 Jul 16, 2014 9:48 AM
    analyst112 analyst112 Jul 17, 2014 1:16 PM Flag

    It's no mystery. The business model failed. They will lose $6MM from ops in the June qtr and another $6MM in Sept. There will be no dividend for sure.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    New breathing room; now expand into iOt

    by drainwire Jul 1, 2014 8:40 AM
    analyst112 analyst112 Jul 1, 2014 3:41 PM Flag

    They will now burn cash at $6MM/qtr as they lost cash flow. They are becoming irrrevelent and we have been through two windows cycles. I view this as a lucky opportunity to exit.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    launch for stock price

    by analyst112 Jun 23, 2014 11:35 AM
    analyst112 analyst112 Jun 23, 2014 1:32 PM Flag

    IDSY is not in their league nor is Skybitz or Numerex. Old tech-- ship location, train asset location and oil field assets, etc not amenable to cellular. ORBC also global footprint.

  • Reply to

    One More Thank You

    by i_is_po Jul 16, 2014 5:58 PM
    analyst112 analyst112 Jul 17, 2014 12:40 PM Flag

    Faison started Jan 10, 2011. He was there, so guilty as charged. It is the BOD who was really stupid. Most BOD just want to keep their pay and options going and have really bad judgement. Witness Time Warner buying AOL. Well those Pulse options did not pan out so well.

  • Reply to

    BRKA is very risky here

    by analyst112 Jul 1, 2014 2:02 PM
    analyst112 analyst112 Jul 2, 2014 10:26 AM Flag

    Biotech is the future of medicine. He owns a Dialysis company for the cash flow and it is vulnerable to Gov reimbursement. IBM is old tech. He has a big cash flow portfolio with little growth.

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