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The Brink's Company Message Board

analyst112 45 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 27, 2016 10:10 AM Member since: Mar 30, 2000
  • Reply to

    still 9x EBITDA

    by uhuh24 Mar 15, 2016 11:09 AM
    analyst112 analyst112 Mar 15, 2016 11:21 AM Flag

    Looks like it is headed to $10. $6B of EBITDA is optimistic. Banks will pull LOC and company will have liquidity crisis. Out of $6B, the have $1.8B of interest payments. If EBITDA drops more, they are in default on coverages.

  • analyst112 analyst112 Mar 15, 2016 11:17 AM Flag

    You are correct. Business plan failed--no marketing equals lower sales. Bondholders end up with company.

  • Reply to

    Ridiculous now

    by awesomeone1955 Mar 15, 2016 11:09 AM
    analyst112 analyst112 Mar 15, 2016 11:15 AM Flag

    Bond holders will end up with company. They will have no earnings in 2016.

  • Reply to

    Forward pe under 4

    by jrkkek Mar 15, 2016 11:10 AM
    analyst112 analyst112 Mar 15, 2016 11:13 AM Flag

    Earnings estimates are out the window. Lucky if they earn anything. Model failed--no marketing budget.

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Mar 15, 2016 10:56 AM Flag

    They could go out of business. 21% of portfolio in VRX at 12/31/15. Stupid people managing trusting folks money. Not one brokerage says sell at 12/31/15.

    VRX finding M.D.s do not want their drugs. Marketing is the life blood of Pharma and VRX eliminates that.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Mar 14, 2016 9:57 AM Flag

    lower eps expectations again. Their non-gaap earnings are a joke. They have excluded just about every cost line. They are losing money, biz is slow, and the just made a huge acquisition. Only time will tell if that works--I have my doubts. Danaher dumped this biz on them.

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Mar 10, 2016 11:11 AM Flag

    20x earnings for low single digit growth. 3x BV. Ametek has seen its better days and now is trying to grow by acquisition and leverage. There are better stocks elsewhere.

  • Commercial Bancshares (CMOH) is selling at $29.15 with book value of $30.50 at 12/2015. It has a yield of 3.5%. The have a 1% return on assets and a 10.2% return on equity and just 10x earnings and 9x 2016 earnings. Stock should be much higher. Pretty thin stock but upside big. If they sell out ,it will be at 2x BV or $60/shr.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • CMOH is selling at BV with a yield of 3.5%. 1% ROA and 10.2% ROE and 10x earnings. Stock should be 50% higher. No lose investment.

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Mar 10, 2016 10:08 AM Flag

    Selling coal biz at bottom and also Dacar. Selling assets is like firing your last ammunition at a charging army. The coal business was worth $1B 2 years ago. Their timing is horrible. With $2.8 in debt that it cannot service, Chapter 11 is close. They would need a sustained rise in iron ore to make it and that is a bad bet. The senior debt will end up with the company. If you are hoping for a recovery, remember hope is not an investment strategy.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Mar 10, 2016 9:47 AM Flag

    at 22x earnings for 2016, it is just too expensive. The are supporting the stock with purchases and when that runs out, down she goes. SSS are poor and in the whole industry. If the economy weakens, this gets slammed. Better entry point $35

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Mar 9, 2016 12:08 PM Flag

    The are growing by acquisition and organic growth but the earnings numbers are not high enough to support the stock. Fully taxed earnings for 2015 are mere $.14 making the stock 55x earnings. They pay no taxes and got positive gain from taxes in Q4. The will pay no taxes in 2016. The are selling at 36x 2016 earnings fully taxed. The management is also siphoning off too much in options and shared based comp. $16MM last year out of $40MM of income. I think we will just tread water for 1-2 years while earnings catch up to the stock price.

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Mar 8, 2016 9:21 AM Flag

    CEO takes 4% of net income. Outrageous! Avoid.

  • Reply to


    by santa6anita Mar 2, 2016 1:33 PM
    analyst112 analyst112 Mar 4, 2016 9:52 AM Flag

    Worse than that. It has only 5 quarters of cash left and then it goes bankrupt. Delisting is the least of its problems.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Market will open down 1.5%. ISM says numbers will be weak. Economy is rolling over according to Rick Santelli

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Mar 3, 2016 10:52 AM Flag

    Even subtracting out the cash, it is 30x 2016 earnings and these are untaxed earnings. Some of its markets are going South. The Ebola sales are not repeatable in 2016. I like that it is now profitable but-----

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Terrible long term bet

    by analyst112 Jan 21, 2016 2:23 PM
    analyst112 analyst112 Mar 1, 2016 11:47 AM Flag

    Sam Zell threw them out of Commonwealth and cancelled the management contracts. It is just a matter of time before Govt. properities, Select Reit and TA and HPT get raided by private equity. The fees charged the above are a complete rip off. The contracts will be cancelled and RMR will blow up. The Portnoys are dumping there RMR stock on the unsuspecting new investors.

  • Reply to

    more bad news

    by analyst112 Feb 29, 2016 12:52 PM
    analyst112 analyst112 Feb 29, 2016 1:11 PM Flag

    The remaining cash of $11MM is pledged for indemnification of the AG business. If that is called, they will have a forced sale of water assets or UCP. Since income is mere $800,000 for the nine months from continuing ops, they will burn their cash quickly. This is a true house of cards.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • PICO owns 57% of UCP and is running out of money. PICO needs to raise funds and all the have left is UCP stock. 57% coming on the market will drive UCP to $1/shr. In addition UCP has $175MM of debt coming due next year and no cash flow to repay it. This PICO/UCP setup is house of cards. AVOID.

  • analyst112 by analyst112 Feb 29, 2016 12:52 PM Flag

    More write-offs. It is truly unbelievable that Hart is still CEO. I would not like to be on this Board when the lawsuits get going. What justification is their to keep renewing Hart's employment contract. There is not one profitable business segment and most assets have been written off.

    During the nine months ended September 30, 2015, the Company recorded a $20.7 million impairment loss on the investment in Mindjet (Spigot) common and preferred shares as the estimated fair value was less than the carrying value due to significantly increased, and continuing operating losses and resulting liquidity issues,

    During the nine months ended September 30, 2015, the Company recorded an impairment loss to write down the value of capitalized development costs related to its oil and gas wells.

    The value of PICO's UCP is down to $27million so they will have another write off. BV just keeps dropping. UCP will be bankrupt soon as they have $150MM of debt due in 2017 and lost money through the last 9 months. Losing money at the peak of the housing cycle. Goodby $27MM. They cannot sell UCP as nobody wants this failing business.

    They are also just about out of money.. At September 30, 2015, we had unrestricted and available cash of $11.5 million and available-for-sale debt and equity securities of $907,000, which could be used for general corporate purposes. They will burn this up in 9 months. Since they have no income, nobody will lend them money. They will have to start dumping UCP stock which drive it down to $1/shr. seems like good short.

33.84-0.22(-0.65%)Apr 29 4:02 PMEDT