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OneBeacon Insurance Group, Ltd. Message Board

analyst112 93 posts  |  Last Activity: 12 hours ago Member since: Mar 30, 2000
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  • analyst112 analyst112 12 hours ago Flag

    He did not say 27 pence--27 cents.

  • analyst112 analyst112 12 hours ago Flag

    He bid $.27. He would not buy it here. He has been dead wrong on this. With VISA exiting you have to wonder about the concept.

  • The supply is gone. Any buying will now squeeze the shorts and lever the price upward.

  • Reply to

    SPIN OFF

    by analyst112 Sep 4, 2014 2:42 PM
    analyst112 analyst112 13 hours ago Flag

    They have prime RE around DC and are building more. The Riverfront project is big at $90MM and they own 70%. It is a large apartment/retail building. The land contributed was worth 120% of cost. Thye have a lot of hidden value on top of the $36/shr. I valued the RE and mining royalty as a function of BV and FFO after tax. At a 6.5% cap rate, the RE is worth $36. When they convert to a REIT the valuation will be just FFO and could be a lower cap rate and higher price. They are a growth company and this is the family's inflation hedge. THey are also under leveraged with just $50MM of mortgage debt. If the trucking company is worth $6/shr then we are undervalued. With a REIT conversion, they would have to pay a $7.70 one time dividend.

  • Reply to

    Are we there yet??? Up $.42/shr

    by whey2play Oct 16, 2014 12:52 PM
    analyst112 analyst112 Oct 17, 2014 11:48 AM Flag

    The middle man like Fiserv charges banks $.50/check and Mitek gets $.10. That is about to change. Mitek can now raise prices as it is embedded in banks PR and OPS. There is no other provider at this time and Mitek has sold software to 1/3 of the U.S. banking industry.

  • analyst112 analyst112 Oct 17, 2014 11:37 AM Flag

    The new owners are investors. All the short term money and traders have been flushed out. That means the stock is under accumulation and will march higher. The shorts will try to pound the stock to shake free shares so they can cover. Unfortunately for them there is not enough tradeable shares until we get back to $5-6 area. They need 4 million shares. Their bet is Mitek is some sort of promotion. I have met with Mitek twice and this is the real deal.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Demise of Pulse

    by bridgejumper08 Oct 15, 2014 4:15 AM
    analyst112 analyst112 Oct 16, 2014 11:37 AM Flag

    worthless stock. The new director, John Major, received his stock at $2.88 and now $.88. He had to pay $1.32 in tax (ordinary income) on that so he is in the hole $.44/shr even though he got it free. Stock will be taxed loss sold to $.25/shr.

  • Reply to

    Ready to launch

    by sage533 Oct 16, 2014 10:47 AM
    analyst112 analyst112 Oct 16, 2014 11:11 AM Flag

    Does not feel so good when 100 offered at $2.18 when you are short

  • His portfolio is in the tank. Banks, financial, housing, oil transportation and leveraged. Back to 170,000

  • Reply to

    no shorts, no buyers

    by analyst112 Oct 14, 2014 9:55 AM
    analyst112 analyst112 Oct 14, 2014 12:10 PM Flag

    They will not be interested until it is $10/shr as they cannot get any sizable position. It is too small now. 200,000 shares is only $380,000. This is an individual stock. Note that 8mm shares do not trade as they are held by insiders and two funds so the whole float is worth $42MM--micro Micro cap. This is all good because one can build a position now and get the upside. Plus there are 4MM shares short so that is built in buying. This is a real deal company. I have met with them.

    I have been a portfolio manager for many years doing small and micocaps. Sometimes a little company comes along that has the potential for big upside. Sure it is always dicey but Mitek has a product (plus 3 other add on products) that they are selling and it is demanded by the market, no competitors yet, recurring revenue, excess cash on BS and soon to be cash flow positive. I think they also have the ability to raise prices 10-20% per year. Obviously the valuation is attractive.

    Number one rule of investing --don't lose your money, #2 rule don't forget #1, #3 patience.

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Oct 14, 2014 9:55 AM Flag

    Nobody in their right mind would short this at $1.90. More likely shorts are covering. There are just no buyers given the 4th quarter legal and severance loss to be reported mid November. This is just too small for any institutional investor and any left in it are blowing it out to 1) get it off the books 2) take the loss. This will build a base and then we will march from there. I think we are at that base right now. It moves $.10/shr on 10,000 shares worth $19,000. Get serious that is not going to get any institution interested.
    This is a solid company. I have called several banks and spoke with CFO's. There is no other provider and it is embedded in their customers who now demand Mobile Deposit. They will be profitable in Q1 ending December. The tone will change and we will head North. Do not fear.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    I have 50k shares at

    by bidpitch1 Oct 13, 2014 11:41 AM
    analyst112 analyst112 Oct 13, 2014 1:14 PM Flag

    Earnings will not be good with all the costs but 1Q will be big. Don't sell it as it is a 10 bagger.

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Oct 13, 2014 1:02 PM Flag

    They will sell Tanzact for a $1 billion in 3 years. They did it before with Esurance. If so, that is $166/shr. They have shrunk the number of shares To 6MM with periodic tenders---

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    What's UP?

    by ekretiree01 Oct 13, 2014 11:41 AM
    analyst112 analyst112 Oct 13, 2014 12:23 PM Flag

    There are young guns running small cap portfolios. They are getting redeemed and they just dump under performers. That is what creates bottoms. The fundamentals are good at MITEK so that gives me confidence to add.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Chance to buy this blue chip. Good yield and fast growing dividend. As energy prices decline, it increases throughput in its pipelines. It does not have reserves. Sell off is being done by a computer.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Sep 30, 2014 11:12 AM Flag

    How is it possible that the leading company in a business that is becoming an essential service can only be worth $50 million? That is crazy. There are plenty of companies that would be interested in acquiring MITK--Fiserv, AMEX, ADP. However, we do not want to be acquired as we have 20x upside. There are not many tech companies with such good risk reward. I think the market cap is so small that no investment funds are interested. It is Micro micro-cap. That will change.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Sep 30, 2014 10:53 AM Flag

    They did not pay income tax last year. This quarter the tax rate was 45% as it paid to catch up taxes. (fed rate is 34%). I only care about EBITDAR and that was up nicely. Revs good, margins good, expenses in line. Headline number is what traders focus on but report is good and the stock will trend up to $13-$15.

    Should not be selling at 5.2x EBITDA. At 8x EBITDA, it would be $18 where it will go in the next year.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Dump this awful holding

    by analyst112 Aug 21, 2014 11:07 AM
    analyst112 analyst112 Sep 29, 2014 12:19 PM Flag

    Unfortunately you are wrong. The lease renewals are at modest increases at the end of the term and nothing on an annual basis. In the e meantime they get net income squeezed by rising rates. This is an awful REIT managed by a group not aligned to shareholders.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • analyst112 analyst112 Sep 29, 2014 12:11 PM Flag

    One must anticipate changes in cap rates and bond rates. The leases do not float but debt service costs rise, squeezing net income. Over 20 years as leases all roll it is a good inflation hedge but not in the short run. This REIT should be $17.

  • Reply to

    Ultimate Dead Money

    by analyst112 Sep 3, 2014 2:55 PM
    analyst112 analyst112 Sep 29, 2014 12:05 PM Flag

    They own 23,000 acres sloping to the beach with 10 miles of shoreline. The land will be put in conservation trust and stock holders will be bag holders.

OB
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