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CareFusion Corporation Message Board

analyst112 43 posts  |  Last Activity: May 20, 2015 2:00 PM Member since: Mar 30, 2000
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  • analyst112 by analyst112 May 20, 2015 2:00 PM Flag

    The customer goes to WFM and TFM because they do not need to read labels. Everything is organic. Unfortunately, the supermarkets have caught on. Ralph's and Von's in CA have tripled their organic sections. I no longer go to WFM as my needs are met in traditional stores with all their extra offerings. The WFM/TFM niche is being eroded and with prices so much higher, they will now begin to lose market share. WFM is selling at a big cash flow premium to the SPX and has a lower ROE. With growth slowing, that cannot last for long. TFM is a little cheaper but still valued at $10MM/store or 12x cash flow. Their store prices are higher than WFM. They will now bump up against WFM smaller format stores.

  • analyst112 by analyst112 May 20, 2015 12:43 PM Flag

    Now in survival mode. Fired marketing, CFO and other execs. Other key people will leave shortly as hand writing on the wall--slow decline to nowhere. product offering is obsolete and cellphone internet access speeds up and is secure. Ipas missed the boat.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • analyst112 by analyst112 May 20, 2015 12:36 PM Flag

    Cash flow is $12MM/year and MV is $83MM. Very low debt. stock is 6.8x cash flow -.to be inline with the trucking industry, the stock should be $$45--lots of upside

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • analyst112 by analyst112 May 19, 2015 3:09 PM Flag

    margins up, cash flow up, number of customer additions up 40%, only selling at 12x EBITDA @ $2.50 based on company projections plus building cash as capex limited. Open ended growth. Love the prospects. Had a big run in last month so natural that day traders dump some shares. Buying more.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    it is time for new management?

    by chelsea10011 Apr 1, 2015 9:41 AM
    analyst112 analyst112 Apr 1, 2015 3:39 PM Flag

    No clue what they are doing---student housing is a very tough market and requires boots on the ground. These guys are financial guys. I own student housing and we are there r every day.

  • Reply to

    Not in compliance means can go bankrupt

    by sage533 Apr 1, 2015 3:12 PM
    analyst112 analyst112 Apr 1, 2015 3:22 PM Flag

    Very bad as no CEO, no CFO and lots of dirty laundry turning up. They overpaid for Copper Beech and now are finding that out.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Mar 25, 2015 11:45 AM Flag

    17x cash flow is very high plus 20% of cash flow is from cyclical gravel pit. I see no upside.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Mar 25, 2015 11:15 AM Flag

    More food. More no growth--Kraft is old school and new school is organic. Warren has lost his imagination. BRKA will underperform SP as it has almost no new economy stocks, biotech, IT,--things that grow. His stock picks are also not working.

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Mar 25, 2015 9:50 AM Flag

    The AFC will kick in this year in a bigger way. They will get reimbursement on the population that was uninsured. 40% of transports are unpaid. The leverage is pretty big and it all goes to the bottom line. While estimates have gone up, there will be upside surprises this year. Stock has not been this cheap in awhile at 13x next years earnings. That is below the SPX PE for a company with organic growth, 28% ROE and 9% ROA and an inflation hedge.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    is this a 2016 play?

    by dbtunr Mar 13, 2015 10:43 AM
    analyst112 analyst112 Mar 24, 2015 11:42 AM Flag

    $30mm of cash flow is 13.5 cash flow multiple. That is very reasonable for the expected growth. Stock should be at $10. I believe ORBC will be acquired after the OG2 launch.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    is this a 2016 play?

    by dbtunr Mar 13, 2015 10:43 AM
    analyst112 analyst112 Mar 24, 2015 11:38 AM Flag

    ORBC has 14 more OG2's ready for launch probably this year. There is no such thing as 2016 play. ORBC is heading toward being a major company in M2M. The leverage is huge when everything is launched, This is a multi billion company. You can mess around with cherry picking the timing but that will no doubt leave you behind.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Mar 24, 2015 10:20 AM Flag

    Next Q will be much better than estimates of $.03 This is not a seasonal business and they earned $.05 last Q non-gaap. We could get a nice surprise. The real juice comes when they start to raise prices. Banks are paying around $.40/check but are saving $1.50/check as branches close and tellers are reduced. Fiserv and Jack Henry are the main software providers and they in turn pay Mitek. A $.01/check price increase results in 10% EPS growth for Mitek and goes right to the bottom line. Since they are now built into this sticky software, it is about time as there are no competitors. Mitek has big upside. MGT also feels the insurance quote and account opening markets are bigger than Mobile Deposit and are being currently offered.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Mar 20, 2015 11:14 AM Flag

    CMOH and NWIN are far cheaper than most banks and yield 3-4%. They both have better ROE and ROA than most regionals and will most likely be acquired in the next two years. ROE's over 10% and never any TARP money.

  • Reply to

    18 TRILLION

    by fmalone2013 Mar 17, 2015 7:50 PM
    analyst112 analyst112 Mar 20, 2015 10:59 AM Flag

    That is $50,000 per person not $450,000

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Mar 20, 2015 10:51 AM Flag

    "Market is "hyper" over priced. Pretty scary when Fed Board member says something like that.

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Mar 20, 2015 10:00 AM Flag

    Rates will rise and bank stocks will fly. BAC and C good bets. Also two regional banks earning 1% on assets and 10% ROE with 3-4% yields. Fifty plus percent upside--CMOH and NWIN.

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Mar 20, 2015 9:37 AM Flag

    CMOH and NWIN both selling at book value and earning 1% on assets and 10% on equity. Both have 3-4% dividends. Should have 50% upside.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Mar 18, 2015 2:24 PM Flag

    Poor forecast of no growth in FFO. That means no growth in dividends. FFO has been flat for awhile. The stock just bounces around with FED rate expectations. When rates do rise I guess we get hammered.

  • Reply to

    What the heck is the story now?

    by nadullah62 Mar 17, 2015 2:26 PM
    analyst112 analyst112 Mar 17, 2015 3:39 PM Flag

    This is simply a mutual fund blowing out its position. They buy relative strengh and do not invest. MITK is on its way to $.20/shr in earnings this year, has $.90/shr in cash and still has the ability to raise prices dramatically. In addition it has a new product in account opening and insurance quotes that could be bigger than Mobile Deposit.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Link shutdown

    by jpnmqrtn Mar 14, 2015 8:52 PM
    analyst112 analyst112 Mar 17, 2015 12:22 PM Flag

    I have same problem--need to google message board