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Federated National Holding Company Message Board

analyst112 36 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 24, 2014 2:40 PM Member since: Mar 30, 2000
  • Reply to

    New breathing room; now expand into iOt

    by drainwire Jul 1, 2014 8:40 AM
    analyst112 analyst112 Jul 1, 2014 3:41 PM Flag

    They will now burn cash at $6MM/qtr as they lost cash flow. They are becoming irrrevelent and we have been through two windows cycles. I view this as a lucky opportunity to exit.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • They are saddled with yesterday's portfolio---soft drinks, ice cream,household goods and railroads. They have no technology investments and little health care. They should underperform the S&P 500 on the way up and are vulnerable in a recession as their industrials are cyclical. You are much better off in an index fund.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Jun 27, 2014 12:17 PM Flag

    If you subtract 2x current liabilities form current assets you get $6.65 of excess cash/share. The stock is selling at 5.5x EBITDA and 7.5x cash flow at $24.40. Capex is winding down after plant consolidations. UFPT is a sitting duck for a PE takeout at 8x EBITDA or $33/shr. In the meantime, we are building cash at $1.50/shr per year. If they get lucky and make a big acquisition, it could add $.70/shr to earnings.

    It is truly unfortunate that they do not buy back stock when it gets cheap like this. I cannot understand why not and I have asked them. Somehow they think they need more float.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    launch for stock price

    by analyst112 Jun 23, 2014 11:35 AM
    analyst112 analyst112 Jun 27, 2014 10:26 AM Flag

    ORBC will have to depreciated the birds and this non-cash charge is a deduction from earnings. Cash flow will be up and strong and that is what counts.

  • Reply to

    launch for stock price

    by analyst112 Jun 23, 2014 11:35 AM
    analyst112 analyst112 Jun 23, 2014 1:32 PM Flag

    IDSY is not in their league nor is Skybitz or Numerex. Old tech-- ship location, train asset location and oil field assets, etc not amenable to cellular. ORBC also global footprint.

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Jun 23, 2014 11:35 AM Flag

    If you own this because they are launching, you are sure a dumb as. ORBC's new birds will be the most powerful, broadest coverage units in the sky. The business is growing 15%/year and Iridium is the only competitor. Iridium's birds are not new gen, It will also cost them $20 million each to get them up and so their costs will be higher than ORBC whose birds will cost $7MM each to launch. ORBC will be a big company with fixed costs so all revs will fall to the bottom line.

    It is frustrating that Spacex Falcon 9 is having so much trouble but better safe than sorry. (ORBC has launch insurance also)There is no question that they will be in orbit soon as they have priority loading. To buy this stock as a day trade on launch is just dumb. Are there that many stupid people out there?

  • analyst112 by analyst112 May 29, 2014 10:24 AM Flag

    Parent CWH changes board and Portney et.al. will be out. Since CWH controls SIR and GOV we should see a Board change at SIR. The last offering was the last straw for conflicts. SIR did not need the money and Portney did it strictly for control and monetary issues for himself. TA will also be affected for the better. With the new Board at CWH, the last SIR proxy would have failed as well as the offering. SIR is approximately 25% undervalued relative to the REIT index so we have good upside.

  • analyst112 analyst112 May 22, 2014 12:28 PM Flag

    Unfortunately, it is all over. We had a huge position in the company and recently sold all shares. You are right on the money. They will be out of money in Q4 and the asset sale will be for very little as the business is BE according to CC. They have been through to Windows cycles and no traction. I consider it a gift that I can get $1.20/shr because I think it will be $.50 in 9 months. The two hedge funds are in serious trouble.

  • analyst112 by analyst112 May 13, 2014 11:30 AM Flag

    ROE 23%, ROA 8% growing at 25% with Affordable Care Act tailwind. Only 13.6 x earnings for 25% growth. The growth is in new reimbursements from ACA. 40% of trips are either not paid or paid at Medicaid rates. ACA will pay at Medicare scheduled rates. This is all found money for AIRM which fall to the bottom line. AIRM always has highly volitile 1Q's due to weather. This provides a buying opportunity. The 20% short interest will provide a short covering opportunity. AIRM will sell out to private equity at some point as cash flows are very high and stable. PHII is another company with a medical evac sub that will be acquired.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • analyst112 by analyst112 May 13, 2014 10:31 AM Flag

    Revs down, earnings down, EBITDA down. What 's to like here--clearly lost momentum. Forecast of .earnings weak and only $.06-.10/shr. I want to see progress.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • analyst112 by analyst112 May 7, 2014 12:38 PM Flag

    Good news-- $4 million in costs gone. Focus on the big picture---wound care--huge market

  • analyst112 by analyst112 May 7, 2014 10:07 AM Flag

    Less overhead, higher margins, better locations and CEO just bought $650,000 worth adding 11% to his holdings along with two other insiders. Does not sound like they have WFM issues.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • CSE is earning less than PACW and ended up with 55% of the combined company plus a slug of cash. What is PACW thinking? This could take us back to $28/shr. There are now 100 million shares out. CSE is not a good fit or good franchise.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Patents at risk

    by analyst112 Apr 30, 2014 10:09 AM
    analyst112 analyst112 May 1, 2014 11:13 AM Flag

    May go to $200 if they uphold but will go to $80 if Natco wins. I say it is trading as if CELG has won.

  • analyst112 by analyst112 May 1, 2014 9:28 AM Flag

    Earnings very good again and up 38% from 4Q. No issues with delinquencies or volumes. Earning at $1.50 rate. They could raise the dividend to $.30/qtr form $.11 as they have no need for added capital. Yield now 2.6%. Stock very cheap at 9x next year's earnings. Still believe they will sell out at $50 in a few years.

    Cannot explain the stock price decline. It must be one of the hedge funds liquidating. They must have expected a bad quarter or maybe the fund is liquidating. Great buying opportunity.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Apr 30, 2014 10:09 AM Flag

    If Natco (Activis) prevails in the patent litigation against CELG, the stock will crater. Revlimid is $5 billion in sales for CELG or 65%. Even if they win at the lower level, Activis will appeal. Companies with patent suits on their major drug are dangerous places to be. CELG other drug are years away from approval.

FNHC
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