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OneBeacon Insurance Group, Ltd. Message Board

analyst112 87 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 25, 2015 11:45 AM Member since: Mar 30, 2000
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  • Reply to

    can anyone tell me whats happening here today

    by buythisdog Dec 15, 2014 2:12 PM
    analyst112 analyst112 Feb 19, 2015 11:24 AM Flag

    2015 guidance was less than expected. Basically no growth in FFO which means no Div increase. They said mid year that projects got deferred. Clearly there is weakness in rent increases and renewals. I fear this whole cloud and working at home trend can impact office space in the same way it is impacting retail. Time to leave this stock for greener fields.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Feb 19, 2015 10:42 AM Flag

    Nobody wants the platform. That is a scary report. It is old tech. Mobile simply is better and more secure than Wi-Fi. They are burning $16MM/yr which means they have 6 quarters left. If the Board had any sense, they would dividend out most of the cash so shareholders do not end up with zero. As I noted on Feb 6, IPAS worth $1. Now revised to worthless.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • They forgot to sell the 43% interest in UCP. It is now only worth $1.40/shr. They cannot sell it now as housing stocks are out of favor and UCP is unprofitable and illiquid. It is chap 11 in next housing downturn. Mindjet interest is maybe worth $1.00/shr and Canola is worth maybe $1. AG is carried at $7.15/shr and that means a writeoff of $6/shr. BV is a fiction. The cash on the BS and misc is a generous $4/shr and was down about 25% last year as public stocks they owned dropped in value (while the stock market was up 13%) . That leaves the water asset which has a present value of about $5/shr. It's value is growing at about 4% but a buyer would put a 15% discount rate on that. That all adds up to $12/shr but MGT is taking $3.6MM per year in comp. I will look at it again at $11/shr. where it will surely go. Your money. This company is worth following as an HBS study of poor management. You might also note the major holders and avoid their mutual funds as they are just as dumb. I follow this because Hart was portrayed to me as a great investor. Yike! If you see errors in my work, let me know.

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Feb 18, 2015 12:01 PM Flag

    $20MM of cash flow and $350MM of EV. Should be selling at 13x CF or $22/shr. The market price will adjust over time. 2Q 2105 will have trans Profit out. Also mining is still 20% of cash flow and is tied to building cycle.

  • Down 5% in january. Huge Dupont NM plant comes online in January 2016. China TiO2 is getting better and most see little difference. Typical commodity business. No hope here.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Unlike most suits this one details nondisclosure of pre IPO facts. This is actionable as the company did not disclose material information. Gotta fess up when you do a prospectus.

  • Reply to

    IPAS only worth $1/shr

    by analyst112 Feb 4, 2015 11:47 AM
    analyst112 analyst112 Feb 5, 2015 2:41 PM Flag

    There is no upside. They should have distributed the Unity proceeds but knowing that they would need $4-5MM per quarter for burn, they kept it. There is no reason for Boingo to even buy the customers. My Verizon 4G phone has upload speed of 3MB and download of 48MB with two bar reception. That is 8x faster than my Wi-Fi connection. Wi-Fi is near dead with 4G.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Feb 5, 2015 2:08 PM Flag

    Little pricy here at $34.50. It is selling for more than a REIT valuation. Maybe folks are confused about the spin off. Maybe I can borrow some to short.

  • Reply to

    All I know is....

    by ampstock88 Jan 13, 2015 11:32 AM
    analyst112 analyst112 Feb 5, 2015 12:41 PM Flag

    Heath departures are usually noted. It seems he was dismissed. He was in his prime and owned 225,000 shares having bought more in april. I think you wait for the second shoe to drop and that will 4Q earnings or lack thereof. Seems dicey and they have had some growth missteps.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Feb 5, 2015 10:19 AM Flag

    Buying back stock. Retired 1.7% of outstanding stock and more in January. Still has 50% excess capital so earnings can double from here with no capital raise. They will raise div next quarter to $.60 for a 3.5% yield. Stock selling at only 10.3x this years earnings of $1.65 but earnings could be upside surprise as lease volume expands.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Warburg who created Laredo is getting it ready for sale. They own 56 million shares with a cost basis that is much lower than today's price. LPI's choice 250,000 gross acres in the permiam is very valuable. There is no hurry to sell as LPI is hedged clear into 2017 at $80 or higher and no debt is due until 2019. In today's market it should bring at least $23/shr. They are in discussions now for a partial sale that should net over $.5 billion. In 2015 the profit from hedges alone will be $1.3 billion with $.5B spent on capex. LPI sold off too much and is probably being accumulated by a stratigic buyer. Good luck to us. Next stop $15-16.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Feb 4, 2015 11:47 AM Flag

    They will burn $10 million of cash this quarter and last quarter. The franchise is almost worthless as smart phone access is everywhere. Smart phone wi-fi connection access via tablet and laptop makes IPAS obsolete. Smart phone personal hotspot is secure and free. IPAS missed the boat. They will be lucky to anything for the franchise.

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Feb 4, 2015 11:17 AM Flag

    TBV is $20.15 and adding $2.30/ year. In 2016 TBV will be $25 and it should sell at 1.5x TBV or $37. They are already earning 11% on equity. . Stock is very cheap at $26.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Feb 3, 2015 5:52 PM Flag

    Therefore no repeat business. Revs will be declining for years as Hep C population gets cured. Great short.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Feb 3, 2015 12:16 PM Flag

    14 times cash flow of $20 million less debt of $53MM after spinoff = $23/shr. We all assumed trans company would get debt but it stayed with FRP. Now selling for 18x cash flow which is too high given prospects and growth.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to


    by fmalone2013 Feb 2, 2015 10:35 AM
    analyst112 analyst112 Feb 2, 2015 1:44 PM Flag

    Your an idiot. Quote was
    "I don't think that it would be wise for the US or the world to see an actual military conflict between the United States and Russia,"

  • 1.5 times BV is the sell indicator for BRK. It got up to 1.6 in early January.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Charts show this is about to rally...

    by about_that_stock Jan 21, 2015 9:57 PM
    analyst112 analyst112 Jan 30, 2015 1:46 PM Flag

    Good luck-- on its way to $10

  • Reply to

    Needham Sees Take-Out Potential of Yahoo

    by argentindeep Jan 29, 2015 2:24 PM
    analyst112 analyst112 Jan 30, 2015 10:55 AM Flag

    She stupidly forgets to mention that someone would be willing to pay full price for BABA through Yahoo and assume the tax liability. The $35 billion BABA gain and tax liability of $10 billion is not going away. Spinco will sell at a discount to NAV because of tax liability.

  • Reply to


    by kehrmin Jan 29, 2015 9:00 PM
    analyst112 analyst112 Jan 30, 2015 9:30 AM Flag

    There was great confidence in continuing profit growth. Now $.20 cent annual rate and rising. Very confident in account opening product. Going to Europe as new legislation will allow Mobile Deposit. Channel partners like Fiserv already there. Felt like we are safe and secure with lots of growth coming.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

15.21Mar 31 4:03 PMEDT