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OneBeacon Insurance Group, Ltd. Message Board

analyst112 28 posts  |  Last Activity: 2 hours 59 minutes ago Member since: Mar 30, 2000
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  • analyst112 by analyst112 2 hours 59 minutes ago Flag

    Let's hope GOV keeps dropping. That will encourage activists to take a position. GOV is widely held and I do not think major shareholders think buying a conflicted stock at above market prices is a good idea. The BS is also levered enough that they cannot lever more to buy properities.

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Jul 7, 2014 11:12 AM Flag

    Amazon and Alibaba are siphoning off marginal sales. Items with long lead times are being picked up by Aliexpress. Amazon is also getting orders for immediate company needed items in several catagories. This will soften sales growth and be a big impact in a downturn. Beware.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Jul 3, 2014 1:10 PM Flag

    We use 50 million pounds a year so do the math on the EPA phaseout schedule.
    What the EPA is calling its “preferred HCFC-22 consumption allocation for 2015-2019” shows a production allowance of 30 million pounds in 2015, 24 million pounds in 2016, 18 million pounds in 2017, 12 million pounds in 2018, 6 million pounds in 2019, and zero in 2020. If you believe in economics, prices will rise to meet supply reductions. The production decline in 2015 is 22 million pounds over 2014 and that is 6 months from now. The price rise could be dramatic. Reclaimed product prices are the only game in town after 2019 so guess what kind of prices we will see. Hudson will be $20/shr on $2.00 of earnings or higher.

  • analyst112 analyst112 Jul 3, 2014 12:55 PM Flag

    Yeh--but base business losing $23million annually or $.33. It is not a viable business as they have been passed by other providers including cellular alternatives. It did not work!!

  • Reply to

    I Asked

    by plpjap Jul 2, 2014 1:20 PM
    analyst112 analyst112 Jul 2, 2014 3:45 PM Flag

    It is on its way to $30/lb. Suggest your boss lay in a 5 year supply. With phaseout close, the reclaimed Hudson R-22 is the only game in town.

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Jul 2, 2014 11:46 AM Flag

    They cannot overcome the massive interest payments to Oaktree and others at 12% or $17 million/year annual rate. They would have to increase sales by 40% just to overcome the interest payment. They would still be losing money at that point. They have a commodity business. The equity is a mere call option on survival. Unfortunately, the next downturn will finish them off. Oaktree will get what it deserves. They are carrying it in their funds at cost--get serious.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    BRKA is very risky here

    by analyst112 Jul 1, 2014 2:02 PM
    analyst112 analyst112 Jul 2, 2014 10:27 AM Flag

    No question it is a cash flow engine but slow growth. Banks and insurance are still on the mend so good upside still, but after that what. He never sells because of taxes.

  • Reply to

    BRKA is very risky here

    by analyst112 Jul 1, 2014 2:02 PM
    analyst112 analyst112 Jul 2, 2014 10:26 AM Flag

    Biotech is the future of medicine. He owns a Dialysis company for the cash flow and it is vulnerable to Gov reimbursement. IBM is old tech. He has a big cash flow portfolio with little growth.

  • Reply to

    New breathing room; now expand into iOt

    by drainwire Jul 1, 2014 8:40 AM
    analyst112 analyst112 Jul 1, 2014 3:41 PM Flag

    They will now burn cash at $6MM/qtr as they lost cash flow. They are becoming irrrevelent and we have been through two windows cycles. I view this as a lucky opportunity to exit.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • They are saddled with yesterday's portfolio---soft drinks, ice cream,household goods and railroads. They have no technology investments and little health care. They should underperform the S&P 500 on the way up and are vulnerable in a recession as their industrials are cyclical. You are much better off in an index fund.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Jun 27, 2014 12:17 PM Flag

    If you subtract 2x current liabilities form current assets you get $6.65 of excess cash/share. The stock is selling at 5.5x EBITDA and 7.5x cash flow at $24.40. Capex is winding down after plant consolidations. UFPT is a sitting duck for a PE takeout at 8x EBITDA or $33/shr. In the meantime, we are building cash at $1.50/shr per year. If they get lucky and make a big acquisition, it could add $.70/shr to earnings.

    It is truly unfortunate that they do not buy back stock when it gets cheap like this. I cannot understand why not and I have asked them. Somehow they think they need more float.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    launch for stock price

    by analyst112 Jun 23, 2014 11:35 AM
    analyst112 analyst112 Jun 27, 2014 10:26 AM Flag

    ORBC will have to depreciated the birds and this non-cash charge is a deduction from earnings. Cash flow will be up and strong and that is what counts.

  • Reply to

    launch for stock price

    by analyst112 Jun 23, 2014 11:35 AM
    analyst112 analyst112 Jun 23, 2014 1:32 PM Flag

    IDSY is not in their league nor is Skybitz or Numerex. Old tech-- ship location, train asset location and oil field assets, etc not amenable to cellular. ORBC also global footprint.

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Jun 23, 2014 11:35 AM Flag

    If you own this because they are launching, you are sure a dumb as. ORBC's new birds will be the most powerful, broadest coverage units in the sky. The business is growing 15%/year and Iridium is the only competitor. Iridium's birds are not new gen, It will also cost them $20 million each to get them up and so their costs will be higher than ORBC whose birds will cost $7MM each to launch. ORBC will be a big company with fixed costs so all revs will fall to the bottom line.

    It is frustrating that Spacex Falcon 9 is having so much trouble but better safe than sorry. (ORBC has launch insurance also)There is no question that they will be in orbit soon as they have priority loading. To buy this stock as a day trade on launch is just dumb. Are there that many stupid people out there?

  • analyst112 by analyst112 May 29, 2014 10:24 AM Flag

    Parent CWH changes board and Portney et.al. will be out. Since CWH controls SIR and GOV we should see a Board change at SIR. The last offering was the last straw for conflicts. SIR did not need the money and Portney did it strictly for control and monetary issues for himself. TA will also be affected for the better. With the new Board at CWH, the last SIR proxy would have failed as well as the offering. SIR is approximately 25% undervalued relative to the REIT index so we have good upside.

  • analyst112 analyst112 May 22, 2014 12:28 PM Flag

    Unfortunately, it is all over. We had a huge position in the company and recently sold all shares. You are right on the money. They will be out of money in Q4 and the asset sale will be for very little as the business is BE according to CC. They have been through to Windows cycles and no traction. I consider it a gift that I can get $1.20/shr because I think it will be $.50 in 9 months. The two hedge funds are in serious trouble.

  • analyst112 by analyst112 May 13, 2014 11:30 AM Flag

    ROE 23%, ROA 8% growing at 25% with Affordable Care Act tailwind. Only 13.6 x earnings for 25% growth. The growth is in new reimbursements from ACA. 40% of trips are either not paid or paid at Medicaid rates. ACA will pay at Medicare scheduled rates. This is all found money for AIRM which fall to the bottom line. AIRM always has highly volitile 1Q's due to weather. This provides a buying opportunity. The 20% short interest will provide a short covering opportunity. AIRM will sell out to private equity at some point as cash flows are very high and stable. PHII is another company with a medical evac sub that will be acquired.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • analyst112 by analyst112 May 13, 2014 10:31 AM Flag

    Revs down, earnings down, EBITDA down. What 's to like here--clearly lost momentum. Forecast of .earnings weak and only $.06-.10/shr. I want to see progress.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • analyst112 by analyst112 May 7, 2014 12:38 PM Flag

    Good news-- $4 million in costs gone. Focus on the big picture---wound care--huge market

  • analyst112 by analyst112 May 7, 2014 10:07 AM Flag

    Less overhead, higher margins, better locations and CEO just bought $650,000 worth adding 11% to his holdings along with two other insiders. Does not sound like they have WFM issues.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

OB
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