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TravelCenters of America LLC Message Board

analyst112 55 posts  |  Last Activity: 15 hours ago Member since: Mar 30, 2000
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  • CMOH is really cheap. They will also raise Div next report. Selling at 8.7x (ex LI proceeds) and 1x BV where other regionals are at 1.6x BV. Now in small cap stock index. Buying back their stock. Earnings growth is organic and not from Loan loss changes. Sitting duck for takeover.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Selling at BV in an environment where regionals are selling at 1.6x BV. earnings ramping up and running at $3.16 annual rate. Stock is 9.3x earnings. Dividend will be raised on next declaration. Stock yields over 4% on that $.30 dividend. Loan portfolio in good shape, Very cheap bank. CMOH is actually even cheaper. They will also raise Div next report. Selling at 8.7x (ex LI proceeds)and 1x BV.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • analyst112 by analyst112 May 30, 2016 12:09 PM Flag

    Working capital deficit is $46MM, LT debt is $46MM, lease incentives and other liabilities is $81 million. Market cap is therefore $284 million. That makes the company 8x EBITDA. It is too leveraged with little capability to borrow. With Same store sales dropping 3-4%/year, it is recipe for disaster. They bought back stock at $14 in 2015 and now it is $8 and they are buying more. It is not a good buy until they fix the BS. The have negative free cash flow. Who is managing this mess? There food model is completely out of line with modern cuisine of light and healthy. no Bravo.

  • analyst112 analyst112 May 26, 2016 9:56 AM Flag

    Not even close. He agreed to stay through the IPO and landed a President's job at a very good company. He has been planning to upgrade. These days accounting is hardly an issue as the management is personally libel.

    They are forecasting $65MM of EBIDA. The stock is selling at 9x EBITDA and 18x earnings. That is cheaper than the S&P500. The are taking ad market share from everyone. The are growing at 50% plus. This is great buying opportunity.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • analyst112 by analyst112 May 25, 2016 1:15 PM Flag

    I understand the 15' product and its potential but this approved contact product is like my toothbrush. It needs to make contact--worthless.

  • analyst112 by analyst112 May 23, 2016 12:16 PM Flag

    Burning $6MM per quarter. They will be on the ropes by year end unless they have an offering soon. The offering will not be at $10----more like $7.

  • analyst112 by analyst112 May 16, 2016 9:50 AM Flag

    Not worth $200 million market cap. Niagen is a nutritional supplement. These come and go. Amazon feedback shows 20% of users see no benefit. There are no ethical studies. This is more a promotional than a real company. Beware.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Earnings will be awful tonight

    by sage533 May 12, 2016 1:48 PM
    analyst112 analyst112 May 13, 2016 10:20 AM Flag

    Suggest you buy GPS. Even if EPS down 30%, they still have EBITDA of $1.5B. Dividend is safe and yield is 5.3%. The are buying in 10% stock each year. The have better BS than Nordys. Stock at low right now at $17.45 GPS will be taken out by PE this year.

  • Reply to

    $18 is the bottom.

    by sage533 May 12, 2016 10:23 AM
    analyst112 analyst112 May 13, 2016 9:54 AM Flag

    even if pretax is down to $1B from $1.6B, Ebitda is $1.6B. The stock is 4.5x EBITDA. PE firms will buy it, fix it, and flip it. The dividend is safe and the have plenty of money to buy back shares.

  • Reply to

    Earnings will be awful tonight

    by sage533 May 12, 2016 1:48 PM
    analyst112 analyst112 May 13, 2016 9:23 AM Flag

    Worse than I thought. Suggest $33 as Nordy's has no plan and guidance is just awful. Amazon is sucking traffic out of the mall. JWN online is doing poorly according to MGT. With no good plan, they are left with discounting and that is killing margins.

    The stock purchase plan looks foolhardy now. How could they screw this up.

  • Reply to

    Now worth less than bottom of 2008.

    by osubuck30 May 11, 2016 11:34 AM
    analyst112 analyst112 May 12, 2016 9:48 AM Flag

    $1.95B of cash flow. 3.9x EBITDA. Private equity will scoop it up. Even if they do not, GAP is so debt light it can buy back the 20% of the float each year and keep the dividend. It is still very profitable--just not growing. Cash is king.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Nice, what an awesome report yet again!!!!

    by skiselev81 May 11, 2016 4:23 PM
    analyst112 analyst112 May 12, 2016 9:44 AM Flag

    and oh yes---cannot service its massive debt load. goodbye

  • Reply to

    Nice, what an awesome report yet again!!!!

    by skiselev81 May 11, 2016 4:23 PM
    analyst112 analyst112 May 12, 2016 9:42 AM Flag

    Out of money, cash flow negative, negative current ratio, poor management, no growth---goddbye

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • analyst112 by analyst112 May 9, 2016 9:58 AM Flag

    Top of housing cycle and no profits. They cannot survive a down turn. You also have PICO dumping its stock to save itself.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • I wanted to buy this but--
    This is perhaps the riskiest REIT in the universe. They are massively over leveraged. The preferred shares must be counted as quasi debt as they are senior to the common in both dividends and liquidation and are redeemable. If you count the preferred (looks like $438MM) as debt and $735MM of funded debt, they have over $1.2B senior to the common. The total asset are only $1.3B. The lenders consider the preferred as equity so management says the debt equity ratio is just 60%. The real debt to common ration is more like 92%.
    In addition, there is massive dilution from all the warrants issued with the preferred--over 50% dilution plus any stock options. Add on the shelf registration for common. The dividend increases are a ridiculous attempt to get the stock price up.
    The portfolio is a mix of weird assets. Student housing is about the most risky of apartments. Universities tend to build their own housing with 3% municipal bonds and undercut rents. I know about this as I am an owner of a student apartment. In addition, most of the apartments are new and purchased recently at very high prices. Why do they have a loan portfolio of over $300 Million? I think I know the reason.
    The management Company, Preferred Apartment properties, LLC is controlled by the executives of the REIT. Your CEO is the manager. Last year APTS paid them $14million in fees from everything from fees on asset purchases to fees on all assets, property management and G&A fees. That is up from $8.7MM in 2014. These fees are in addition to $5.9MM in other expenses in 2015 that they incurred and charged to the company. They even charged $800,000 for raising capital. To add insult, the were also issued $2.36MM in equity compensation. This is like the Portnoys who have ravaged Government Properties, Travel Centers of America, and Select Income REIT. Sam Zell threw them out of Commonwealth. These guys appear to be following that same model.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • analyst112 by analyst112 May 6, 2016 11:51 AM Flag

    Probably about liquidated. That is the trouble with stock having 70% institutional ownership. They act like a herd. Some broker tells all of them things are weak and they sell. They all act together falling all over themselves getting the last 1/8th . So far, we have had 25% of the float turned over to new holders. We are close to the bottom. RUBI is now becoming a value play at 8.4x EBITDA and 14x earnings for 2017. Too much upside to sell. I think I will add right here at $14.30

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    MV has doubled

    by rcsam May 4, 2016 9:56 AM
    analyst112 analyst112 May 4, 2016 10:02 AM Flag

    In the bun.

  • analyst112 by analyst112 May 2, 2016 1:49 PM Flag

    If you like NCBS you will love CMOH and NWIN. 1% ROA and 11% ROE selling at BV with 4% yields.

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Apr 27, 2016 10:10 AM Flag

    No revenues from deal until end of Q4. That means losses for next 3 quarters and money burn. #$%$!

  • Reply to

    New directors won't help.

    by analyst112 Mar 18, 2016 2:33 PM
    analyst112 analyst112 Apr 25, 2016 10:05 AM Flag

    not much. Losing money at top of housing cycle. It will probably go bankrupt in the next slump.

TA
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