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OneBeacon Insurance Group, Ltd. Message Board

analyst112 52 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 25, 2014 2:12 PM Member since: Mar 30, 2000
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  • Reply to

    Berkshire buys WTM

    by analyst112 Aug 4, 2014 3:45 PM
    analyst112 analyst112 Aug 6, 2014 10:59 AM Flag

    John Byrnes estate owns 10.5% of WTM and they will probably sell. Muni insurance biz is a great niche and could be huge. SYA is a great hedge against rising interest rates. They have done well even in this environment. With Boomers retiring, annuities will be a growth area for 6-7 years. OB is a great income vehicle but when they lost Haggerty business, I checked out. It sells at 40% premium to BV so not a good acquisition candidate.

    Hanging on until $1200/shr when it is 1.5x book value in 2016.

  • Equity worth zero. The value of the ebitda is barely worth the debt outstanding. New CEO is not up to the task.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Aug 4, 2014 3:45 PM Flag

    Warren will make a pass at WTM. good portfolio fit and very cheap.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Jul 28, 2014 12:15 PM Flag

    Alibaba worth $33 at mid point of IPO after tax. Yahoo Japan worth $12/shr at current MV. If Alibaba IPO's at $200MM instead of $160, it adds $8/shr. Everything else in Yahoo is for free. No wonder it is an acquisition target. The core business is worth $7. Therefore NAV about $52-60/shr. Thanks Vikram for nice analysis of after tax NAV.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Jul 28, 2014 10:56 AM Flag

    They are cash flow breakeven. Even if they lose the legal suit and have to pay royalities, they are worth more than $75 million, the current price. For a company that is the dominant provider of what is becoming an essential service, they are worth $ 1 billion+. The banks are savings millions with fewer tellers and fewer branches for a measly $.10 per check. MITK is cornering the market and will restructure their fees. Profits will soar as banks must have the service. Another possible outcome is Thornton will sell the company. USAA may also settle with MITK. There are a lot of things that can go right and we are burning much less cash.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Jul 24, 2014 2:40 PM Flag

    will be fine. Portfolio has not changed much. Relax.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Div boost due to GOV

    by sage533 Jul 11, 2014 3:25 PM
    analyst112 analyst112 Jul 24, 2014 11:32 AM Flag

    The Portnoys will be incentivized to raise dividends to fund the GOV dividend. SIR's payout ratio is also lower than average so some room for divvy raises. GOV is apiece of junk --Avoid.

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Jul 24, 2014 11:28 AM Flag

    GOV has no/few escalators in its leases. It is dead meat in inflation as rates rise and they cannot raise lease rates. In addition GOV shareholders just got diluted 25%. Good REITS do not have continual offerings--they hoard their equity. The Portnoys are awful greedy people who are taking GOV's profits in fees. They get more fee money as GOV does deals and they own almost no stock. The only hope is an activist does a proxy fight to kick them out. Problem is GOV is not cheap. Avoid this REIT.

    They now own 40% of SIR after the recent purchase. They need the SIR dividends to pay dividends on GOV stock. Therefore SIR's low payout ratio should increase and dividends will rise. SIR is a much better bet than GOV and yields 6.8%.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Continues awful

    by analyst112 Jul 23, 2014 12:48 PM
    analyst112 analyst112 Jul 23, 2014 12:59 PM Flag

    Even the directors dump their stock. Hart lives it up at the LaJolla Beach and Tennis Club having pretty much retired or fired all the disloyal employees and loads the Board with cronies. No activist would touch this as there is no value. The Ag business is worth zero or a $3/shr writeoff. UCP is losing big money in a robust housing cycle. That is another $5/shr writeoff in the near future.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Jul 23, 2014 12:48 PM Flag

    The management is slowly sucking all the value into their own pockets. Outrageous salaries and hardly any stock ownership. The Canola plant is the all time stupid investment. UCP is a 2nd rate home builder. I do not see how they can realize on the investment as home builders in general are out of favor as the cycle matures. The water is valuable but the present value keeps declining as the discount rate rises and the resource rises slower in value. This had such promise at one time but lacks any catalyst. CEO Hart takes $2.3 million in salary and owns 34,000 shares after 20 years. He sells all he gets as options. Avoid this awful company.

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Jul 18, 2014 10:55 AM Flag

    Will result in reduction of $150 billion of debt for GE. GE balance sheet will look very good with total debt down to $170 billion. It will also result in a 7.5% dividend as they will distribute $20 billion of stock to us. The appliance sale will result in a dividend increase to $.25 (up from $.22 today) so stock today yields 3.8% on that new dividend. The stock buyback of $5 billion shrinks the cap 2% with earnings higher as a result. There are a lot of moving parts but the jet engine business and power are the gold.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Jul 17, 2014 3:26 PM Flag

    We know they will sell the company for 2.5x BV ($32-35) but we do not know when. Maybe now.

  • Reply to

    News. Anything?

    by invest.or2013 Jul 16, 2014 9:48 AM
    analyst112 analyst112 Jul 17, 2014 1:16 PM Flag

    It's no mystery. The business model failed. They will lose $6MM from ops in the June qtr and another $6MM in Sept. There will be no dividend for sure.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    One More Thank You

    by i_is_po Jul 16, 2014 5:58 PM
    analyst112 analyst112 Jul 17, 2014 12:40 PM Flag

    Faison started Jan 10, 2011. He was there, so guilty as charged. It is the BOD who was really stupid. Most BOD just want to keep their pay and options going and have really bad judgement. Witness Time Warner buying AOL. Well those Pulse options did not pan out so well.

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Jul 17, 2014 12:30 PM Flag

    When that happens it is always followed by really bad news. They did not ask him to leave because things are going so well. Off to the pink sheets at $1

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Very cheap again

    by analyst112 Jun 27, 2014 12:17 PM
    analyst112 analyst112 Jul 14, 2014 3:18 PM Flag

    Because you had changes in receiveables and inventories cash flow is negative one quarter. Ongoing cash flow is $3.2 million, $2MM of NI and $1.1MM depreciation. Capex will wind down so cash will build again.

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Jul 14, 2014 11:28 AM Flag

    t+12 and engines in coast state. Ejection of birds later on. Spacex reports successful launch----about time!!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Jul 10, 2014 10:41 AM Flag

    Let's hope GOV keeps dropping. That will encourage activists to take a position. GOV is widely held and I do not think major shareholders think buying a conflicted stock at above market prices is a good idea. The BS is also levered enough that they cannot lever more to buy properities.

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Jul 7, 2014 11:12 AM Flag

    Amazon and Alibaba are siphoning off marginal sales. Items with long lead times are being picked up by Aliexpress. Amazon is also getting orders for immediate company needed items in several catagories. This will soften sales growth and be a big impact in a downturn. Beware.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Jul 3, 2014 1:10 PM Flag

    We use 50 million pounds a year so do the math on the EPA phaseout schedule.
    What the EPA is calling its “preferred HCFC-22 consumption allocation for 2015-2019” shows a production allowance of 30 million pounds in 2015, 24 million pounds in 2016, 18 million pounds in 2017, 12 million pounds in 2018, 6 million pounds in 2019, and zero in 2020. If you believe in economics, prices will rise to meet supply reductions. The production decline in 2015 is 22 million pounds over 2014 and that is 6 months from now. The price rise could be dramatic. Reclaimed product prices are the only game in town after 2019 so guess what kind of prices we will see. Hudson will be $20/shr on $2.00 of earnings or higher.

OB
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