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OneBeacon Insurance Group, Ltd. Message Board

analyst112 78 posts  |  Last Activity: 17 hours ago Member since: Mar 30, 2000
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  • analyst112 by analyst112 Dec 2, 2014 3:33 PM Flag

    OAS has 960MM of annual cash flow. New lower prices will take away $400 million of that and interest another $160 million leaving $400 million of cash flow in 2015. That assumes prices stay this low for 2015. Interest coverage is 2.7x. They are 60% hedged for 2015 so hedges will add $300million in profit in 2015 above the $400MM. They locked rates at 6.3% until 2019 with no maturities. They have no preferreds. The stock is selling at 4.2 times worst case cash flow of oil at $66. The folks are dumping at any price. Oasis has one of the best land positions in the Bakken and would be a plumb acquisition for any major. Do not fear.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Sep 30, 2014 10:53 AM Flag

    They did not pay income tax last year. This quarter the tax rate was 45% as it paid to catch up taxes. (fed rate is 34%). I only care about EBITDAR and that was up nicely. Revs good, margins good, expenses in line. Headline number is what traders focus on but report is good and the stock will trend up to $13-$15.

    Should not be selling at 5.2x EBITDA. At 8x EBITDA, it would be $18 where it will go in the next year.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    No stock for sale

    by analyst112 Oct 20, 2014 12:04 PM
    analyst112 analyst112 Oct 21, 2014 11:44 AM Flag

    Volume drops each day. The sellers are done. We will now go into accumulation phase. This is a real company with a market leading essential service product. It is worth $15/shr.

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Nov 11, 2014 12:10 PM Flag

    AWFUL! Crushing margins good in canola but they lost money. Also lost money in every segment. UCP is finished. Late to the housing party so it will go bankrupt in the next cycle. With housing finished, demand for water goes in hibernation . They are awful portfolio managers. Shareholders should kick out Hart and get somebody with some common sense.

    PICO should be selling at a 25% discount to NAV to account for negative cash flow for the next several years. With no inflation the assets are declining in value. Target price $15. AVOID!!!

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    3q earnings

    by analyst112 Nov 11, 2014 12:10 PM
    analyst112 analyst112 Nov 11, 2014 12:17 PM Flag

    They are losing money at a $1.36 rate per year. That means BV is declining at an 7% rate. Negative growth.

  • Reply to

    What's UP?

    by ekretiree01 Oct 13, 2014 11:41 AM
    analyst112 analyst112 Oct 13, 2014 12:23 PM Flag

    There are young guns running small cap portfolios. They are getting redeemed and they just dump under performers. That is what creates bottoms. The fundamentals are good at MITEK so that gives me confidence to add.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Sep 24, 2014 11:56 AM Flag

    last Qtr, BE as follows: Non-GAAP net income (loss) for the third quarter of fiscal 2014 was $0.1 million, or $0.00 per share, compared to non-GAAP net income (loss) of $(0.7) million, or $(0.02) per diluted share, in the third quarter of fiscal 2013.

    We are off to the races. Non-Gaap profit this qtr positive, no more litigation expense, cheap stock price, dead wood gone. The stock cannot help but be $5-6 by year end. I have been saying this about HDSN for awhile and same thing happening.

    Cheapest stocks NWLI, CMOH banks to be bought out now at BV with 4% yields. Giddyup.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Are we there yet??? Up $.42/shr

    by whey2play Oct 16, 2014 12:52 PM
    analyst112 analyst112 Oct 17, 2014 11:48 AM Flag

    The middle man like Fiserv charges banks $.50/check and Mitek gets $.10. That is about to change. Mitek can now raise prices as it is embedded in banks PR and OPS. There is no other provider at this time and Mitek has sold software to 1/3 of the U.S. banking industry.

  • Reply to

    no shorts, no buyers

    by analyst112 Oct 14, 2014 9:55 AM
    analyst112 analyst112 Oct 14, 2014 12:10 PM Flag

    They will not be interested until it is $10/shr as they cannot get any sizable position. It is too small now. 200,000 shares is only $380,000. This is an individual stock. Note that 8mm shares do not trade as they are held by insiders and two funds so the whole float is worth $42MM--micro Micro cap. This is all good because one can build a position now and get the upside. Plus there are 4MM shares short so that is built in buying. This is a real deal company. I have met with them.

    I have been a portfolio manager for many years doing small and micocaps. Sometimes a little company comes along that has the potential for big upside. Sure it is always dicey but Mitek has a product (plus 3 other add on products) that they are selling and it is demanded by the market, no competitors yet, recurring revenue, excess cash on BS and soon to be cash flow positive. I think they also have the ability to raise prices 10-20% per year. Obviously the valuation is attractive.

    Number one rule of investing --don't lose your money, #2 rule don't forget #1, #3 patience.

  • Reply to

    It makes no sense for company

    by boardwalk97 Oct 28, 2014 1:30 PM
    analyst112 analyst112 Oct 28, 2014 2:01 PM Flag

    we have to get revenues up to $50 million and then it can be sold for $600MM. It will take 2 years. It is monopoly product with recurring revs and highly prized business plan. 7 bagger from here. We are not day traders but investors.

  • Reply to

    Mitek just beat all expectations!!!

    by nadullah62 Nov 6, 2014 4:23 PM
    analyst112 analyst112 Nov 6, 2014 4:27 PM Flag

    also SGA up 20% has severance in it. Really $.07. 1Q should be $.08 or $.32 annual rate. Stock should be $6 and will get there as short squeeze in place.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • analyst112 analyst112 Oct 17, 2014 11:37 AM Flag

    The new owners are investors. All the short term money and traders have been flushed out. That means the stock is under accumulation and will march higher. The shorts will try to pound the stock to shake free shares so they can cover. Unfortunately for them there is not enough tradeable shares until we get back to $5-6 area. They need 4 million shares. Their bet is Mitek is some sort of promotion. I have met with Mitek twice and this is the real deal.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • analyst112 analyst112 Nov 12, 2014 9:25 AM Flag

    I love the shorts. It's 4.15MM shares of buying demand. That is a lot of stock to buy in an average 300,000 share day.

  • 1.5 times book value is a near term high. Seems like a bad time to add. With KO, IBM, and Mid america under pressure, how can BV be up?

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Just as it was leveraged to upside. Both liquid and illiquid portfolio being hit. Significantly overvalued at 1.52x book value. At 1.3x BV would be $187,000. Folks have flocked to BRK as 90% have underperformed this year and they seek the oracle.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Check volume

    by sage533 Nov 24, 2014 11:28 AM
    analyst112 analyst112 Nov 24, 2014 11:49 AM Flag

    That report showed check volume at 19.4 billion so the market is much bigger than you point out. If they get some of the other parts of the check market, the market is bigger than $700 million.

  • analyst112 analyst112 Dec 10, 2014 1:13 PM Flag

    BRK turning into bubble stock. Most buying because they cannot beat SPX so just by BRK--- Unfortunately his underlying holdings are declining, especially his energy holdings. He also has many cyclical stocks that make BRK more risky.

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Nov 11, 2014 12:40 PM Flag

    No revenues and no products but spending millions on advertising. Down to 4 months of cash then out of money. Here comes the dilutive stock offering at $5. You know this idea is bad when you are putting the transmitter in a dryer and microwave from one second rate company--get serious.

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Dec 3, 2014 10:02 AM Flag

    According to 10Q they are the most hedged of any E&P company. 90% for 2015 and 50% for 2016 and even into 2017. They have $532MM of cash flow. With new lower pricing and less annual interest, $224MM of cash flow and that is without profit from hedges!!!! Has 3x EBITDA coverage after price hit and selling at 5.5 times new lower cash flow. Hedges showed add $250MM of profit. The cheapest one I have found and fully hedged!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • analyst112 analyst112 Dec 3, 2014 11:21 AM Flag

    It is called being efficient. A higher L/D ration is desirable. Most banks have only used a portion of capital as regulations have made them timid to lend. Business deposits grew from $438MM to $1700MM in the last year and may double again this year. Deposits are picking up momentum. All questons are answered if you read the 8K filed yesterday.

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