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Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc. Message Board

analyst112 36 posts  |  Last Activity: 23 hours ago Member since: Mar 30, 2000
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  • analyst112 by analyst112 23 hours ago Flag

    will be fine. Portfolio has not changed much. Relax.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Div boost due to GOV

    by sage533 Jul 11, 2014 3:25 PM
    analyst112 analyst112 Jul 24, 2014 11:32 AM Flag

    The Portnoys will be incentivized to raise dividends to fund the GOV dividend. SIR's payout ratio is also lower than average so some room for divvy raises. GOV is apiece of junk --Avoid.

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Jul 24, 2014 11:28 AM Flag

    GOV has no/few escalators in its leases. It is dead meat in inflation as rates rise and they cannot raise lease rates. In addition GOV shareholders just got diluted 25%. Good REITS do not have continual offerings--they hoard their equity. The Portnoys are awful greedy people who are taking GOV's profits in fees. They get more fee money as GOV does deals and they own almost no stock. The only hope is an activist does a proxy fight to kick them out. Problem is GOV is not cheap. Avoid this REIT.

    They now own 40% of SIR after the recent purchase. They need the SIR dividends to pay dividends on GOV stock. Therefore SIR's low payout ratio should increase and dividends will rise. SIR is a much better bet than GOV and yields 6.8%.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Continues awful

    by analyst112 Jul 23, 2014 12:48 PM
    analyst112 analyst112 Jul 23, 2014 12:59 PM Flag

    Even the directors dump their stock. Hart lives it up at the LaJolla Beach and Tennis Club having pretty much retired or fired all the disloyal employees and loads the Board with cronies. No activist would touch this as there is no value. The Ag business is worth zero or a $3/shr writeoff. UCP is losing big money in a robust housing cycle. That is another $5/shr writeoff in the near future.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Jul 23, 2014 12:48 PM Flag

    The management is slowly sucking all the value into their own pockets. Outrageous salaries and hardly any stock ownership. The Canola plant is the all time stupid investment. UCP is a 2nd rate home builder. I do not see how they can realize on the investment as home builders in general are out of favor as the cycle matures. The water is valuable but the present value keeps declining as the discount rate rises and the resource rises slower in value. This had such promise at one time but lacks any catalyst. CEO Hart takes $2.3 million in salary and owns 34,000 shares after 20 years. He sells all he gets as options. Avoid this awful company.

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Jul 18, 2014 10:55 AM Flag

    Will result in reduction of $150 billion of debt for GE. GE balance sheet will look very good with total debt down to $170 billion. It will also result in a 7.5% dividend as they will distribute $20 billion of stock to us. The appliance sale will result in a dividend increase to $.25 (up from $.22 today) so stock today yields 3.8% on that new dividend. The stock buyback of $5 billion shrinks the cap 2% with earnings higher as a result. There are a lot of moving parts but the jet engine business and power are the gold.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Jul 17, 2014 3:26 PM Flag

    We know they will sell the company for 2.5x BV ($32-35) but we do not know when. Maybe now.

  • Reply to

    News. Anything?

    by invest.or2013 Jul 16, 2014 9:48 AM
    analyst112 analyst112 Jul 17, 2014 1:16 PM Flag

    It's no mystery. The business model failed. They will lose $6MM from ops in the June qtr and another $6MM in Sept. There will be no dividend for sure.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    One More Thank You

    by i_is_po Jul 16, 2014 5:58 PM
    analyst112 analyst112 Jul 17, 2014 12:40 PM Flag

    Faison started Jan 10, 2011. He was there, so guilty as charged. It is the BOD who was really stupid. Most BOD just want to keep their pay and options going and have really bad judgement. Witness Time Warner buying AOL. Well those Pulse options did not pan out so well.

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Jul 17, 2014 12:30 PM Flag

    When that happens it is always followed by really bad news. They did not ask him to leave because things are going so well. Off to the pink sheets at $1

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Very cheap again

    by analyst112 Jun 27, 2014 12:17 PM
    analyst112 analyst112 Jul 14, 2014 3:18 PM Flag

    Because you had changes in receiveables and inventories cash flow is negative one quarter. Ongoing cash flow is $3.2 million, $2MM of NI and $1.1MM depreciation. Capex will wind down so cash will build again.

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Jul 14, 2014 11:28 AM Flag

    t+12 and engines in coast state. Ejection of birds later on. Spacex reports successful launch----about time!!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Jul 10, 2014 10:41 AM Flag

    Let's hope GOV keeps dropping. That will encourage activists to take a position. GOV is widely held and I do not think major shareholders think buying a conflicted stock at above market prices is a good idea. The BS is also levered enough that they cannot lever more to buy properities.

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Jul 7, 2014 11:12 AM Flag

    Amazon and Alibaba are siphoning off marginal sales. Items with long lead times are being picked up by Aliexpress. Amazon is also getting orders for immediate company needed items in several catagories. This will soften sales growth and be a big impact in a downturn. Beware.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Jul 3, 2014 1:10 PM Flag

    We use 50 million pounds a year so do the math on the EPA phaseout schedule.
    What the EPA is calling its “preferred HCFC-22 consumption allocation for 2015-2019” shows a production allowance of 30 million pounds in 2015, 24 million pounds in 2016, 18 million pounds in 2017, 12 million pounds in 2018, 6 million pounds in 2019, and zero in 2020. If you believe in economics, prices will rise to meet supply reductions. The production decline in 2015 is 22 million pounds over 2014 and that is 6 months from now. The price rise could be dramatic. Reclaimed product prices are the only game in town after 2019 so guess what kind of prices we will see. Hudson will be $20/shr on $2.00 of earnings or higher.

  • analyst112 analyst112 Jul 3, 2014 12:55 PM Flag

    Yeh--but base business losing $23million annually or $.33. It is not a viable business as they have been passed by other providers including cellular alternatives. It did not work!!

  • Reply to

    I Asked

    by plpjap Jul 2, 2014 1:20 PM
    analyst112 analyst112 Jul 2, 2014 3:45 PM Flag

    It is on its way to $30/lb. Suggest your boss lay in a 5 year supply. With phaseout close, the reclaimed Hudson R-22 is the only game in town.

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Jul 2, 2014 11:46 AM Flag

    They cannot overcome the massive interest payments to Oaktree and others at 12% or $17 million/year annual rate. They would have to increase sales by 40% just to overcome the interest payment. They would still be losing money at that point. They have a commodity business. The equity is a mere call option on survival. Unfortunately, the next downturn will finish them off. Oaktree will get what it deserves. They are carrying it in their funds at cost--get serious.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    BRKA is very risky here

    by analyst112 Jul 1, 2014 2:02 PM
    analyst112 analyst112 Jul 2, 2014 10:27 AM Flag

    No question it is a cash flow engine but slow growth. Banks and insurance are still on the mend so good upside still, but after that what. He never sells because of taxes.

  • Reply to

    BRKA is very risky here

    by analyst112 Jul 1, 2014 2:02 PM
    analyst112 analyst112 Jul 2, 2014 10:26 AM Flag

    Biotech is the future of medicine. He owns a Dialysis company for the cash flow and it is vulnerable to Gov reimbursement. IBM is old tech. He has a big cash flow portfolio with little growth.

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